March 6th Market Overview

Happy Friday

The economy lost 92,000 jobs in February and oil closed above $90. Both moved fast and both caught Wall Street off guard. Days like this are when it pays to slow down and look at what's actually happening vs. what the headlines want you to feel.

There's a lot of noise right now between the jobs miss, the Iran conflict, and crude ripping higher. Worth noting the heavy volume coming out of the indexes in the final hour today. That kind of late selling typically signals gap downs. I took some VXX to hold over the weekend and expect more red and volatility into next week.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. February Jobs Report Misses Big 
   
   We actually lost jobs in February. Nobody on Wall Street expected an outright contraction. Manufacturing, healthcare, leisure, and construction all shed workers. A 31,000-person Kaiser Permanente strike dragged healthcare down, but the weakness was broad. This is the fifth month of job losses in the last nine.

2. Oil Breaks $90 on Supply Destruction 
   
   Crude closed at $90.90 to cap off its biggest weekly gain in futures trading history. Trump posted on Truth Social that there will be no deal without Iran's unconditional surrender. Kuwait is shutting in production because their storage is completely full. Qatar's energy minister warned oil could reach $150 if the Strait stays closed.
   

3. BlackRock Gates Private Credit Fund BlackRock 
   
   $BLK limited withdrawals from its flagship private credit fund for the first time. Investors asked to redeem more than double the quarterly cap. Private credit has been one of the most crowded trades over the last two years. I'm watching closely to see if other major funds face similar liquidity pressure.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Marvell Technology $MRVL ( ▲ 18.22% )  
beat earnings expectations on heavy AI chip demand. Revenue came in at $2.22 billion. Management sees revenue growth accelerating every quarter next fiscal year.

Boeing $BA ( ▲ 4.08% )  
is reportedly negotiating with China for an order of 500 737 Max jets. A deal that size would be a major signal for both trade relations and Boeing's recovery.

Costco $COST ( ▲ 1.67% )  
posted a clean beat on retail sales and membership fees. Membership revenue hit $1.36 billion. The consumer is still spending at the warehouses.

Big Name Updates

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▼ 4.23% )  
launched a publicly traded venture fund giving retail investors access to private companies like Databricks and Revolut. Shares opened at $25 and fell to $22 on day one.

Target $TGT ( ▲ 0.32% )  
is catching bids on its turnaround strategy. New leadership pushing store remodels and doubling the retail media network within five years. Golden cross on the chart with strong support at $99-$100.

Nike $NKE ( ▼ 1.75% )  
announced a $300 million charge tied to layoffs and cost cuts across the company.

Other Notable Company News

CF Industries $CF ( ▲ 4.46% )  
hit a new 52-week high. Fertilizer stocks are running because more than a third of raw materials travel through the Strait of Hormuz.

United Airlines $UAL ( ▼ 3.52% )  
CEO Scott Kirby warned spiking fuel will take a real bite out of first-quarter results. Delta $DAL and Southwest $LUV fell in sympathy.

Western Alliance $WAL ( ▼ 8.47% )  
dragged regional banks lower. Every single stock in the KBE bank ETF finished red. The ETF fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time since November.

Ciena $CIEN ( ▼ 1.09% )  
upgraded to buy at Bank of America with a $355 price target. The analyst called the optical networking buildout a "super-cycle" running through 2027.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasurys whipped back and forth today. The ugly jobs print initially sent yields lower, but the crude rally quickly reversed that move on fresh inflation fears. The 2-10 spread widened to 57 basis points, which is why bank stocks got crushed. The bond market doesn't know what to price in first right now: a slowing economy or an energy shock.

Policy Watch

Fed 
Chicago's Goolsbee openly warned about stagflation today. He said piling an energy shock on top of tariff uncertainty could rival the big supply shocks of the past, and those tend to stick around. San Francisco's Daly said the jobs report "has got my attention" but stopped short of committing to cuts. The market now prices in only one or two cuts this year, down from three a week ago.

Iran & Energy Response 
Washington is scrambling to cool oil prices:

• Treasury eased Russian sanctions, letting India buy stranded crude and reopening transactions with Rosneft's German branch

• U.S. Development Finance Corporation announced a $20 billion reinsurance facility to get tankers moving through the Strait

• Trump pushing the Navy to escort oil tankers, though analysts question feasibility given the volume that normally passes through

Tariffs 
The legal fight is escalating. A trade court judge ordered the administration to refund more than $130 billion in collected tariffs. Twenty-four states filed a separate lawsuit challenging the new global tariff. After the Supreme Court ruling, Trump set a global rate at 10% then bumped it to 15% the next day.

Macro 
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker dropped to 2.1 from 3.0 on Monday. That's a model, not a forecast, but the direction is clear.

What to Watch

CPI Next Week 
Inflation data will land in a completely different context now. Any upside surprise locks the Fed in place. Any downside probably won't matter with oil where it is.

The Helium Squeeze 
Qatar's shutdown cuts off a third of the world's helium supply. Chipmakers need this gas for semiconductor manufacturing. All three of Qatar's production facilities are offline. Spot prices already climbing fast. If repairs take weeks, tech hardware supply chains face real bottlenecks.

Shipping Route Abandonment A.P. Moller-Maersk 
$AMKBY and Hapag-Lloyd suspended key Middle East container routes entirely. The U.S. is trying to stand up a reinsurance program and naval escorts for commercial ships. The question is whether tankers actually accept the escort or refuse the risk.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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