March 5th Pre-Market

Jobs Just Went Negative. Oil Won't Stop.

Author

J.L. Bernstein
March 06, 2026

In partnership with

Good morning.

No sugarcoating today. The economy just shed 92,000 jobs and oil is above $86 heading into the open. That's not a great combo no matter how you slice it. The Iran conflict is now day seven with no real end in sight and it's showing up everywhere, energy, sentiment, you name it.

I think the market has been holding up better than it should.

Let’s dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil Has No Ceiling And No Policy Fix 

WTI topped $86. Brent is above $89. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut. Qatar declared force majeure after Iran hit Ras Laffan, and its energy minister said every Gulf exporter follows within days. The White House is throwing everything at this. India got a 30-day waiver to buy Russian crude. Treasury looked at intervening in futures and backed off. Trump floated navy escorts but the volume math doesn't work.

2. February Payrolls Just Came In Negative 

The economy shed 92,000 jobs against a 58,000 gain expected. Unemployment ticked up to 4.4. Average hourly earnings came in hot at 0.4 month-over-month. That's a labor market cracking while wages refuse to cool. Retail sales also missed, down 0.2 against a 0.3 decline forecast.

3. The Rate Cut That Was Left Just Died 

A month ago markets were pricing a July cut. A week ago it slipped to October. After this morning's negative payrolls print with 0.4% wage growth and oil above $86, that last cut is gone. Fed funds futures are now pricing no cuts in 2026. The economy is slowing and inflation is reheating. That's math for stagflation. Waller and Daly both speak today and the market needs to hear something because right now the Fed has nothing good to say.

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Marvell Technology $MRVL ( ▲ 18.22% )  

Beat Q4 with $2.22 billion in revenue and 80 cents adjusted earnings, both above estimates. Management said revenue growth accelerates every quarter in fiscal 2027 on data center demand. Bookings at record pace.

Raised full year guidance well above the Street. Sees 65 to 69 cents in adjusted earnings versus the 59-cent consensus and revenue of $1.97 to $1.98 billion versus $1.92 billion expected. AI workflow automation is the new pitch.

Missed Q4 earnings by a penny at 45 cents on $4.24 billion in revenue. Athleta sales declined. Management flagged tariff pressure on the full-year outlook, which matters more than the penny miss.

Caught a new headline. U.S. officials are drafting export licensing rules for AI chips that could require government approval for most international sales. Not final yet. Retail keeps buying anyway. Vanda says $1.58 billion in net retail inflows over five days.

Occidental Petroleum $OXY ( ▲ 1.45% ), Exxon $XOM ( ▲ 0.3% ), and Chevron $CVX ( ▲ 0.05% )  

All catching a bid as domestic producers are the cleanest way to play a prolonged Hormuz closure. If crude stays above $85 these names have room to run.

Guidewire Software $GWRE ( ▲ 5.12% )  

Crushed Q2 estimates. Earned $1.17 adjusted versus the 77-cent consensus on revenue of $359 million versus $342 million expected. Under the radar insurance software name putting up blowout numbers.

What to Watch

Oil Into The Close 
Qatar said all Gulf exporters will halt shipments within days. If that holds, oil doesn't stop at $89. Watch whether energy stocks keep rising with crude or start fading. If they fade while oil keeps climbing, the market is betting this ends soon. If they move together, buckle up.

Trump-Xi Summit Setup (March 31 to April 2)
Bessent and He Lifeng are meeting in Paris before the summit. Soybeans and Boeing $BA aircraft are on the table. Beijing backed Tehran publicly and Washington just killed Khamenei. That's an awkward dinner.

AI Chip Export Controls 
U.S. officials are drafting rules that would require government approval before shipping AI chips to most countries. Big data center builds could need clearance at the national level. Nothing is final but if this moves forward it changes where AI infrastructure gets built and every major chipmaker is exposed.


Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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Note: This newsletter is intended for informational purposes only.