March 5th Market Overview

Happy Thursday

Iran's foreign minister came out and said they're not looking for a ceasefire, which is not great from a macro pov. I think people are still underestimating how long Hormuz stays shut and what that does to everything downstream. Software names finally caught a bid after getting destroyed all year, funny how a war makes "boring" reoccurring revenue models look attractive again.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil rips as the Strait of Hormuz goes dark 
Thousands of ships are trapped in the Persian Gulf. Asian refiners are scrambling for alternative supply and Saudi Aramco started rerouting crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Iran's foreign minister said they're "not asking for a ceasefire." If this drags on, the Fed's rate cut plans are dead in the water, and the bond market is already pricing that in.

2. Washington tightens the leash on AI chips 

The U.S. drafted new rules requiring approval for AI chip exports anywhere in the world, not just the 40 countries currently restricted. Companies building large clusters may need to open their doors for government site visits. Separately, Nvidia stopped producing China-bound H200 chips and shifted that capacity to its next-gen Vera Rubin platform.

3. Berkshire puts its cash to work 

Greg Abel restarted corporate buybacks and used his entire take-home pay to buy $15 million in shares. Said he consulted directly with Buffett on both timing and intrinsic value. When the guys sitting on $373 billion in cash finally start buying, I’m taking note.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Broadcom $AVGO ( ▲ 4.89% )  
beat earnings and now sees AI revenue north of $100 billion by FY27, well above the roughly $85 billion consensus. AI revenue more than doubled this quarter.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 0.15% )  
fell on the export restriction report. CEO Jensen Huang said their $30 billion OpenAI investment "might be the last" before the startup goes public.

Trade Desk $TTD ( ▲ 18.75% )  
ran hard after The Information reported early talks with OpenAI to partner on ChatGPT ad sales.

Big Name Updates

Morgan Stanley $MS ( ▼ 3.11% )  
is cutting roughly 2,500 jobs across all three divisions. That's about 5,500 total under CEO Ted Pick in just over a year.

Delta Air Lines $DAL ( ▼ 4.31% )  
and United Airlines $UAL took heavy losses. Airlines are flying gas stations. When crude breaks higher, they get punished immediately.

Kroger $KR ( ▲ 5.4% )  
bucked the selloff. New CEO Greg Foran (ex-Walmart) wants to cut costs and lower prices. Said Kroger barely imports anything directly and that needs to change.

Wells Fargo $WFC ( ▼ 2.0% )  
got its final consent order from the fake-accounts scandal terminated by the Fed. Nearly a decade of remediation, finally closed.

Other Notable Company News

Salesforce $CRM ( ▲ 4.36% )  
and Intuit $INTU caught a bid as investors rotated back into software. The group has been beaten down all year relative to semiconductors.

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▼ 2.64% )  
is rolling out an invite-only credit card with a $695 annual fee, heavy travel perks, and over $1,000 in annual credits.

Okta $OKTA ( ▲ 11.24% )  
beat on earnings but gave a soft outlook for the current quarter.

Iris Energy $IREN ( ▼ 8.47% )  
ordered 50,000+ Nvidia B300 GPUs, bringing its planned fleet to 150,000 units.

United States Antimony $UAMY ( ▼ 4.7% )  
got $27 million from the Department of War to expand domestic antimony processing in Montana and Alaska.

Today’s Sponsor

Elon Musk Already Made Wealthy

Years ago, I got into a Tesla-heavy fund before anyone believed in him. That single bet turned into nearly a seven-figure position in less than a decade.

Now I'm betting on Elon again - with SpaceX.

Bloomberg is calling it "the biggest listing of ALL TIME." A $1.5 TRILLION valuation. A "millionaire-maker" event!

I believe Elon will announce the IPO on March 26, 2026. And I have an "access code" that lets you get a stake in before it happens.

Click Here to See How to Secure Your "SpaceX Access Code"

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields rose for a fourth straight day. The math is simple. Higher energy prices mean stickier inflation, which means rate cut bets are getting pulled fast. Futures now show less than a 50/50 chance of two or more cuts this year, down from 79 percent just last week.

The ECB's vice president said an extended war could force a change in their policy stance too.

Policy Watch

Iran Conflict 
Iran's foreign minister said flatly they're not seeking a ceasefire. Polymarket bettors now put the odds of one by March 31 at just 24 percent, down from above 60 percent after the initial strikes. Defense Secretary Hegseth said the U.S. is "winning decisively" and more forces are arriving.

Trade

• Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed the 15 percent global tariff will likely take effect this week

• Trump threatened to "cut off all trade with Spain" after Madrid refused to let U.S. forces use its bases for Iran strikes

Energy Supply

• The White House is pushing to boost Venezuelan oil imports to offset Middle East disruptions. Trump posted that "oil is beginning to flow from Venezuela"

• China ordered major refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports to protect domestic crude supply

• Venezuela's state miner signed a deal to sell gold to Trafigura for U.S. markets. The U.S. interior secretary urged American firms to tap Venezuelan gold reserves, which pressured gold prices

Asia 
South Korean lawmakers warned that rising energy costs could undermine the price competitiveness of their semiconductor industry. Samsung and SK Hynix both recovered after Wednesday's historic selloff.

What to Watch

February Jobs Report 
Nonfarm payrolls drop tomorrow. Bond markets just went from pricing in a 79 percent chance of two or more rate cuts to below 50/50 in a single week. A hot number on top of $80 oil essentially kills rate cuts for the first half of 2026.

Strait of Hormuz 
Most important variable in markets right now. Polymarket puts ceasefire odds by March 31 at just 24 percent, down from 60 percent after the initial strikes. Every day it stays shut, storage fills and producers run out of places to put crude. Dan Niles flagged $100 oil as the recession trigger.

Global Tariff Activation 
Bessent confirmed the 15 percent global tariff likely goes into effect this week. Flying under the radar with Iran headlines dominating but it hits at the worst time for a market already worried about inflation.

Costco Earnings 
Reports this week. I want to see if shoppers are trading down into bulk buying as gas prices spike. That tells you a lot about how fast energy costs are changing consumer behavior.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

This Could Be the ‘Starbucks of Flowers’

Starbucks brought the premium coffee experience to every street corner and grew to a $110B market cap. The Bouqs Co. is using the same playbook, but for the floral industry.

While they are already a dominant force in e-commerce, the company is now launching 70+ retail stores nationwide. This expansion is designed to capture the $18 billion U.S. flower market through a first-of-its-kind national chain of floral studios.

In counties where Bouqs stores have already opened, the brand has seen a staggering 100% year-over-year growth. That’s because each retail location acts as a profit-driving billboard and a high-efficiency fulfillment center. These shops also unlock high-margin event services and same-day delivery that traditional online-only competitors simply cannot match.

With individual store revenues reaching up to $1.2 million annually, the "Bouqs Flywheel" is in full effect. The company is already EBITDA positive and inviting the public to join their national scale-up.

Now is your opportunity to join Bouqs and invest in this floral retail revolution.

Invest in The Bouqs Co.

^{This is a paid advertisement for The Bouq’s Regulation CF offering. Please read the offering circular at https://invest.bouqs.com/}