March 4th Pre-Market

Asian markets break. Hormuz is closed.

Author

J.L. Bernstein
March 04, 2026

In partnership with

Good morning.

Earnings season rolls on. Broadcom tonight. Costco and Alibaba later this week. None of it matters until the Iran situation finds a floor. Around 4 AM, the NYT reported that Iranian officials quietly contacted the CIA about ending the fighting. Futures turned positive on the headline. Asian markets took the worst of it overnight.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. The Strait Is Still Shut. Everything Else Is Talk. 

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. That's the only fact that matters right now. Bessent went on CNBC this morning to say DFC is insuring tankers and the Navy is on standby. Iran reportedly reached out to the CIA through a back channel to discuss ending the conflict. U.S. officials are skeptical. None of this has moved a single ship. Until tanker traffic resumes, oil stays elevated and every other asset prices off it. The binary today is simple: does something physical change or doesn't it.

2. Bonds Are Selling Off With Stocks. That Breaks The Playbook. 

In a normal crisis, money flows into Treasuries. That's not happening. Yields are climbing because the market is pricing energy-driven inflation over safety. Gold fell yesterday for the same reason. The traditional 60/40 hedge failed. If ISM prices-paid confirms energy pass-through this morning, the rate-cut timeline gets pushed into the fall. That reprices equities across the board, starting with rate-sensitive sectors.

3. Asia Just Showed What A Real Energy Shock Looks Like.

Korea had its worst trading day in history. Circuit breakers fired twice. Samsung and SK Hynix are half the index. Their factories run on imported Middle East energy. Japan dropped. Dubai reopened after two days dark and sold off right away. The pattern is clear. Countries that buy their energy from the Gulf are getting repriced first. If the Strait stays shut, European manufacturing names are next in line.

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Broadcom $AVGO ( ▼ 1.56% )  

Reports after the close. Street is watching AI revenue mix and forward guidance. Asia's chipmaker selloff overnight raises the bar for a clean print.

Settled patent litigation with Arbutus $ABUS ( ▲ 0.43% )  and Roivant $ROIV ( ▼ 0.89% )  for $950 million. Arbutus and Roivant selling off premarket. Moderna up. The legal overhang is gone. Watch for analyst price target revisions today.

Guided for slower annual sales growth. AI coding tools are the competitive threat. This is the first clear signal that AI is cannibalizing traditional dev platform spend.

CrowdStrike $CRWD ( ▲ 1.71% )  

Beat on earnings. AI-driven cyber threats expanding the addressable market. Watch for follow through above recent highs.

Strategy $MSTR ( ▼ 3.61% )   

Higher as Bitcoin rebounds from its early week selloff. Coinbase and Robinhood moving with it. Direction depends on whether crypto holds the bounce or rolls over with risk sentiment.

Guided 2026 operating profit to 2.3 billion euros, about 15 below consensus. 400 million euro hit from U.S. tariffs and currency. Fresh 52 week low. Nike and Puma stuck in the same rut. No catalyst to break the group out.

What to Watch

Bessent: More Gulf Oil Measures Coming (Any-time Today)

Treasury Secretary went on CNBC this morning to talk oil down. DFC is already insuring crude carriers. Navy escorts are on standby. Bessent called the market "very well supplied" and pointed to record U.S. production. Words are cheap. Watch if tankers actually move.

Mortgage Rates Whipsawed 

30-year fixed sat at 6.09 last week, lowest since 2022. Refi applications hit a three-year high. Then rates shot higher Monday on the Iran strikes. Housing had a window. It may already be shut.


Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

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