March 4th Market Overview

Happy Wednesday


Markets took a beating early before recovering some ground.

Day five of the Iran conflict and the market rallied. Bessent promised naval escorts and ship insurance for Gulf tankers, oil stopped going up for the first time all week, and traders decided the worst was behind them today. I'm not so sure about that yet but things are looking more promising every hour.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil Stabilizes but the Damage Underneath Is Real

Brent crude settled around $81 after Bessent announced plans for ship insurance and Navy escorts through the Strait of Hormuz. But the relief might be premature. Iraq has slashed production by over 1.5 million barrels a day because it's running out of storage. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on its LNG contracts, signaling no restart soon. Goldman says Brent hits $100 if Hormuz stays blocked five more weeks.

2. South Korea Posts Worst Day Since 1985 

The Korean stock exchange fell a record amount on Wednesday(last night), bringing two-day losses to roughly 18%. Samsung and SK Hynix both got hit hard on fears that energy costs will crush chip margins. Before this week, the index was up 48% on the year. Dubai and Abu Dhabi reopened with steep losses after a two-day trading halt.

3. 15% Global Tariff Starts This Week 

Bessent confirmed the new tariff replaces the existing 10% duty and lasts 150 days while agencies produce studies for permanent measures. He predicted rates would come back down within five months. That's a bold call when you're layering trade costs on top of an energy shock and diesel prices at their highest since October 2023.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Big Name Updates

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 1.68% )  
saw billionaire Leo KoGuan buy another million shares on Tuesday. Whale buyers keep stacking this name on any weakness.

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.39% )  
revealed new MacBook Pro lines powered by M5 Pro and M5 Max chips. Oppenheimer says the new Fusion Architecture gives Apple a significant lead in local AI compute.

Meta Platforms $META ( ▲ 1.85% )  
is building out an applied AI engineering body to support its superintelligence work.

Oracle $ORCL ( ▲ 2.38% )  
was added to Mizuho's top picks list with a $400 target. The analyst sees Oracle locking in its position as the fourth hyperscaler.

CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▲ 7.69% )  
signed a multiyear deal with Perplexity to power its next-gen inference workloads.

Other Notable Company News

Dow $DOW ( ▲ 5.25% )  
and LyondellBasell $LYB both got upgraded to overweight by KeyBanc. The analyst flagged that up to 15% of global ethylene capacity is directly tied to the Iran conflict, which benefits U.S. producers.

Visa $V ( ▼ 0.0% )  
is expanding its stablecoin card partnership with Stripe-owned Bridge to over a hundred countries.

Applied Digital $APLD ( ▲ 9.62% )  
priced over $2 billion in senior secured notes to fund its Polaris Forge campus.

Newmont $NEM ( ▲ 0.81% )  
landed an overweight initiation from JPMorgan on strong free cash flow and a bullish gold outlook.

Nebius $NBIS ( ▲ 12.62% )  
got city approval for a gigawatt-scale AI data center campus in Independence, Missouri.

Bath & Body Works $BBWI ( ▲ 2.21% )  
said its refocus on core products like candles and body care is working. Shares moved higher.

Today’s Sponsor

I Met Elon Musk "Face-to-Face"

During a private gathering of Wall Street elites, I was one of two people selected to speak with Elon personally.

As a result, my research now leads me to believe Elon will announce the SpaceX IPO on this date:

March 26, 2026. Circle it on your calendar.

I'm sharing an "access code" that lets anyone grab a pre-IPO stake before it happens. This is your invitation to the biggest wealth-building event of the decade.

Click Here to See how to Get Your "SpaceX Access Code"

Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year yield climbed to 4.089% as inflation expectations from the energy shock keep building. Vanguard sees only one rate cut in 2026. The market is pricing in two. Someone is wrong.

Policy Watch

Fed Trump officially transmitted Kevin Warsh's nomination for Fed Chair to the Senate. If confirmed, he replaces Jerome Powell.

Tariffs The 15% global tariff replaces last month's 10% duty and takes effect this week. Bessent says it lasts 150 days while agencies produce studies for permanent measures.

Iran & Energy ( alot to unpack here)

• Hegseth said the war could last up to eight weeks but might end sooner

• Iranian intelligence operatives reportedly reached out to the CIA about ending the conflict, per the NYT. Iran later denied it.

• U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship with a torpedo, the first torpedo sinking since World War II

• U.S. and Israel expect complete control of Iranian skies within days

• Iraq cut output by 1.5 million barrels a day as storage fills up

• QatarEnergy declared force majeure on LNG contracts

• Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, and CMA CGM all halted bookings to the Gulf

• An LNG tanker bound for Europe reversed course to Asia as a bidding war for energy begins

• Goldman projects Brent hits $100 if Hormuz stays blocked five more weeks

• Diesel futures hit their highest since October 2023

Crypto 
Trump demanded Congress pass the Clarity Act and attacked banks for holding it hostage. Kraken Financial won a Federal Reserve master account, the first crypto firm on the Fed's core payment rails. Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000.

International

• South Korea's Kospi posted its worst day on record, losing roughly 18% in two days

• Dubai and Abu Dhabi reopened with steep losses after a two-day halt

• Turkey intercepted a ballistic projectile launched from Iran

• Spain and the U.S. clashing over air base access. Trump threatened to sever trade ties.

Defense 

Lockheed Martin and RTX
execs are heading to the White House Friday to discuss accelerating weapons production. The Pentagon is preparing a $50 billion supplemental budget request to replenish munitions. Separately, OpenAI is in talks with NATO about deploying AI on unclassified networks.

What to Watch

Broadcom Earnings Tonight 
Street expects $2.03 EPS on $19.18 billion in revenue. I want to hear management's read on custom silicon demand and AI infrastructure spend.

Friday Jobs Report 
ADP came in at 63,000 private jobs for February, beating estimates. The official number Friday matters more. Strong wage growth could kill rate cut hopes.

Strait of Hormuz 
The White House wouldn't commit to a timeline for when the Strait will be safe. If tankers don't start moving soon, oil goes to $100. This is the single biggest macro variable right now.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

“The Biggest Gold Mine in History”

That’s what NVIDIA’s CEO said investors in AI are tapping into. And market experts say it could send stocks for companies that create robots, aka physical AI, soaring on a "multi-year supertrend."

But 39k+ investors aren’t waiting for Wall Street. They're backing a private company NVIDIA hand-picked to help build the future of restaurant kitchen AI robots: Miso Robotics.

Miso’s Flippy Fry Station AI robots have now logged 200k+ hours cooking at fry stations for brands like White Castle, frying 5M+ food baskets. With NVIDIA sharpening Miso’s tech, Ecolab making a strategic investment, and a new manufacturing partnership secured, Miso’s scaling its robot production to meet this $1 trillion industry’s demand.

100k+ US fast-food locations are in need, a $4B/year revenue opportunity for Miso. Become an early-stage Miso shareholder today and unlock up to 7% bonus stock.

Invest in Miso Today

_{This is a paid advertisement for Miso Robotics’ Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.misorobotics.com.}