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- March 3rd Pre-Market
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Good morning.
Ugly morning gapdown.Monday's dip buy rally is gone. Overnight, Iran hit the U.S. embassy in Riyadh with drones, Israel said it destroyed Tehran's leadership compound, and Qatar's biggest LNG plant went dark after an Iranian strike.
The VIX is up and the war volatility is now showing up in every asset class.
Let's dig in...
Today's Big Picture
1. The Energy Crisis Just Got Bigger Than Oil
QatarEnergy shut down Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG export facility, after Iranian drone strikes. European gas futures hit a three-year high. Major insurers canceled war risk coverage for ships in the Persian Gulf, so even undamaged routes are frozen. Monday was about oil. Today it's oil, gas, shipping, and insurance all breaking at once.
2. The Short-War Bet Is Losing
Monday's rally was built on one idea: this ends fast. Overnight, Israel hit Tehran's command centers. Trump won't rule out ground troops. The VIX crossed 25 for the first time since November. Futures gave back everything. The market isn't trading the war. It's trading how long it lasts. And the answer keeps getting longer.
3. The Dollar turns into a Safe Haven, Not Gold
Gold fell sharply after a four-day rally. When oil costs more, the world needs more dollars to buy it. The U.S. is a net energy exporter, so a supply shock actually strengthens the greenback. Gold is also physically stuck with Dubai's airport hit and UAE airspace closed. In a crisis, the world still runs on dollars.
Market Overview
Today’s Sponsor
That's when I'm predicting Elon Musk will announce the SpaceX IPO... in what Bloomberg is calling "the biggest listing of ALL TIME."
And I've found a 'backdoor' way to grab a Pre-IPO stake... BEFORE Elon makes the big announcement!
At a $1.5 TRILLION valuation... that would be 3,000 times bigger than Amazon's IPO.
This is a "millionaire-maker" event...
Stock Spotlight (pre-market)
MongoDB $MDB ( ▼ 1.05% )
Down a quarter in this morning. Guidance missed on both lines. AI disruption fear is real for this name now.
Target $TGT ( ▼ 0.55% )
Beat earnings, $2.44 versus the $2.16 estimate. New CEO hosts investor day today. Fourth straight quarter of falling traffic though and comps went negative while Walmart $WMT posted a 4.6 gain. Prove it stock.
Palantir $PLTR ( ▲ 5.82% )
Eight analyst upgrades last month, a $10 billion Army contract, and a war that validates their entire business. One of the only S&P 500 names working this week.
Best Buy $BBY ( ▼ 0.61% )
Beat on Q4 earnings, $2.61 versus the $2.47 estimate. Revenue slightly light. The stock needed a win and got one.
Pinterest $PINS ( ▲ 2.04% )
Popping this morning after Elliott disclosed a $1 billion stake. The money goes straight into an accelerated share buyback. Activist plus buyback is a combo the market pays up for.
Cheniere Energy $LNG ( ▲ 5.6% )
Climbing as Europe scrambles for gas after the Qatar shutdown. Indonesia said this morning it's sourcing crude from the U.S. instead of the Gulf. American energy exporters are the backup plan now.
What to Watch
Trump Energy Relief Announcement (Today)
The administration said a plan to offset rising consumer energy costs drops today. Could be a Strategic Petroleum Reserve release. Could be subsidies. No details yet. If it's big enough to move oil even a few dollars, the whole tape reacts.
Fed's Williams, Schmid, Kashkari (Today)
All three speak today. The market needs to hear how the Fed is processing $85 oil on top of already-hot input prices. Any hawkish lean on inflation and September rate cut pricing gets pushed back further.
Strait of Hormuz Shipping
An Iranian commander said on state TV overnight that forces will set fire to any ship that tries to pass. The U.S. military's Central Command disputes the closure. But it doesn't matter when no insurer will write the policy. Watch for any commercial vessel attempting transit today. That's your signal.
CrowdStrike Earnings (After The Bell)
$CRWD ( ▲ 3.46% ) Reports tonight. AWS said multiple Middle East data centers were knocked offline by drone strikes this week. Cyber and infrastructure resilience just went from boardroom topic to front-page reality.
Thanks for reading 🙂
- John
Today’s Sponsor
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