March 31st Pre-Market

The off ramp headline doesn't match the troop count.

Author

J.L. Bernstein
March 31, 2026

In partnership with

Good morning.

Q1 ends today. The S&P is closing out its worst quarter since 2022. Energy is the only sector in the green. And three companies just announced multibillion-dollar acquisitions before breakfast.

That is the market right now. Fear and dealmaking today. Trump wants out of Iran but is fine leaving Hormuz closed. Gas crossed $4 this morning. Two big econ prints land at 10 AM.

Let’s dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. $4 Gas Changes the Fed Math 

Gas hit $4.02 nationally this morning, up a dollar in a month. Diesel at $5.45. This is now a consumer spending, corporate margins, and inflation expectations problem all at once. Powell flagged Monday that anchored expectations are "essential," and if today's confidence number cracks, the no-cuts-in-2026 consensus gets tested fast.

2. Trump Wants Out but Hormuz Stays Closed 

Sunday, Trump said Iran agreed to "most of" his demands and a deal was close. Hours later he threatened to bomb every power plant, oil well, and Kharg Island if Hormuz stayed shut. Monday, the WSJ reported he privately told aides he would end the war without reopening the strait at all, because forcing it open would mean another four to six weeks of fighting. Last night, Iran set a fully loaded Kuwaiti tanker on fire off Dubai.

This morning, Rubio went on Al Jazeera and said objectives would be met in "weeks, not months" but did not explain how Hormuz reopens without a military push. That is the core contradiction. The off-ramp talk assumes someone else solves the strait. Nobody has volunteered.

3. Three Deals Before Breakfast 

Unilever and McCormick are near a $60 billion food merger. Biogen is paying $41 for Apellis, more than double Monday's close. Eli Lilly is acquiring Centessa at a steep premium. Correction-level prices are bringing out buyers with checkbooks.

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

McCormick $MKC ( ▲ 1.23% )  
up premarket on advanced merger talks with Unilever's food unit. The deal includes $15.7 billion in cash with Unilever shareholders owning 65 percent of the combined company. An announcement could come today.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals $APLS ( ▲ 0.71% )  

More than doubled overnight. Biogen $BIIB ( ▲ 2.03% )  is buying it at $41 a share. Monday's close was $17.09. That is a rare full takeout premium in this market.

Centessa Pharmaceuticals $CNTA ( ▼ 3.9% )  

Up sharply after Eli Lilly $LLY ( ▲ 0.96% )  agreed to acquire it at a steep premium. Lilly is now on its second biotech deal in recent months.

Climbing as tech bounces on the war off ramp headline. Citi says sustained higher yields and energy costs are bad for AI names. I would not chase this one until oil settles down.

Reports after the bell. Forward guidance is the only line that matters with gas above $4. Authentic Brands has also expressed interest in buying the struggling Converse brand.

Upgraded to buy at Deutsche Bank. Their thesis: every headwind in spirits is already priced in. Worth watching if you think the consumer is more resilient than the sentiment data suggests.

What to Watch

JOLTS and Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM ET)

Both drop at 10. First real labor and sentiment data since the war started. Soft JOLTS gives the Fed cover to cut. A weak confidence read confirms the $4 gas consumer is cracking. Friday's jobs report is the main event but this morning sets the tone for the week.

Fed Speakers (Throughout the Day) 

Goolsbee, Bowman, Barr, and Schmid. Powell said Monday the Fed can wait but inflation expectations must stay anchored.

Gold (Month End Positioning) 

On track for its worst monthly drop since October 2008. Goldman still targets $5,400 by year end on low positioning and central bank demand.


Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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