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- March 30th Pre-Market
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Good morning.
Futures are green but I'm skeptical of the optimism. Trump says a deal with Iran is close. Iran says the proposals are "unrealistic." 50k troops are in the region and Houthis just officially entered the war. The peace talk headlines don't match the troop count.
JOLTS, ISM, and payrolls all drop this week. First real economic data since the war started. I think that tells us more than any Truth Social post.
Let’s dig in…
Today's Big Picture
1. The Bond Market Just Changed Its Mind
Since the war started, bonds sold off. The logic was simple. Oil goes up, inflation goes up, rates go up. That trade reversed today. The 10-year dropped to 4.37. Investors are now buying bonds because they think high oil prices will kill growth, not just raise prices. Goldman put recession odds at 30. Money markets have priced out every Fed cut this year. Before the war, two cuts were expected. The market went from fearing inflation to fearing a slowdown. That's a big shift in five weeks.
2. Iran Hit Aluminum Smelters.
Iran struck Emirates Global Aluminium in Abu Dhabi and Aluminium Bahrain over the weekend. EGA reported "significant damage." Combined output: 3.2 million tons a year. Smelters take months to restart. LME inventories were already at 20-year lows. European billet premiums are up 63 percent since the war started. This hits aerospace, autos, packaging, solar, construction. More importantly, this is the first time Iran targeted non-oil industrial infrastructure in allied Gulf states. New playbook.
3. Peace Talks Aren't Matching The Troop Count
Trump says Iran accepted "most of the points." Iran's Baghaei said this morning the proposals are "unrealistic, unreasonable and excessive." 50,000 U.S. troops are now in the region. One official told I24 News that forces for a "significant ground operation" will be in place by next week. Houthis pledged to join Iran and are threatening to close the Bab el-Mandeb, which carries another 6-9 million barrels a day toward Europe.
Polymarket puts ceasefire by May 31 at 46 percent. Futures are green because traders want to believe. The troop count says believe the Pentagon.
Market Overview
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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)
Alcoa $AA ( ▲ 1.41% )
Up big in premarket and this is not a one-day trade. With two Gulf smelters damaged and inventories at two-decade lows, Western aluminum producers are suddenly the only game in town.
Sysco $SYY ( ▼ 1.02% )
Moving premarket after announcing a $29.1 billion deal to buy Jetro Restaurant Depot. That is a massive check to write in a market where credit conditions are tightening. The company says it's accretive immediately. The tape disagrees.
CrowdStrike $CRWD ( ▼ 5.87% )
Picked up two analyst endorsements this morning. Wolfe upgraded to outperform and Morgan Stanley named it a top pick. The stock has been beaten down all year so there's room to recover.
Exxon Mobil $XOM ( ▲ 3.36% )
Higher again as Brent holds above $115. The Financial Times reported that TotalEnergies made a large trading profit off the Middle East disruption. Every major is printing cash at these prices.
BJ's Wholesale $BJ ( ▼ 0.93% )
Down sharply before the bell on reports of weak mid-year consumer spending. If households are pulling back with oil above $100, that shows up in every discretionary name within weeks.
Peloton $PTON ( ▲ 8.85% )
Extending Friday's rally after hedge fund manager Eric Jackson highlighted it as an opportunity. Momentum names with short interest are moving on any whiff of a catalyst right now.
What to Watch
Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Houthis pledged to join Iran and are threatening to close it. That's another 6-9 million barrels a day and 10-12 percent of global trade. If that closes, the oil move so far looks like a warm-up.
Iran's Deadline On The University Strike (Today)
Iran gave the U.S. until end of day March 30 to condemn the Israeli strike on an Iranian university. If that passes without response, Iran says U.S. universities across the region become fair game. Watch for headlines tonight.
Ground Operation Timeline
One U.S. official told I24 News that sufficient forces for a "significant ground operation" will be in place by start of next week. 50,000 troops are already in the region. If this leaks further, oil gaps up.
Fed Chair Powell Speaks (Today)
The bond market just pivoted from inflation to recession pricing. Powell has to tell us which one worries him more. His tone sets the week.
Thanks for reading 🙂
- John
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Note: This newsletter is intended for informational purposes only.