March 27th Pre-Market

Good morning.

Trump pushed the Iran deadline back 10 days. Oil stayed above $110. Futures gave up gains.

Here's what's bugging me…. Iran blocked Chinese ships from Hormuz overnight. China is their ally. If Beijing can't get through, nobody's getting through. Pentagon is reportedly looking at another 10,000 troops and Iran called the US proposal "one-sided and unfair."

I think the extension bought time but zero conviction. Indexes headed for their fifth straight losing week.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Iran Extension Fails to Land 

Trump pushed the ceasefire deadline to April 6. Iran called the US proposal "one-sided and unfair." Israel hit weapons facilities overnight anyway. Oil stayed above $110. Futures gave up early gains. Here's the loop that matters: no deal means constrained supply. Constrained supply keeps oil elevated. Elevated oil means the Fed can't cut. That chain is running the market now.

2. Bonds Price Stagflation Risk

Two months ago traders priced two rate cuts. Now there's a 70% chance of hikes. The 10-year yield just hit its highest level since July. The Fed is staring at supply-driven inflation while the labor market refuses to break. They can't ease. Hiking slows growth. That's how you get stagflation. Both stocks and bonds hate that environment.

3. Iran Blocks Even China From Hormuz

Two Chinese container ships tried to cross the strait overnight. Iran turned them back. China is Iran's closest ally. Iran said weeks ago that friendly nations could pass through. Now even Beijing can't get through. Trump said Iran let 10 tankers through this week as a "present." But Iran just rejected its own ally. The strait isn't selectively closed. It's shut. The negotiation narrative this week doesn’t make sense with stuff like this going on.

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Unity Software $U ( ▼ 3.76% )  

Raised first quarter guidance for adjusted EBITDA to $130-135 million from $105-110 million. The company is exiting advertising and divesting game publishing.

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▼ 1.37% )  

Down 24% for the quarter. On track for worst performance since 2008. Trading below 20 times forward earnings for the first time since 2016. Two problems: massive AI spending without clear revenue acceleration and fear that AI agents replace core software business.

Coinbase $COIN ( ▼ 4.26% )  

Down early premarket after Bitcoin fell another 3%. Risk appetite is gone and crypto gets sold first.

AstraZeneca $AZN ( ▼ 2.0% )  

Up after experimental lung disease drug met primary goals in two late-stage trials. The drug reduced how often patients' symptoms worsened.

Carnival $CCL ( ▼ 1.75% )  

Reports before the bell. Watch guidance closely. Fuel is their second-biggest cost after labor and oil just went vertical. If they can't pass costs through, margins collapse.

EOG Resources $EOG ( ▲ 2.99% )  

Leading energy names higher as Brent crude trades above $110. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for weeks. Nearly 500 million barrels of oil lost according to Rystad Energy.

What to Watch

Pentagon Troop Decision 

Reports say Defense Department is considering up to 10,000 additional ground troops for the Middle East. That signals Trump is preparing for escalation even while talking peace. Watch for official confirmation.

G7 Ministers Meet Today in France 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and counterparts discuss the Iran war. Any coordinated diplomatic push could move markets. The longer this drags on, the more economic damage piles up.

Oil Supply Buffer Exhausted 

Rystad Energy says the global system shifted from buffered to fragile after weeks of inventory drawdowns. Nearly 18 million barrels per day of flows through the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted. Any new supply shock has nowhere to be absorbed.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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