March 25th Pre-Market

Good morning.

The U.S. sent Iran a 15-point ceasefire plan overnight. Oil fell. Futures are green. The market wants this war to be over.

Maybe it will be. Iran needs to acknowledged the proposal and come back with a deal. The strait is still closed. Missiles still flew overnight. What the market is pricing and what is actually happening on the ground are two different things right now.

That gap starts to close today as both sides seem to be working towards de-escalation.

Let's dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. A Deal Is Being Priced. Not Confirmed.

The U.S. sent Iran a 15-point ceasefire plan through Pakistan. Three countries are pushing for direct talks. Oil dropped five handles. Brent is below $95 for the first time since the strait closed. This is the most diplomatic progress since the war started. The strait is still shut. Missiles are still flying. Today is a one-variable session. Tehran responds and risk stays on. Tehran stays silent or rejects it and this morning's move reverses. Every asset class is tied to that answer.

2. Arm Is Now Selling Chips Against Its Own Customers.

Arm $ARM revealed its first in-house chip, the AGI CPU, targeting $15 billion in revenue by 2031. That is 4x their total revenue last year from a single product.

Arm has always been the architect, not the builder. Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, Google all design chips on Arm's blueprints. Now Arm is competing with them directly. Meta is the first buyer. OpenAI, Cloudflare, and SAP are signed on. Citi called it the most significant shift in the company's history. This reshapes the AI hardware map and it is not a one-day story.

3. Two Cuts to Zero to a Possible Hike. In Three Weeks.

That is what happened to rate expectations since the war started. It is the fastest repricing since 2022. Mag 7 names are all green this morning, riding the ceasefire optimism. But the underlying rate picture has fundamentally changed. If oil stays elevated through Q2, the Fed is stuck. Multiples compress. Margins get squeezed by energy costs. Real-world stress is already showing up with fuel shortages in Australia and the Philippines.

The good news: this works in reverse too. If the ceasefire holds and oil keeps falling, the rate path reopens.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

CF Industries $CF ( ▲ 5.61% )  

Down almost 4% premarket. This is a pure war unwind trade. Fertilizer prices ran hard after the Strait of Hormuz closed and CF rode that up 27 points. The ceasefire proposal is pulling the rug out.

EchoStar $SATS ( ▲ 1.23% )  

Moving premarket on reports that SpaceX could file its IPO prospectus this week. EchoStar holds a 3 percent stake in SpaceX. Destiny Tech100 $DXYZ ( ▲ 9.27% ), which holds SpaceX as its largest position, is up 18 points. The filing itself is the catalyst. Once it drops, every name with SpaceX exposure reprices. Watch for the headline.

Braze $BRZE ( ▼ 4.76% )  

Beat Q4 revenue at $205.2 million versus the $198.2 million estimate and guided the current quarter above consensus. Earnings missed at 10 cents versus 14 but that is noise next to a revenue beat plus a raise. This is a growth name re establishing momentum.

Newmont $NEM ( ▲ 0.9% )  

Gold snapped a nine-day losing streak yesterday and is extending gains this morning. If the ceasefire trade holds and oil keeps falling, inflation fears ease, and that is fuel for gold and miners. Newmont is the largest gold miner in the world. It moves with the metal.

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▼ 4.7% )  

Up in premarket after announcing a $1.5 billion share buyback. Buybacks at this size put a floor under the name. Worth watching whether it attracts momentum today.

Terns Pharmaceuticals $TERN ( ▲ 0.79% )  

Being acquired by Merck $MRK ( ▲ 0.6% )  for $53 per share in cash. That is $6.7 billion. The premium is only 6 points over Tuesday's close, which means arb spreads are tight and the market sees this closing cleanly in Q2.

What to Watch

SpaceX IPO Filing (Could Drop This Week) 

If the prospectus lands, largest IPO in history. Target valuation around $1.8 trillion, larger than Tesla. Rocket Lab $RKLB ( ▼ 2.84% ) , Intuitive Machines $LUNR ( ▼ 11.77% ), and AST SpaceMobile $ASTS ( ▼ 1.63% )  might move with sympathy moves.

Iran's Next Move 

The single most important variable today. Every asset class keys off Tehran. If they engage with the proposal, the relief rally has legs. If they reject it, the morning reverses.

Gold Snapped Its Nine Day Losing Streak 

Gold is up nearly 3 points. UBS sees the recent selloff as a buying opportunity driven by forced liquidation and fading demand.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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