March 24th Pre-Market

Good morning.

Yesterday's rally was built on Trump's claim of productive talks with Iran. Overnight, fired missiles at Israel, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Brent is back above $100 and futures are giving back most of yesterday’s move. A president going from "obliterate their power plants" to "let's talk" in 48 hours tells me the White House wants this to end.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. The Five Day Window

Iran hit Israel, Bahrain, and Kuwait overnight. Kuwait lost power lines. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now taking steps toward entering the conflict. That's three new countries moving closer to active involvement in 24 hours. Trump paused strikes on energy infrastructure and called it progress. Iran responded with more missiles. U.S. officials told the NYT the contacts are "very early stage and not substantive."

2. Oil Is Volatile. The Physical Market Is Worse. 

Brent has swung $15 in three days. That's what you can see. What you can't see is worse. S&P Global estimates 6.5 to 7 million barrels per day are offline, heading toward 8 to 9 million. Chevron's CEO said this conflict has done more damage to energy supply chains than Russia-Ukraine. Japan is releasing emergency reserves this week because Asia is running into real shortages.

3. Someone Traded Billions Before Trump's Post 

Bloomberg reported that futures worth billions changed hands in the 15 minutes before Trump's Truth Social post on Monday. About 6 million barrels of oil were sold in two minutes starting at 6:49 AM. The five day average for that window was 700,000 barrels.

Over $2 billion in S&P futures traded in the same stretch. The identities aren't known.

Market Overview

Today’s Sponsor

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Jefferies $JEF ( ▲ 3.72% )   

The FT reported Sumitomo Mitsui has a team working on a possible takeover. They already own a minority stake and the stock is near 52-week lows. This changes from a beaten-down bank to a live M&A situation.

Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 2.32% )  
Two stories today. Zoox is expanding its robotaxi service to Austin and Miami, with 100 vehicles on public roads once it scales. They're also waiting on NHTSA approval to run 2,500 cars commercially. Separately, AWS reported more service disruptions in Bahrain from Iranian drone activity. One side of the business is building the future. The other side is getting hit by the war.

Netgear $NTGR ( ▲ 5.85% )  
The FCC banned imports of new foreign-made consumer wireless routers. The government just cleared the competitive field overnight. Meaningful catalyst for a small name.

Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 3.5% )   

Posted its first monthly sales gain in Europe in over a year. Worth noting given the political headwinds the brand faces overseas.

Estee Lauder $EL ( ▼ 7.72% )   

Confirmed it's in talks to acquire Spanish perfume maker Puig Brands. Dropped Monday on the news but edging higher this morning.

Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI ( ▲ 9.39% )  

New volume order from a major hyperscaler for 800G AI data center transceivers. Small name, but it tells you AI infrastructure spending is still alive while everything else feels fragile.

What to Watch

Flash PMIs (9:45 ET)

First real read on whether the war is showing up in U.S. business confidence. This is the most important data point of the day. It shapes the rate outlook and the growth narrative going into Q2.

Fed Governor Michael Barr Speaks

With cuts priced out, the question is whether anyone on the board is thinking about hikes. Barr's tone today gives us a read on where the internal debate stands.

Trump's Friday Deadline

The five day window is the main event for the week. Progress before Friday and you get a real relief trade. No progress and the strike threat comes back. Every Iran headline between now and then will move the tape.

Thanks for reading.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

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