March 23rd Market Overview

Happy Monday

We finally got the headline everyone wants, over the weekend. Trump paused the Iran strikes for five days to allow for talks. Oil sold off hard, equities caught a massive bid, and the bond market took a deep breath. I'm glad for the relief, but I'm not deeming this as the beginning of the end until we see actual ships moving through the Strait again.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

The Five-Day Window 

Trump backed off his weekend ultimatum to destroy Iranian power plants. He's giving diplomacy a five-day runway after citing productive talks. This triggered an immediate relief rally across every major asset class. But Iran's foreign ministry denied direct talks are even happening. One bad headline breaks this market right back down.

Crude Gives Back The War Premium 

Oil fell out of bed the second Trump's post hit Truth Social. Brent dropped below $100 for the first time in days. WTI settled near $88. The paper market is selling off aggressively, but physical supply remains tight. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said fuel markets in Asia are much tighter than futures suggest. Even in a best case, Société Générale sees oil holding around $75 at year-end… well above the $70 level before the war started.

Wall Street's Reality Check 

The market is cheering today, but the math from the last few weeks is still doing damage. Goldman Sachs bumped recession odds to 30 out of 100, citing the energy shock and tightening financial conditions. Traders now see a 57-in-100 chance of at least one Fed rate hike this year, up from zero a week ago. Gold is officially in a bear market, down more than 20 from its all-time high.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B ( ▼ 0.16% )  
taking a $1.8 billion stake in Japanese insurer Tokio Marine through its National Indemnity unit. The partnership includes collaboration in reinsurance and potential acquisitions. Buffett keeps expanding his Japan footprint.

Synopsys $SNPS ( ▲ 2.89% )  
caught a bid after Elliott Investment Management revealed a multibillion-dollar position. The activist firm wants to squeeze better margins out of the chip-design software maker.

DraftKings $DKNG ( ▲ 1.2% )  
and Flutter Entertainment $FLUT both moved higher after the WSJ reported on a bipartisan Senate bill that would ban prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket from taking sports wagers.

Big Name Updates

Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 3.54% )  
led the Mag Seven higher. Over the weekend, Elon Musk unveiled Terafab — a joint venture with SpaceX and xAI to build an in-house semiconductor fab in Austin. Initial cost: $20-25 billion. Timing is interesting with a potential SpaceX IPO coming around the corner.

Meta Platforms $META ( ▲ 2.17% )  
keeps leaning into AI. Mark Zuckerberg is having his team build a custom AI agent specifically to help him run the company.

Chevron $CVX ( ▲ 1.67% )  
CEO Mike Wirth warned that physical fuel supplies are tighter than futures traders realize, especially diesel and jet fuel in Asia. He also said pumping more oil out of Venezuela will require major legal overhauls down there.

Other Notable Company News

Super Micro Computer $SMCI ( ▲ 5.99% )  
recovered some ground today after last week's hammering over federal charges against a co-founder for alleged Nvidia chip smuggling to China.

Carnival $CCL ( ▲ 5.51% )  
and the major airlines caught a massive tailwind as fuel cost fears eased. American Airlines $AAL and United Airlines $UAL both rallied hard.

Air Canada $AC ( 0.0% )  
is dealing with a tragic ground collision. A regional jet operated for the carrier struck a firefighting vehicle at LaGuardia last night, killing two pilots.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields dropped across the entire curve after Trump's post. The 10-year retreated to 4.33 after touching 4.42 earlier in the session. The 2-year briefly hit its highest level since June 2025 before pulling back below 4.

Global bonds have lost over $2.5 trillion in value during March alone. CME FedWatch now shows a 71-in-100 chance the Fed holds rates steady through year-end. I'm watching how yields react from here… if physical oil markets don't loosen up as fast as the headline traders hope, this relief in bonds won't last.

Policy Watch

Fed 

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee laid it out plainly on CNBC. If the oil shock reignites inflation, the central bank will have to hike. If inflation cooperates, cuts are back on the table. Fed Governor Stephen Miran still backs four rate cuts this year. The Fed itself is split right down the middle. More speakers throughout the week.

Middle East & Energy 

Trump's 5-day pause gives diplomats a narrow window. He floated "joint control" of the Strait of Hormuz with Iran — a concept that didn't exist 48 hours ago.

The big question nobody is asking: the U.S. likely insists Hormuz oil transactions clear in dollars, not yuan. Some Chinese refiners already pay Iran in yuan, and Washington wants to avoid that spreading.

• Energy Secretary Chris Wright called the war a "short-term disruption"

• The White House has released 400 million barrels from the strategic reserve

• Sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude at sea have been temporarily waived

International 

European markets whipsawed hard. Germany's DAX went from down 2 to up 2.5 in a single session. Investors now price in almost four rate hikes from both the ECB and Bank of England this year. Before the war, the ECB was expected to hold and the BOE was expected to cut. Goldman says the conflict will subtract 0.4 points from global GDP. That number could double or triple in a worst case.

What to Watch

Iran Negotiations (5-Day Clock)
Trump's strike pause expires this weekend. If talks collapse, we're right back where we started. The market will trade every headline between now and then.

Tuesday: PMI Data 
First major survey of business conditions since the war began. This tells us if businesses are pulling back or holding steady.

S&P 500 Rebalancing 
AI hardware plays like Vertiv $VRT, Lumentum $LITE, and Coherent $COHR are replacing older names. That tells you where capital is flowing.

Oil Price Floor 
Peter Boockvar at One Point BFG says oil is not going back to $65. Goldman raised its full-year Brent average to $85. Société Générale's Michael Haigh says risk premia won't fully erode for "many weeks, if not months." Even a deal doesn't erase the structural damage overnight.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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