March 19th Pre-Market

Good morning.

Several weeks into this war and the market is still trying to find its footing. Today doesn't make that any easier. Largest options expiry since 1996, the ECB openly talking about rate hikes, and every oil relief measure the admin has tried is still weeks away from doing anything. I think today is a day to watch more than act.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. The Administration Has Used Every Oil Tool It Has. Relief Is Weeks Away. 

Russian oil waivers. Strategic reserve threats. Diplomatic pressure on allies. India exemptions. Jones Act waivers. Every lever pulled. Brent is still above $110. That doesn't mean the tools are useless. It means the timeline doesn't match the urgency. Energy Secretary Wright said Iranian oil would take 30 to 45 days to reach ports. That's May. Qatar lost a fifth of its LNG production for up to five years. Kuwait shut refinery units overnight after drone strikes. The supply response is coming. It just can't keep pace with the damage right now.

2. The ECB Is Weighing an April Rate Hike 

Bloomberg reported yesterday that European Central Bank officials are actively discussing raising rates at their April 29 meeting. Barclays and JPMorgan both expect three hikes this year. Six months ago every central bank was cutting. That shift matters for positioning.

Goldman's note this morning was direct: stocks face headwinds and bonds offer less cushion than usual when rates are moving higher. This doesn't mean there's nowhere to go. It means the playbook that worked in 2025, buy everything and wait for cuts, is no longer the right playbook.

3. The Largest Options Expiry Since 1996 Lands at a Tense Moment

The triple witching is always noisy. Today it lands when every major index is below its 200-day and the Kharg Island blockade report is sitting on every desk. Big moves this afternoon might be forced repositioning, not conviction. Let the dust settle. The real direction will show itself Monday and Tuesday, not in the final hour of a triple witching Friday.

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

FedEx $FDX ( ▲ 1.82% )  

Beats estimate and raised full year guidance. More important than the numbers: the company said global demand held steady through early March despite the war and fuel costs. If that cracks next quarter, this is the stock that tells you first.

Super Micro Computer $SMCI ( ▲ 1.45% )  

Fell after prosecutors charged employees with smuggling at least $2.5 billion in Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 1.02% )  chips to China. Every company in the AI hardware supply chain now has to wonder if their export compliance is airtight. Enforcement just went from paperwork to criminal charges.

Tegna $TGNA ( ▼ 1.28% )  

Up premarket after Nexstar $NXST ( ▼ 2.6% )  closed the $6.2 billion acquisition. Eight state attorneys general filed suit to block it, but the FCC already cleared it. The legal fight adds headline risk, but the arb is done.

Planet Labs $PL ( ▲ 8.67% )  

Broke even for Q4 when the Street expected a 5 cent loss and guided above consensus for Q1 and the full year. Defense and satellite names have a bid right now for obvious reasons. The $23 billion in Gulf arms sales approved this week tells you where government spending is going.

Scholastic $SCHL ( ▲ 2.55% )  

Lost 15 cents adjusted versus the 37 cent loss analysts expected and announced a $200 million buyback funded by real estate sales. Premarket volume is thin. That gap could fill fast if buyers don't show up at the open.

McCormick $MKC ( ▼ 1.83% )  

Dipped early this morning on reports that Unilever wants to spin off its food business and merge it with the spice maker. When a stock sells off on deal speculation, the market is pricing in dilution or bad terms. No position until the structure is public.

What to Watch

Kharg Island Blockade Report 

Axios says the Trump administration is considering occupying or blockading Iran's main oil export terminal. If confirmed, Brent reprices toward $130 and stocks sell hard. If walked back, a relief trade.

Bessent's Oil Play 

Treasury Secretary Bessent floated two moves yesterday: lifting sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian oil at sea, and releasing U.S. strategic reserves. If either is confirmed today, oil pulls back and stocks catch a bid into the weekend. If neither comes, the market realizes the administration is out of near term options.

Thanks for reading.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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