March 19th Market Overview

Happy Thursday

Brent hit $119 this morning and the Dow was down almost 500 points.

By afternoon, oil reversed below $95 after Netanyahu said the war could end sooner than people think and Trump ruled out ground troops. Stocks clawed back to nearly flat. Three weeks into this conflict and I think the market is running out of patience for headlines that don't lead anywhere.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Oil Cools on Reopening Chatter 

Brent crude touched $119 a barrel this morning after Iran struck Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex and Kuwait lost two refineries to drone strikes. Then it reversed hard. Netanyahu told reporters Israel is helping the U.S. reopen the Strait of Hormuz and that the war could end sooner than people think. Trump said he won't send ground troops. Treasury Secretary Bessent floated lifting sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian oil already at sea. That pulled Brent back to around $106 and WTI near $94. The WTI-Brent spread blew out past $17 intraday, widest since 2013. That gap tells you how insulated U.S. supply is versus the rest of the world.

Powell Ignores the 1970s 

The Fed Chair sounded downright upbeat despite the oil shock. He waved off stagflation, pointed to solid growth, and raised the GDP forecast to 2.4 percent. Markets are no longer pricing in a single rate cut this year. Futures pushed the first full cut out to October 2027. That's a massive shift from Tuesday when one cut by December was still the base case. The ECB, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of Japan all held rates today too. The BOE went further and signaled it's prepared to hike if the energy crisis drags on.

Gold Takes a Beating From Record Highs

Gold is having its worst week since 1983, falling below $4,600 after a seven-session losing streak. The selloff looks ugly in isolation but context matters here. Gold hit an all-time high of $5,608 in January and is still up more than 51 percent year-over-year. What's driving the pullback is straightforward: rate cut hopes are dead, the dollar is strengthening, and zero-yield assets look bad when bonds are paying you. Same dynamic played out in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. I think this is a shakeout from extreme levels, not the end of the gold trade.

Market Overview

Index Performance (Brent Crude today)

Stock Spotlight

Micron $MU ( ▼ 2.85% )  
delivered great earnings but the stock sold off anyway. Revenue nearly tripled to $23.9 billion with operating earnings beating the Street by 33 percent. The market hated the $5 billion capex increase. They also signed their first ever five-year supply deal, which tells you memory is becoming a strategic asset.

Alibaba $BABA ( ▼ 6.52% )  
reported a 67 percent drop in quarterly profit. The food delivery war in China is eating margins alive and investors are getting impatient waiting for AI spending to pay off.

Swarmer $SWMR ( ▼ 1.78% )  
is the wildest IPO of the week. This drone software company priced at $5 on Tuesday, raised $15 million, and traded above $61 today before settling around $54. The company lost $8.5 million last year. Pure retail frenzy chasing defense exposure.

Big Name Updates

Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 2.63% )  
is facing a tougher federal safety probe into Full Self-Driving. NHTSA escalated its investigation after crashes involving fog and sun glare. The probe now covers 3.2 million vehicles.

Rivian $RIVN ( ▲ 3.8% )  
inked a deal to supply Uber $UBER with up to 50,000 robotaxis. Uber is investing up to $1.25 billion with initial deployments in San Francisco and Miami starting 2028.

Venture Global $VG ( ▼ 3.91% )  
ripped higher as U.S. LNG exporters became the obvious play on Middle East supply disruption. Cheniere $LNG rallied on the same trade. Norway's Equinor $EQNR also attracted buyers as investors rotated into gas producers far from the war zone.

Other Notable Company News

Five Below $FIVE ( ▲ 11.4% )  
posted a strong holiday quarter with same-store sales beating estimates. Management still warned the rest of the year looks difficult for budget shoppers.

Darden Restaurants $DRI ( ▲ 1.58% )  
is seeing more foot traffic at Olive Garden after launching a lighter menu targeting people on weight-loss drugs and customers watching their wallets.

Eli Lilly $LLY ( ▼ 0.06% )  
released early Phase 3 data on retatrutide, its next-gen obesity drug. Weight loss results look best-in-class but Wolfe sees limited commercial upside since most patients will stay on Mounjaro.

Crypto.com $CRO ( ▼ 1.36% )  
cut 12 percent of its workforce. CEO called it an AI pivot weeks after buying AI.com for $70 million.

Today’s Sponsor

Income. Growth. Breakout Potential.

This year's 10 Best Stocks to Own in 2026 list is built for balance - and upside.

Inside, you'll find dividend powerhouses capable of multi-thousand-dollar payouts... Plus high-growth names with the kind of chart patterns that have delivered triple-digit returns before.

You don't have to choose between income and growth:

Your guide to having both is right here - get access while it's still free.

See The Report Now

Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 2-year yield hit 3.84 percent, highest since late July. The 10-year rose to 4.28 percent. Normally in wartime you'd expect yields to fall and the dollar to weaken. Neither is happening.

Schwab's read: traders believe the U.S. is insulated as a net energy exporter, so the dollar gets bid while yields climb on inflation fears. Foreign currencies are taking the hit instead.

Policy Watch

Fed 
Macquarie Group now sees the next Fed move as a rate hike in the first half of 2027. That's not a typo. A hike. Meanwhile Trump signaled continued support for the DOJ investigation into Powell over Fed headquarters renovation costs.

War and Energy 
Kuwait suspended operations at Mina Abdullah and Mina Al-Ahmadi after drone strikes.

Combined capacity: 800,000 barrels a day. Qatar declared force majeure on LNG shipments from Ras Laffan. European natural gas futures ripped 24 percent higher. Six allied nations issued a joint statement on ensuring safe passage through Hormuz. Polymarket gives a 5 percent chance the war ends by March 31.

Domestic

• Jobless claims fell to 205K (est. 215K). Continuing claims at 1.857M, 10th straight week under 1.9M. Low hires, low fires.
  

• Housing split: new home sales at 587K but building permits fell to 1.376M, lowest since August. Permits are the leading indicator here and they're heading the wrong direction.
  

• Fed proposed new bank capital rules: 4.8 percent less capital required for the largest banks. More lending capacity, less cushion.

What to Watch

FedEx Earnings FedEx 
$FDX reports after the close today. With diesel up a dollar in a month, margin commentary matters more than the top line.

Battle Damage Assessments 
The market is now trading on infrastructure damage reports out of Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Destroyed facilities take months to rebuild. The next 48 hours of reporting will set the tone for oil's next move.

Investor Sentiment
AAII bearish sentiment hit 52 percent this week, highest since May 2025. Contrarians love this but the macro backdrop is materially worse now than it was last time bears were this heavy.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

Goldman Sachs totes "The Return of Physical Assets" → Here’s What You Can Do.

Goldman strategists argued the post-2008 era of total financial asset dominance is faltering. Their proposition? Heavy Assets with Low Obsolescence.

Scarce, globally priced, and immune to AI disruption.

Think about it. Blue-chip art is the original HALO asset.

Just in November 2025, someone bought a 1907 Klimt for $236mm.

And this month? Bloomberg reported that a billionaire scored 3,500% at auction: Bought for £364,500 in 1994. Sold for £13.5 million.

That’s just a fraction of the seller’s billion-dollar collection, representing 12.5% of his fortune.

Returns like that don’t happen everyday, but the Artprice100 outpaced the S&P 500 by 64% (‘20-’24).

Now with Masterworks, you can fractionally invest in multimillion dollar artworks featuring artists like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso.

Over 71,000 people have invested $1.3 billion across over 520 artworks.

26 sales delivered net annualized returns like 14.6%, 17.6%, and 17.8%!!

Our subscribers skip the waitlist

_{Individual referenced not investors in Masterworks offerings. Masterworks did not contribute to the ArtPrice100 index. Investing involves risk. Past performance not indicative of future returns. Important disclosures at masterworks.com/cd}