March 16th Pre-Market

Good morning.

Bessent said this morning he sees oil "much lower" than $80 in a couple months. That's a bold call with Brent sitting above $102 and the Strait still shut.

I think that quote is the most important thing you'll read today because if he's right, the entire setup changes. If he's wrong, we're still in for this choppy slop.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Bessent Just Put a Number on Oil and It's Below $80 

Treasury Secretary Bessent said this morning he expects oil to be "much lower" than $80 a barrel within a couple of months. If he's right, the inflation trade unwinds. Rate cuts come back, bonds rally, growth stocks rip. If he's wrong, we stay stuck in this $100 oil, no-rate-cuts grind that's been running for three weeks. The market doesn't believe him yet. You need to decide if you do.

2. The Fed Walks Into a Trap This Week 

The Fed starts its two-day meeting tomorrow. Core PCE hit 3.1 in February. Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.7. Oil is above $100. Inflation running hot and growth stalling at the same time. Markets have priced out all but (maybe) one cut this year, pushed to December. Powell's press conference Wednesday will tell you whether the Fed is more worried about prices or the economy slowing down.

3. Meta's Layoffs Are the Start of Something Bigger Meta 

$META wants to cut roughly 15,000 jobs, a fifth of its workforce, to help fund up to $135 billion in AI spending this year. Stock is up in premarket. Wall Street sees discipline, not distress. But zoom out. Block cut 4,000 citing AI. Amazon cut 16,000 in January. Over 12,000 U.S. job cuts this year have named AI as the reason. This isn't one company. It's a sector-wide bet that AI replaces headcount, and that changes how you value every tech name.

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Nebius Group $NBIS ( ▲ 4.55% )  
rallied double digits in premarket after signing an AI infrastructure deal with Meta worth up to $27 billion over five years. Last week Nvidia invested $2 billion in the company. Two mega-cap endorsements in seven days is hard to ignore.

Micron Technology $MU ( ▲ 5.13% )  
Moving before the bell after completing its acquisition of a manufacturing site in Taiwan to expand advanced DRAM production. Earnings are later this week and will show whether the memory cycle is actually turning.

National Storage Affiliates $NSA ( ▲ 1.81% )  
agreed to be acquired by Public Storage for roughly $10.5 billion in an all-stock deal. The stock gapped up more than 20 points premarket. Deal expected to close in Q3.

Dollar Tree $DLTR ( ▼ 3.8% )  
dropped after mixed Q4 results. Earnings beat by three cents but revenue missed at $5.45 billion. Discount retail is a window into the low-end consumer and this print isn't encouraging.

Exxon Mobil $XOM ( ▲ 1.69% )  
ticking higher alongside the entire energy complex as Brent holds above $103. Retail investors are pouring record money into oil ETFs. Net retail buying hit $211 million in a single day last week, the highest ever according to Vanda Research.

Strategy $MSTR ( ▲ 1.7% )  
is trading up as bitcoin pushed toward $74,000 overnight alongside other crypto-linked names. Crypto ETPs took in over $1 billion last week for the third consecutive week of inflows.

What to Watch

Nvidia GTC Keynote (2 PM ET) 

Jensen Huang on stage in San Jose. Feynman chip details, Groq inference strategy, and any new customer deals. The options market is already positioning and any leaks or previews will move semis this afternoon.

U.S.-China Trade Talks in Paris (Final Day) 

Treasury Secretary Bessent is leading. But Trump said the planned China state visit could be delayed if Beijing won't help break the Hormuz blockade. That threat limits upside from any trade progress today.

Fed Two-Day Meeting Starts Tomorrow 

No rate change expected Wednesday. But the press conference is everything. The Fed is boxed in. Markets have priced out all but one cut this year, pushed to December. Listen for how Powell frames the trade off between sticky inflation and slowing growth. That framing sets the tone for the rest of March.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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