March 16th Market Overview

Happy Monday

Stocks bounced and oil pulled back from $105. Feels good but today's rally came on light volume, which tells me conviction isn't really there yet.

Hard to get too excited with the strait still shut down and four central banks meeting this week. Jensen Huang stole the afternoon with a $1 trillion order pipeline number at GTC, that one's going to be fun to watch play out.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil Cools on Strait Interventions 
   Bessent told CNBC the US is letting Iranian oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz. He also said oil will "probably" be "much lower" than $80 in a couple months. WTI settled around $93.50 after briefly topping $100 overnight. A few tankers made it through, but transit is still almost completely shut down. I'm not buying the "crisis is over" narrative yet.
   

2. Nvidia Sees $1 Trillion in Orders Through 2027 
   Jensen Huang raised the order outlook for Blackwell and Vera Rubin from $500 billion to $1 trillion through 2027. His GTC keynote focused almost entirely on inference, not training. That tells you where the AI spending cycle is headed. Customers are finally trying to generate real profits from end-users.
   

3. Trump Demands Immediate Rate Cuts 
   Four major central banks meet this week. Trump publicly urged the Fed to hold a special meeting and cut rates "right now," saying a third grade student would know it's time. The Fed will almost certainly hold. Goldman says the inflation shock from Iran is mostly limited to energy and should add about half a percentage point to headline inflation over the next year.

Market Overview

Index Performance (Chart of the Day)

Stock Spotlight

Nebius Group $NBIS ( ▲ 14.87% )  
signed a $27 billion AI infrastructure deal with Meta $META. The Dutch cloud provider will dedicate capacity across multiple locations. This came on top of a partnership with Nvidia announced last week.

Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( ▲ 1.63% )  
got a $300 price target from Wolfe Research. The firm sees improving server momentum and a path to nearly $13 in earnings power. Client and gaming may face headwinds from higher memory pricing.

Upstart Holdings $UPST ( ▲ 5.2% )  
scored an upgrade to Buy at BTIG with a $43 target. The analyst thinks the market completely missed how the bank charter application addresses the biggest risk around its private credit exposure.

POET Technologies $POET ( ▲ 1.32% )  
partnered with LITEON to develop optical modules for data centers. Volume production expected by 2027.

Big Name Updates

Meta $META ( ▲ 2.35% )  
is reportedly considering heavy layoffs to offset AI spending. A company spokesperson called the reporting "speculative." I think the real story today is the $27 billion Nebius deal, not the layoff rumors.

Alibaba $BABA ( ▲ 1.27% )  
is reorganizing its AI business under a new unit called Token Hub. Management wants to monetize models faster under CEO Eddie Wu. Bloomberg says they could unveil a new enterprise AI agent this week.

Dollar Tree $DLTR ( ▲ 6.58% )  
swung to a profit last quarter. Guidance was cautious as consumers remain under pressure.

Commerzbank $CBK ( 0.0% )  
caught a bid after UniCredit $UCG launched an offer to increase its stake in the German lender.

Other Notable Company News

Micron Technology $MU ( ▲ 4.89% )  
completed its acquisition of a production site in Taiwan to expand leading-edge memory chip supply.

Intel $INTC ( ▲ 1.08% )  
teased a major partnership announcement with Nvidia tied to the GTC conference. Shares moved up nicely.

Best Buy $BBY ( ▲ 0.61% )  
took a price target cut from Loop Capital on fears that high gas prices could hurt consumer electronics spending.

Redwire $RDW ( ▼ 0.63% )  
won a contract to build Belgium's first national security satellite for the Belgian government.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year fell to 4.23 as traders position ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. The bond market is caught between two forces right now: oil above $90 pushing inflation expectations higher, and growing recession fears pulling yields lower.

• Dollar index slipped to 96.25. SocGen thinks further losses will be limited.

• Gold settled at $4,994, down for a fourth straight session after its run above $5,000.

Policy Watch

Strait of Hormuz 
The administration wants to announce a coalition to escort ships this week, but France, Germany, the UK, Australia, and Japan have all declined. The US is sending 2,500 Marines and a warship on its own. Iran hasn't requested a ceasefire or sent any messages.

Gas Prices 
National average hit $3.72, up from $2.98 the day before the war started. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said relief could be "a few more weeks" away.

US-China Trade 
Two days of talks in Paris wrapped up. Rare earths, ag exports, tariff stability all discussed. Bessent called it "constructive." Trump might delay his summit with Xi depending on the Middle East.

Gulf Industrial Output 
Gulf factories are running out of room to store what they can't ship. Aluminium Bahrain suspended nearly a fifth of production. QatarEnergy shut down urea plants. ING says smelters typically hold 3-4 weeks of raw materials, and that window is closing fast.

What to Watch

Nvidia GTC Through Thursday 
The keynote is done but sessions run through March 19. Watch for Intel collaboration details and any NemoClaw AI agent announcements. The $1 trillion order number will dominate AI conversation all week.

Fed Decision Wednesday 
Rate decision at 2 PM ET, Powell presser at 2:30 PM. Markets expect a hold. This is his first presser since Trump named Warsh as his replacement.

Hormuz Coalition Announcement 
The administration says it's coming this week. Given how many allies have said no, the details will matter more than the headline.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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