March 13th Pre-Market

Good morning.

I'll be honest, this week wore me out. Oil above $100, stress showing up in corners of Wall Street that usually stay quiet (private credit), and a war with no off-ramp in sight.

I think we're stuck here until something real changes in the Middle East. Not a waiver. Not a headline. A ceasefire. Enjoy the weekend.

Let's dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. The War Is Getting Wider

Israel hit Tehran again this morning. Iran is linked to strikes on Dubai and Turkey. NATO intercepted a missile in Turkish airspace for the third time this month. A U.S. refueling plane went down in Iraq. Four crew killed. The U.S. has struck 6,000 targets since Feb 28. Russia's ambassador says there's no exit strategy. The TACO trade doesn’t work when the other side fights back.

The Russian oil waiver covers five days of lost Hormuz flow. The IEA reserve release is the largest ever. Brent doesn't care. Still above $100. The only thing that reprices oil is a ceasefire or a Navy escort with a real date. Neither exists yet.

2. Rate Cuts and the Fed

Core PCE at 0.4. In line. GDP price index at 3.8, above the 3.6 forecast. Durable goods flat versus 1.1 expected. Sticky prices. Cautious businesses. And $100 oil hasn't even hit the data yet. Two cuts priced before the war. One left now, in December. Gold is down two straight weeks during a shooting war. The dollar just hit 100 on the DXY. The Fed meets Wednesday with nothing good to say.

3. Big Funds Are Locking the Doors on Investors 

Private credit is where Wall Street parks money in loans that don't trade publicly. Think of it like a hotel you can check into but can't check out of when things get rough. That's what's happening right now.

Morgan Stanley told investors they can't pull their money out. BlackRock and Blue Owl did the same. JPMorgan stopped lending to these funds. Blackstoneis getting flooded with withdrawal requests.

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Adobe $ADBE ( ▼ 5.33% )  

Down  -8% premarket. CEO Shantanu Narayen is stepping down after 18 years. The quarter beat on both lines but the market is ignoring it. Investors want to know who leads the AI strategy now.

Ulta Beauty $ULTA ( ▼ 13.06% )  

Missed on earnings and guided soft. Gas prices are up 20 cents in two weeks. This is what discretionary stress looks like before it spreads.

Strategy $MSTR ( ▲ 1.75% )  and Coinbase $COIN ( ▲ 1.04% )  

both up on bitcoin clearing $72,000. The logic is simple. War drags, growth slows, governments eventually have to spend. Crypto is a bet on that sequence playing out.

Meta $META ( ▼ 4.05% )  

Ticking lower. Its next AI model got delayed from March to May. One pushback doesn't kill the thesis. But the spending is happening now and the revenue keeps getting pushed out. That gap is starting to bother people.

SentinelOne $S ( ▲ 3.59% )  

Down this morning after guiding below the street for next quarter. In cybersecurity you beat and raise or you get sold. No middle ground.

CF Industries $CF ( ▼ 4.86% )  firming with Nutrien $NTR ( ▼ 1.55% )  and Mosaic $MOS ( ▼ 6.7% )  

Fertilizer is the most direct Hormuz disruption trade outside of crude. As long as the strait is closed, this group has a floor under it.

What to Watch

Navy Escort for the Strait

Bessent said the Navy will escort tankers through Hormuz "when conditions allow." That's the single biggest binary for oil right now. A real timeline and crude reprices fast. Silence means the military doesn't think it's safe. Watch for anything from the Pentagon or Central Command today.

The Money Is Moving to the Sidelines

$7 billion left equities this week. Largest outflow since December. Money markets pulled in cash for a seventh straight week. High yield saw its biggest exit since April. This isn't panic selling. It's institutional investors quietly raising cash. Nobody is buying this dip.

Fed Meets Wednesday 

No cut coming. That's settled. The only question is whether Powell acknowledges the oil shock or tries to look through it. If he signals patience with Brent at $100, the long end keeps selling off. Four other central banks meet next week too. If they all say higher for longer at the same time, that's a global rates repricing that isn't fully baked in yet.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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