March 12th Pre-Market

Good morning.

Good news first. Jobless claims came in at 213K, below the 217K forecast. Housing starts beat big at 1.49M versus 1.34M expected. The economy is standing.

Now the bad news. The largest emergency oil release in history didn't work. Brent hit $100 overnight. Three more ships were hit in the Gulf. Iraq shut its oil terminals. The market looked at 500 million barrels of reserve commitments and kept buying crude. The straight needs to be re-opened and safe before oil goes down.

Let's dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. The Reserves Aren't Helping Yet 

Over 500 million barrels of emergency oil committed. Brent still hit $100 overnight before settling around $96. Two more tankers hit in Iraqi waters. Iraq shut its ports. Iran floated blocking Red Sea access near Suez. The IEA called its own release a "stopgap measure." The market is pricing Hormuz shut for weeks, not days. Reserves buy time. They don't reopen a strait.

2. Yields, Dollar, Gold. It's All Oil. 

The 30-year yield is near 4.90, highest in a month. The dollar is at its strongest since November. Gold is flat at $5,175 despite a live war. Rate cut expectations keep fading. Every one of these moves traces back to one trade: oil stays elevated, inflation returns, central banks can't cut.

3. Trade Probes Add a Second Layer of Risk 

The White House launched trade investigations targeting China's manufacturing overcapacity across 16 countries. The administration needs new leverage after the Supreme Court struck down its tariff program last month. Trump visits Beijing on March 31. China's own energy supply is threatened by the Strait closure. Investigating your counterparty three weeks before you need their help on a ceasefire is a choice.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Honda $HMC ( ▼ 5.63% )  
The company is taking a $15.7 billion write-down after scrapping parts of its EV strategy and now expects a full-year loss. This isn't an earnings miss. Honda is admitting the bet was wrong.

Dow Inc. $DOW ( ▼ 1.22% )  
and
LyondellBasell $LYB ( ▲ 9.4% ) Both upgraded to Buy at Citi this morning on the same thesis. Middle East chemical exports are offline. U.S. Gulf Coast producers like these two fill the gap with wider margins. Both are already up double digits this month and climbing in premarket.

Bumble $BMBL ( ▲ 35.56% )  
Shares moved up after hours on a Q4 beat across EBITDA and revenue. Q1 guidance cleared the Street. The dating app space has been left for dead. This print forces a second look.

Dollar General $DG ( ▼ 6.48% )  
Reports after the close. This is a read on the lower-income consumer with gas prices climbing. If Dollar General says demand is softening, the stagflation conversation gets louder.

Adobe $ADBE ( ▼ 1.2% )  
Reports after the close. Biggest earnings name of the day. The only question: are AI features actually driving new revenue or just demos? Watch the subscription numbers.

Dick's Sporting Goods $DKS ( ▲ 2.2% )  
Beat across the board last night. Earned $3.45 versus the $2.87 the Street expected. Revenue cleared $6.2 billion. In a market waiting for the consumer to crack, Dick's just said spending is fine.

What to Watch

Jobless Claims Landed Clean 
213K versus 217K forecast. Housing starts beat at 1.49M versus 1.34M. Labor market is holding. No new information for the Fed here.

30-Year Treasury Auction 
This is the market event today. Yields near 4.90 on war-spending deficit fears. A weak auction tells you the bond market is losing confidence. A strong one is a relief valve.

Adobe and Dollar General Earnings (After Close) Adobe 
$ADBE is the cleanest read on enterprise AI spending. Dollar General $DG tells you how the lower-income consumer is handling rising gas prices. Two very different reads on the same afternoon.

Strait of Hormuz 
Still the single most important variable in global markets. Over 600 ships stuck. The Pentagon is turning down escort requests. Any shift in posture today overrides everything else on this list.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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