March 12th Market Overview

Happy Thursday

Oil ripped back up today today and I don't think markets have fully digested what that means yet. Iran's new supreme leader went on TV and said the Strait stays shut. Seven ships hit in 24 hours. The U.S. and IEA announced the biggest emergency oil release in history and prices went up, not down. That tells you everything you need to know about where sentiment is right now.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil Breaks $100 as Hormuz Stays Closed 
   Brent settled at $100.46 after its biggest single-day gain since May 2020. Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed March 9, called the Strait closure a "tool to pressure the enemy." Seven ships were hit in the past 24 hours across the Gulf. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the Navy isn't ready to escort tankers yet but expects to by end of March.
   

2. IEA Declares Largest Oil Supply Disruption in History 
   The IEA cut its 2026 supply growth forecast from 2.4 million barrels a day to 1.1 million. Gulf countries have slashed at least 10 million barrels a day of production. The agency called its record 400-million-barrel emergency reserve release a "stopgap measure" and said resuming Hormuz flows is the only real fix.
   

3. Private Credit Redemptions Keep Spreading 
   Morgan Stanley $MS capped withdrawals on its $7.6 billion North Haven fund at 5 percent after investors requested nearly 11 percent of assets. Cliffwater did the same. Alternative asset managers got hit across the board.

Market Overview

Index Performance (rate cuts today)

Stock Spotlight

CF Industries $CF ( ▼ 4.86% )  
hit an all-time high. The fertilizer maker benefits from cheap U.S. natural gas while European gas prices have run up sharply since the Iran bombardment began.

Bumble $BMBL ( ▼ 0.79% )  
posted a strong Q4 beat and first-quarter guidance above estimates. CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd's turnaround is starting to show up in the numbers.

Petco $WOOF ( ▲ 14.71% )  
guided for a possible return to annual sales growth. Biggest gainer in the S&P on the day.

Firefly Aerospace $FLY ( ▲ 1.46% )  
successfully launched its Alpha Flight 7 mission and the stock took off with it.

Big Name Updates

Goldman Sachs $GS ( ▼ 0.37% )  
raised its Brent forecast for the third time since the war started. The bank sees $98 average in March and April, falling to $71 by Q4. If Hormuz flows stay depressed through March, Goldman thinks daily prices could touch $150.

Exxon Mobil $XOM ( ▲ 1.99% )  
was one of the few green names on the day. Interesting wrinkle: retail investors were actually net sellers of Exxon this week, rotating into the U.S. Oil Fund $USO instead.

Honda $HMC ( ▼ 1.13% )  
expects up to a $15.7 billion hit from scrapping EV models. The company now forecasts swinging to an annual net loss.

Dow Inc. $DOW ( ▼ 2.54% )  
and LyondellBasell $LYB both rallied after Citi upgraded them to buy. Gulf petrochemical disruptions are widening margins for U.S. Gulf Coast chemical producers.

Other Notable Company News

Dollar General $DG ( ▼ 2.81% )  
beat on Q4 earnings but the annual same-store sales outlook came in light. Stock sold off after a massive run over the past year.

Atlassian $TEAM ( ▲ 1.31% )  
is cutting about 1,600 jobs to fund AI and enterprise sales. CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes said it would be "disingenuous to pretend AI doesn't change the mix of skills we need." Stock has lost more than half its value this year.

Six Flags $SIXD ( ▼ 0.28% )  
signed Travis Kelce as brand ambassador for 2026. Kelce already owns a stake alongside Jana Partners.

Papa John's $PZZA ( ▲ 0.61% )  
CEO Todd Penegor wouldn't comment on the Irth Capital take-private bid. Stock gave back most of yesterday's gain.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 30-year yield is pushing toward 5 percent, a level that has rattled stocks every time it's been tested recently.

• War spending is adding to deficit concerns

• Both inflation fears and demand for higher real returns are driving yields up

• The 10-year held above 4.2 percent

Policy Watch

Fed 
Goldman pushed its first rate cut call to September from June. Markets are pricing in no cuts until late 2027 at the earliest. Next week's meeting will be a hold.

Fiscal and Trade

• Trump administration unveiled new tariff probes on industrial overcapacity and forced labor. Could hit dozens of countries.

• The White House plans 30-day Jones Act waivers to let foreign tankers move fuel between U.S. ports, cutting domestic freight costs.

International 
Iraq is trying to reroute exports by truck through Turkey, Syria, and Jordan, about 200,000 barrels a day. Production is down to 1.4 million barrels a day, less than a third of pre-conflict levels. Meanwhile, half the world's available LNG carriers are stuck in the Gulf with charter rates more than doubling.

Energy and SPR 
The U.S. starts releasing 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve next week. Full delivery takes about 120 days, and crude shipped to Asia won't arrive until mid-May due to 45-day transit times. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Navy will escort tankers through Hormuz as soon as it's "militarily possible."

Housing 
The Senate passed an 89-10 housing package including a ban on large investors buying single-family homes. Trump supports it. House Republicans are pushing back, so reconciliation could take months.

What to Watch

Fed Meeting Next Week F
ebruary PCE drops tomorrow. The Fed is holding. The question is whether Powell frames the oil shock as transitory or structural.

Adobe Earnings After Close Today 
Any commentary on AI demand from Adobe $ADBE will move the software group.

Navy Escort Timeline 
Both Wright and Bessent said the Navy will escort tankers through Hormuz by end of March. That's the single biggest catalyst for oil to reverse.

Retail Investor Sentiment 
AAII bearish readings hit the highest since November. Retail net selling hit a one-month high Monday. Historically that's been a buy signal, but oil needs to stabilize first.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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