March 11th Pre-Market

Cargo ships struck. IEA votes on releasing oil reserves

Author

J.L. Bernstein
March 11, 2026

In partnership with

Good morning.

CPI just dropped. Inflation slowed from last month and headline matched expectations. Futures are red but this is February data, before the war hit. The real inflation story is oil.

The IEA votes this afternoon on releasing 400 million barrels, the largest emergency draw in history. Oracle is lifting tech on a raised 2027 outlook.

Let's dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. The IEA Votes on 400 Million Barrels Today. Iran Says It Won't Matter. 

The International Energy Agency is asking 32 countries to approve the largest emergency oil release in history. One objection kills it. Goldman Sachs says it takes about $7 off crude short term. But Iran came out this morning saying strikes will be continuous and not a single liter of "hostile oil" will pass through the Strait.

The U.S. Navy is refusing escort requests from shipping companies due to the risk. Maersk has 10 ships trapped in the Gulf and is running low on fuel in Asia. The release buys days. The Strait being closed is a problem measured in weeks.

2. CPI Landed Clean. The Real Inflation Print Comes in March. 

Core CPI came in at 0.2 month-over-month, a step down from January. Headline matched at 2.4 year-over-year. Futures barely moved because traders already know this is February data, collected before the war started. Oil was in the $60s when this was measured. It's above $85 now. The March print is where the pain shows up. Rate cut expectations have already been pushed to September.

3. AI Spending Is Accelerating Through the Chaos. Oracle 

Oracle beat Q3 and raised its 2027 revenue target to $90 billion. Remaining performance obligations hit $553 billion. Amazon launched a record €10 billion euro bond sale for AI investment, one day after raising $37 billion in U.S. bonds. Nvidia put $2 billion into Nebius to scale AI cloud infrastructure. Three separate companies made massive AI commitments in 24 hours. The buildout isn't slowing down. It's speeding up.

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Beat fiscal Q3 and raised 2027 revenue by $1 billion to $90 billion. This is the best proof point for AI infrastructure spending in weeks and it lifts every cloud and semi name at the open.

AeroVironment $AVAV ( ▼ 5.55% )  

Missed revenue by $68 million in the middle of a shooting war. If a drone maker can't deliver in this environment, the defense-premium trade deserves a second look.

Campbell's $CPB ( ▼ 6.54% )  

Cut guidance on weak snack demand. Consumer discretionary spending is cracking and this is one of the cleaner reads on it.

Got upgraded to overweight at Barclays after months of selling. The question today is whether this call puts a floor under the stock or gets faded by lunch.

JPMorgan $JPM ( ▼ 0.74% )  

Marked down private credit loans to software companies and is tightening lending to the sector. If the biggest bank in the country is getting cautious on credit quality, smaller lenders should worry.

Reports after the close with AI software demand under the microscope.Sprinklr $CXM ( ▲ 6.05% )  beat this morning so the bar just got raised.

Announced a $2 billion strategic investment from Nvidia to scale its AI cloud platform. That's the second massive Nvidia-backed infrastructure bet after CoreWeave, and it validates the neocloud model heading into the open.

What to Watch

IEA Reserve Decision (Starting this morning) 

The big one today. If all 32 member countries agree, 400 million barrels of emergency oil start flowing. Even one objection could delay it. Watch oil's reaction closely. If crude sells off hard on the announcement, that relief might be short lived given the Strait is still shut.

G7 Leaders Call (10:00 AM ET) 

Macron is hosting a video call with G7 leaders to coordinate on the energy crisis. Any language about military escorts for tankers or a timeline for reopening the Strait moves markets immediately.

Fed's Bowman Speaks (Today) 

Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is on the calendar for a bank regulation discussion. With private credit stress in the headlines, anything she says about lending conditions or credit risk gets amplified.


Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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