March 10th Pre-Market

Good morning.

Overnight after Trump said the war ends soon, but signals are still mixed this morning. Defense Secretary Hegseth said today will be the most intense day of strikes yet against Iran. Saudi announced they're reopening refineries after shutting down from drone strikes last week. G7 energy ministers meet this morning to decide on a reserve release.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil Back to $90 But the Strait Is Still Shut Down 

Crude hit $100 Monday then fell to $90 on Trump's promise the war ends soon. Nothing changed on the water. Traffic through the Strait is down 80, about 300 tankers are stuck, and ships are spoofing Chinese ownership just to pass. Iran's new offer this morning: any country that expels U.S. and Israeli ambassadors gets free passage. That's a pressure tactic, not a real path to reopening.

2. G7 Energy Ministers Decide on Reserve Release

This call happens before the bell. The U.S. wants a joint release of 300 to 400 million barrels from the group's 1.2 billion barrel stockpile. France says all options are live. Monday's finance minister meeting was "positive" but produced no action. Energy ministers have the authority to change that today.

3. China Exports Crushed Estimates 

January-February exports grew over 20 versus the 7 forecast, driven by electronics demand. Puts China on track to beat last year's record $1.2 trillion trade surplus. This data predates the oil shock but tells you global demand was running hot going into the crisis.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Oracle $ORCL ( ▼ 0.48% )  
reports after the bell. Stock is up 2 premarket. AI spending is the only story here, especially after reports it pulled back from an OpenAI data center deal and is cutting jobs.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals $VRTX ( ▲ 8.11% )  
up over 4 premarket. Its kidney disease drug hit its primary endpoint in a late-stage trial. Limited competition in this space.

Strategy $MSTR ( ▼ 0.24% )  
up 3 premarket as bitcoin pushes toward $70,000. This is a war de-escalation trade, pure and simple.

Kohl's $KSS ( ▼ 1.35% )  
down premarket on a revenue miss. Posted $4.97 billion versus the $5.03 billion estimate. Earnings beat doesn't matter when the top line is shrinking.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise $HPE ( ▼ 2.48% )  
beat earnings and raised guidance. AI and data center demand driving the business. Up modestly premarket.

Joby Aviation $JOBY ( ▼ 1.79% )  
leading flying-taxi stocks higher after the Trump administration picked it for a next-gen aircraft program. Says it could launch U.S. operations this year.

What to Watch

G7 Energy Ministers Meeting (Going on right now) 
Up to 400 million barrels of strategic reserves on the table. France says all options are live. If they act, oil drops. If they punt, oil holds $90.

February Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 
Economists expect a 1.3 decline after January's steep drop. Secondary to oil today but still worth watching.

CPI Report (Wednesday, 8:30 AM ET) 
February's number won't reflect the oil shock but it sets the baseline. A hot print makes the Fed's job harder with energy costs now stacking on top.

Iran Headlines (All Day)
Hegseth says today is the most intense strike day yet. Iran's parliament says no ceasefire. Trump says it ends soon. Oil moves on every headline and everything else follows oil.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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