March 10th Market Overview

Happy Tuesday

Wild one today, Im actually late because I was trading oil.

Oil went from near $120 to below $80 and back to $85 all in 24 hours. Crazy part was Energy Secretary Chris Wright tweeting that the Navy escorted a tanker through the Strait, oil tanked on it, then the post got deleted and the White House said it never happened. I don't think I've ever seen a cabinet member's social media move a commodity like that.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil Whipsaws $40 on a Deleted Tweet 
   
   Crude dropped from near $120 to below $80 before settling around $85. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted that the Navy escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, then deleted it. The White House confirmed it never happened. Wells Fargo says sustained oil at $130 triggers a consumer spending contraction, and we touched $120 Monday.
   

2. G7 Moves Toward Strategic Reserve Release 
   
   G7 energy ministers asked the IEA to calculate how much oil could come from stockpiles. The IEA called an extraordinary meeting for Tuesday afternoon. I think the signal matters more than actual barrels right now.

3. Pentagon and White House Telling Different Stories
   
   Hegseth said this monring would be "our most intense day of strikes inside Iran." Hours earlier, Trump told CBS the war is "very complete, pretty much." Iran's foreign minister said ceasefire talks are off the table.

Market Overview

Index Performance (Brent Crude today)

Stock Spotlight

Nio $NIO ( ▼ 3.42% )  
posted its first quarterly profit. Q4 net income was $40.4 million on $4.8 billion in revenue, beating the $4.6 billion expected.

Hims & Hers Health $HIMS ( ▲ 11.4% )  
upgraded to neutral at BofA after Novo Nordisk $NVO dropped its patent lawsuit. Hims will sell Wegovy and Ozempic on its platform with a new $23 price target.

Micron Technology $MU ( ▲ 3.86% )  
partnered with Applied Materials $AMAT on next-gen AI memory across DRAM, HBM, and NAND. Phison's CEO said NAND prices are moving higher fast with some quotes up as much as half overnight.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals $VRTX ( ▼ 1.97% )  
hit its main goal in a late-stage kidney disease trial for IgA nephropathy.

Big Name Updates

Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 0.6% ) targeting $25 to $30 billion in dollar bonds plus 10 billion euros. I'm watching where this gets deployed.

CrowdStrike $CRWD ( ▲ 1.33% ) upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley with a $510 target. MS sees it best positioned for endpoint security share gains with AI tailwinds from next-gen SIEM.

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.25% ) assembled about 55 million iPhones in India last year, up from 36 million. New iPhone 17e and MacBook Neo hit shelves tomorrow at $599 each.

Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM ( ▲ 2.01% )  
reported strong first-two-months revenue. February was about $10 billion, down from January's $12.6 billion on normal seasonal patterns.

Other Notable Company News

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 0.47% )  
preparing to launch NemoClaw, an open-source AI agent platform for enterprise developers, per Wired.

AT&T $T ( ▼ 2.49% )  
committed more than $250 billion through 2030 for domestic fiber and wireless expansion.

Boeing $BA ( ▼ 1.68% )  
delaying some 737 MAX deliveries after finding a wiring problem.

Strategy $MSTR ( ▼ 0.99% )  
initiated at buy by B. Riley with a $175 target, holding roughly 721,000 Bitcoin.

Exxon Mobil $XOM ( ▲ 2.39% )  
plans to move its legal home to Texas.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

10-year yield around 4.15. Yields and the dollar both lower on the day. 10-year auction tomorrow, 30-year Thursday.

Policy Watch

International

• Iran's foreign minister took ceasefire talks off the table

• CBS News reported the U.S. sees indications Iran is deploying mines in the Strait

• Gulf states said the strikes created a "huge trust gap" that will last years

Goldman says Strait traffic is at roughly a fifth of pre-war levels. Tankers carried about 1.6 million barrels a day over the past four days versus the normal 20 million. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned of "catastrophic consequences for oil markets" if disruption continues.

Economy

• Gas prices hit $3.54 per gallon nationally, highest since mid-2024

• February existing home sales rose to a 4.09 million annual rate, beating expectations

• Median home price hit $398,000

• Mortgage rates dipped below 6 in late February for the first time since 2022 but climbed back since the conflict started

Legislation
Senator Adam Schiff introducing a bill to ban prediction market contracts tied to war, assassination, or death after scrutiny of bets on Kalshi and Polymarket.

A federal judge ordered Live Nation $LYV and state AGs to resolve an antitrust suit this week. The DOJ deal would let Live Nation keep Ticketmaster.

What to Watch

CPI Data Tomorrow at 8:30 AM
February consumer price index. Gas prices at 18-month highs add weight to the headline number. Any upside surprise in core will rattle this market. This reading shapes Fed rate expectations.

Oracle Earnings Tonight 
Watch for cloud infrastructure demand and capex guidance. Hyperscaler spending trends set the tone for AI infrastructure names.

IEA Emergency Meeting 
Happening today. Will determine if 30+ nations commit to releasing strategic reserves. Market reaction tells us if traders see it as a fix or confirmation the crisis is worse than expected.

PCE Data and Consumer Sentiment Friday 
Fed's preferred inflation gauge for January at 8:30 AM alongside the Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Two inflation readings in one week give the Fed a clearer picture heading into their next meeting.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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