June 9th Pre-Market

Good Morning

Nice green start with chips leading the bounce a second day and oil back under 90. The AI trade is running the market again and OpenAI filed for an IPO last night. I'll take the green today, CPI read tomorrow could be a stress test.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Iran Deal Or Just More Talk 
   The ceasefire nearly cracked this weekend, with Iran and Israel trading strikes for the first time since April before both pulled back. Trump now says a real deal is two or three days out and would reopen the Strait of Hormuz right away. Oil is sliding under 90 like the market believes him. The catch: Netanyahu said Monday the war is "not over,"
   

2. The IPO Wave Is Here 
   OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO late Monday, a week after Anthropic did the same, and could come public as soon as the fourth quarter. SpaceX prices Thursday and starts trading Friday at roughly a 1.8 trillion dollar valuation, set to be the largest IPO on record. Some read this flood of AI and space paper as fuel for the bull run.
   

3. Chips Lead The Bounce, Day Two 
   Micron and Qualcomm are bid again in premarket, building on Monday's comeback after Friday handed the chip ETF its worst day in six years. Semis are pulling the whole tape higher and futures are green across the board.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 1.89% )  
is in focus after Tim Cook's final keynote unveiled a new Siri AI. The Street was lukewarm but Morgan Stanley still bumped its target to 360 dollars from 330.

Nuvalent $NUVL ( ▼ 2.71% )  
is flying after GSK agreed to buy it for 10.6 billion dollars, about 124 a share. The deal is built on two lung cancer drugs under FDA review.

Marvell $MRVL ( ▲ 9.63% )  
is bidding higher in premarket after S&P Dow Jones said it will add the stock to the S&P 500 later this month. Index funds are now forced to buy it, which is its own tailwind.

SailPoint $SAIL ( ▼ 3.02% )  
got hit hard after weak full-year guidance overshadowed a first-quarter beat. Right now a soft outlook beats a good quarter every time.

Vail Resorts $MTN ( ▲ 1.36% )  
slid after cutting its full-year forecast and blaming poor snow out West. The market rarely gives a pass when a company cuts on weather.

J.M. Smucker $SJM ( ▼ 1.71% )  
beat earnings at 2.77 a share but guided for sales to fall this year. Classic packaged-food bind: pulling back on price hikes to chase volume.

What to Watch

IPO’s

MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide.

Existing Home Sales (This Morning) 
NAR's May read lands today alongside wholesale inventories. Housing has been quietly soft, and another weak number feeds the slowdown story most people aren't watching.

Oracle Earnings (Tomorrow, After The Bell) 
BofA raised its target to 240 ahead of the print, betting on strong cloud and database demand. A big number reinforces the AI infrastructure trade. A miss dents it.

US-Iran Deal Watch 
Trump says a deal could land in two or three days and open the Strait of Hormuz immediately. Oil under 90 is already betting he's right. If talks stall, that move reverses fast.

- John

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