June 4th Pre-Market

Good Morning

Split screen this morning. Dow's green, Nasdaq's red, and Broadcom is the reason. They beat, didn't raise one number, and lost $300 billion for it.

Feels less like the AI trade breaking and more like a hot stock catching its breath after a 55% quarter. The fact that the Dow's holding up tells me money's rotating a bit, not running from Ai.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Broadcom Beat And Still Lost $300 Billion 

Broadcom beat on revenue and its AI sales grew 143% from a year ago. It got cut by $300 billion anyway, because it didn't raise its long-range AI number and the market wanted more. Here's what the selloff is ignoring: management says orders now give them visibility all the way out to 2028. The stock was up 55% this quarter, so this looks more like a stretched name snapping back than the AI story breaking.

2. The Private Credit Run Just Hit Blackstone

Yesterday it was Partners Group. Today Blackstone capped withdrawals on its $79 billion credit fund at 5%, after investors asked to pull 10%. That's a reversal, they'd planned to pay everyone, and now they won't. When the biggest name in the business slams the window, the question stops being if this spreads and becomes who's next.

3. Israel And Lebanon Renew The Ceasefire 

The two sides agreed to extend their truce, and oil is giving back three days of gains. This matters because Lebanon was the last real roadblock to a wider US-Iran deal, and Trump is hinting that deal is close. Crude easing is the market's vote that the war premium is starting to drain out. Watch oil to confirm whether the progress holds.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

CrowdStrike $CRWD ( ▼ 2.78% )  

Beat on both lines and still sold off, with rising costs and soft guidance doing the damage. It also set a four for one split.

Micron $MU ( ▲ 1.45% )  

Down on no news of its own, pure sympathy from the Broadcom hit. Anyone who owns it for the memory cycle has to choose, buy the panic or respect the read through that the whole group repriced today.

UnitedHealth $UNH ( ▼ 0.24% )  

Was upgraded to buy at Bank of America and it's the single biggest reason the Dow is green while the Nasdaq bleeds. Anyone who wrote off healthcare as dead money is watching the rotation out of crowded tech land right here.

Strategy $MSTR ( ▼ 7.01% )  

Sliding with crypto as Bitcoin drifts toward $62,750, after the company sold tokens for the first time since 2022.

Five Below $FIVE ( ▲ 1.14% )  

Fell premarket even after guiding above the Street. Same lesson as the chip names: anyone still betting that a good number means a green stock has to recalibrate for this tape.

PVH $PVH ( ▲ 0.85% )  

The Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger parent, dropped hard after simply reiterating its full year outlook. Reiterating used to be fine. In this tape, anyone long a consumer name has to know that not raising now reads as a miss.

What to Watch

IPO’s

MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide.

Lululemon After The Bell 
A read on whether the higher-end shopper is still spending. Watch the guidance, not the print. Soft guidance makes the consumer story louder.

Private Credit (Sleeper)
Blackstone and Partners Group both capped withdrawals this week. Watch if KKR and Ares start to leak too. This could matter more than chips by month-end.

SpaceX starts its roadshow today ahead of the June 12 listing. The way to play it is the proxies, Coinbase $COIN and EchoStar $SATS.

- John

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