June 30th Market Overview

Happy Tuesday

That's a wrap on the first six months of the year, and it was a strong one. The interesting part is under the hood…. this whole run was a chip story, while the big tech names everyone owns mostly sat it out. This morning we got May's job openings, basically how many roles are posted, and they held up fine. Hiring is slowing and more people say work is hard to find. Thursday brings the June jobs report, the actual count of who got hired, so that's the one that settles which signal wins.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Chips Carried The Quarter, Megacaps Got Left Behind 
Semiconductors are closing their best quarter on record while the big AI spenders fell out of favor. Microsoft is staring at its worst month since the dot-com bust, and Meta ends the quarter underwater. The Russell 2000 just booked its best first half since 1991, so the rally is real and it's broadening. Investors want the companies selling the shovels, not the ones writing the biggest checks.

2. The Job Market Is Losing A Little Steam
Job openings beat forecasts in May, so the headline looked fine. Underneath, hiring stayed slow and the share of people saying jobs are hard to find hit its highest since early 2021. Consumer confidence came in lighter than hoped, with job worries creeping in. Nothing alarming yet, but it's worth half an eye into Thursday's payrolls.

3. Oil Cooled Off Hard 
Crude is closing its worst quarter since early 2020. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz are back to normal, and the war premium has drained out of the price. The market went from bracing for a supply shock to worrying about a glut in a matter of weeks. For anyone filling a tank this summer, that's a rare bit of good news.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Air Products $APD ( ▲ 8.02% )  
scrapped its big green hydrogen project in Louisiana after years of cost overruns and pushback, taking a writeoff of up to $2.9 billion. Wall Street liked the discipline and bought the stock.

Strategy $MSTR ( ▼ 6.2% )  
walked back its famous pledge to never sell bitcoin, planning buybacks and token sales to ride out the crypto downturn. When the loudest bull starts hedging, it's worth noticing.

AeroVironment $AVAV ( ▲ 19.07% )  
beat on both earnings and revenue, and the drone maker's stock took off. Defense demand keeps showing up in the actual numbers.

Big Name Updates

Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 2.68% )  
looks set to beat its own delivery estimates this quarter by around 10,000 units, per Deutsche Bank, with Europe doing the heavy lifting. The official count lands around July 2.

Goldman Sachs $GS ( ▼ 1.02% )  
and Morgan Stanley $MS both got cut to underperform at Oppenheimer, which would rather own alternative managers like Blackstone and KKR. The call is a late-cycle trade, not a knock on either firm today.

Nike $NKE ( ▼ 0.7% )  
reports after the close tonight into a tough setup, with a soft consumer and stiffer competition at home. We'll see if the turnaround has any numbers behind it yet.

Other Notable Company News

Alumni Ventures
Opens up service to Review Curated Venture Deals.
Sign up to see vetted venture deals at no cost*

AbbVie $ABBV ( ▼ 1.38% )  
and Merck $MRK slipped after a House committee opened a probe into their clinical trials in China.

Digital Realty $DLR ( ▼ 5.43% )  
is buying stakes in three Blackstone data centers in a deal valued at $7.8 billion, and the stock dipped on the dilution.

Concentrix $CNXC ( ▼ 11.2% )  
sank after cutting full-year guidance and missing on earnings and revenue.

Logitech $LOGI ( ▼ 4.74% )  
took a downgrade from Bank of America, which sees pricier PCs and tablets pulling down demand for accessories.

Enphase $ENPH ( ▲ 3.56% )  
caught a bid on reports the White House may ban foreign solar inverters, which would favor US makers.

Today’s Sponsor

Invest in High-Potential Startups Like These

Alumni Ventures is offering readers early access to high-potential startup opportunities, including some of today’s most exciting AI, Deep Tech, Quantum Computing, Cybersecurity, and Space companies co-invested alongside top VC firms like Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), Bessemer, & Y Combinator.

You get:

• Curated deal flow of high-potential startups

• Invest alongside elite lead venture firms

• No cost to see deals

• No obligation to invest

See Current Startup Deals →

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Short-term yields climbed after the Fed meeting as traders swapped their rate-cut bets for hike bets. That move is the clearest sign of how much the mood shifted this quarter.

• Apollo's Torsten Slok warned that heavy borrowing by AI data center builders is crowding out Treasurys and corporate credit. His question: where does the money come from to buy $700 billion of new hyperscaler bonds?

• Japan's long bonds are selling off too, with the 30-year yield near a record high.

• The dollar sat near a 13-month high, capping gold's worst quarter in 13 years.

Policy Watch

The Supreme Court left the Fed's independence intact, blocking the White House's attempt to remove governor Lisa Cook. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks Wednesday in Portugal, and that's the next place to listen for how serious the hike talk really is.

Around Washington and abroad:

• The US and Iran are set to meet in Qatar today, though Tehran disputes the timing. Secretary of State Rubio and envoy Steve Witkoff are briefing Congress on an early peace framework.

• The EU is cutting its duty-free steel quota starting July 1, with tariffs on anything above the new limit.

• The Agriculture Department is readying up to $500 million in aid for smaller meatpackers as a livestock shortage keeps beef prices high.

What to Watch

The AI company quietly automating every Walmart distribution center. 
23 billion in orders on the book.

It's just one of seven names in this free MarketBeat report.

Constellation Brands Earnings 
The beer and spirits maker reports after the bell tonight. It's a clean read on whether the consumer is still spending heading into summer.

Yen Intervention 
Traders are eyeing Friday, a thin US holiday session, as the most likely moment for Tokyo to step in and defend the currency. Japan has already spent more than $70 billion this year trying to slow the slide. Markets here are closed Friday for the Fourth.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

The Lithium Boom is Heating Up

Lithium stock prices grew 2X+ from June to January. But the real winner may be a private stock: EnergyX. Their tech can recover 3X more lithium than traditional methods, leading General Motors to invest. Now they’re preparing to unlock ~13M tons of lithium. Invest in EnergyX for $13/share by the 7/16 deadline.

Invest in EnergyX

^{Energy Exploration Technologies, Inc. (“EnergyX”) has engaged Beehiiv to publish this communication in connection with EnergyX’s ongoing Regulation A offering. Beehiiv has been paid in cash and may receive additional compensation. Beehiiv and/or its affiliates do not currently hold securities of EnergyX.}

^{This compensation and any current or future ownership interest could create a conflict of interest. Please consider this disclosure alongside EnergyX’s offering materials. EnergyX’s Regulation A offering has been qualified by the SEC. Offers and sales may be made only by means of the qualified offering circular. Before investing, carefully review the offering circular, including the risk factors. The offering circular is available at invest.energyx.com/.}

^{Comparisons to other companies are for informational purposes only and should not imply similar results. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market shortfall are forward‑looking estimates and are subject to substantial uncertainty.}