June 29th Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning

The US and Iran shook hands again over the weekend, oil drifted back near 70, and the mood is relief heading into a short week with the close Friday for the holiday.

Quick note: I’m headed to NC for a much needed fam vacation, timing might be a little off on the afternoon reports this week but they will come (as always :)

Let’s dig in…

Today's Big Picture

The Ships Don't Believe The Truce
Stocks are buying the weekend ceasefire and oil shrugged off the fresh strikes, but the people who actually move crude aren't convinced. Only 22 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, the quietest day since the deal was signed. This is the third halt in the fighting, and Deutsche Bank told clients today to expect more volatility after Iran, not less, since Washington has shown it will use force.

Cheaper Oil Just Became Bad News
Crude slipped under 70 last week for the first time since the war began, the inflation relief everyone wanted. Here's the flip: in an economy running this hot, cheap gas means more spending, more demand, and more reason for the Fed to hike instead of cut. Gold is heading for a fourth straight losing month and the dollar is having its best stretch in a year, both betting the same way. T

The AI Bounce Is Mechanical, Not Conviction
Chips and big tech are rebounding after dragging the market down all week, but the move up looks manufactured. Funds that use borrowed money to amplify these stocks have to buy as they rise and dump as they fall, and last week in Korea that forced trading was half the daily volume in the big chipmakers. Margin debt just hit a record 1.4 trillion dollars, and Schwab is already tightening how much its clients can borrow.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Comcast $CMCSA ( ▲ 2.12% )  

Splitting in two, spinning off NBCUniversal and Sky and keeping cable and wireless. Holders have to pick a side now, because the bundle that justified owning the whole thing is going away. Comcast ripping up in pre.

Charter $CHTR ( ▲ 3.08% )  

Moving on a report it held exclusive talks with SpaceX about a consumer phone, routing some satellite traffic over Charter's ground network. The wireless carriers are the ones forced to react, with a new competitor coming at them from space.

Rocket Lab $RKLB ( ▲ 4.77% )  

Buying satellite operator Iridium, bolting a working communications network onto its launch business. Iridium holders take the premium and walk. Rocket Lab investors have to decide if owning a network sharpens the company or stretches it.

$PLTR ( ▲ 5.28% )  
Shares of the data-analytics company climbed premarket, further recovering from a multi-day losing streak driven by fears about the sustainability of the artificial-intelligence rally

Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 3.14% )  

Lagging its Magnificent Seven peers after raising iPad and MacBook prices to cover rising memory chip costs. Buyers are on the spot now, paying up or waiting, and if they wait, the volumes behind those record chip margins start to crack.

What to Watch

IPO’s

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June Jobs Report (Thursday, 8:30 AM ET)
The whole hike bet runs through this number. Forecasts sit near 125,000 after May's 172,000, and it lands Thursday because Friday is closed. Watch gold and the dollar before the S&P. They move hardest if it disappoints.

Warsh At The ECB Forum (Wednesday, 9 AM ET)
He's scrapped forward guidance, so the trade is in what he doesn't say. Any hint that cheaper oil has cooled the inflation math moves rates more than the data does.

- John

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