June 24th Pre-Market Brief

Nasdaq futures point to positive open, oil prices continue to fall

Author

J.L. Bernstein
June 24, 2026

Good Morning

Chips are catching their breath after two days that felt worse than they were. Bessent went on CNBC talking up the economy, says we get back to three percent growth by year end and inflation cools from here.

Everyone's holding their breath for Micron tonight like it's the verdict on AI but reality is this stock has fallen after (I think) six of its last eight reports, even the amazing ones. I watch the action, not the number as always.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

The Bounce Is Real, The Conviction Isn't
Memory and chip names are green this morning after two days erased more than a trillion off the Nasdaq 100. Morgan Stanley's desk says it's mostly hedge funds covering shorts, not new buyers. Wedbush checked AI demand across Asia and says there are no cracks in it. Can Big Tech keep paying for this buildout without wrecking the cash flow investors count on. Until that's answered, I treat every bounce as a rental, not a home.

Oil Quietly Rolled Back The Whole War
Brent's under 75 and WTI near 71, right back to where they sat before the first missile flew. Ships are moving through Hormuz again now that the IMO got safety guarantees in writing. Cheaper crude is the cleanest path to softer inflation later this year, and that's what the Fed is watching. Trump yelling at refiners about gas prices is just noise, since the pump always lags crude by weeks no matter who he calls.

The Market has Stopped Arguing About Rate Cuts
Traders now fully price two rate hikes by year-end, double what they expected before Warsh leaned on inflation at his first meeting. That's the real weight on tech, not some AI bubble popping, because the priciest stocks feel higher rates first. The dollar's climbing while gold and Bitcoin leak. The bet against the dollar is quietly falling apart. Same news, different villain than the one everyone's naming.

P.S. The Market does’’t reward yesterday's winners forever.

As the Magnificent 7 mature, the next generation of leaders begins to emerge - often quietly, before the crowd catches on.

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Cerebras $CBRS ( ▲ 1.02% )  

Getting hit after its first report since going public showed margins sliding and management guiding to a full year loss. Now every other AI chip hopeful coming to market has to explain why their economics look different.

Lower after margins in its core delivery business shrank, even with revenue beating. As a freight bellwether, that puts every industrial and retailer leaning on cheap shipping on notice that costs are creeping back.

Joins the Dow on Monday, taking Verizon's $VZ ( ▲ 3.02% )  spot. Index funds that track the Dow have to buy it whether they want to or not, which puts a quiet bid under the stock into next week.

Take-Two $TTWO ( ▲ 1.28% )  

Opens Grand Theft Auto 6 presales Thursday, and BTIG started coverage with a buy call on years of higher earnings power. Now management has to deliver a launch big enough to justify a stock already pricing the win.

Wendy's $WEN ( ▲ 1.38% )  

Lighting up WallStreetBets with short interest near a quarter of its float. If it runs, the shorts are the ones forced to act, and their covering is what turns a pop into a squeeze.

Arm Holdings $ARM ( ▼ 10.14% )  

Picked up price target hikes from UBS and TD Cowen, both citing stronger demand for its chip designs as agentic AI takes off. That leaves the bears defending why one of the few chip names with good news this week should still be sold.

What to Watch

IPO’s

MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide on IPO’s happening this year.

Micron Earnings (After The Close)
If they sound cautious, yesterday's selloff gets its second leg and the AI demand story takes the blame.

SK Hynix Listing (Targeting July 10)
The Korean memory giant wants 29 billion on the Nasdaq, right after SpaceX's record raise.

Data Center Energy Bill (Today)
A House subpanel votes on a measure to make tech pay for the grid upgrades their AI data centers demand. Nobody's pricing it, but if it gains traction the cost of the buildout climbs for Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft.


- John

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Note: This newsletter is intended for informational purposes only. This edition is in partnership with MarketBeat.