June 22nd Market Overview

Happy Monday

The S&P and Nasdaq closed red, but it was really just two names having a rough day. Alphabet lost a top researcher to Anthropic right before a big stock sale, and SpaceX tapped the bond market for the first time.

Look past those two and it was a good day: the Dow rose, small caps ran, and oil cooled as the US and Iran moved toward a deal.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil Cools as the US and Iran Find a Path

Qatar and Pakistan brokered a 60-day roadmap toward a final US-Iran deal, and Treasury issued a license letting Iran sell oil again, including to us. Crude fell as supply fears eased. The honest catch is timing. The Strait of Hormuz still needs clearing, and that runs in weeks, not days.

2. The Giants Drag

Alphabet is having its worst day in over a year after Nobel-winning DeepMind scientist John Jumper left for Anthropic, and the timing stings with a huge stock sale on deck. SpaceX fell a third straight day as it tapped the bond market for the first time to clear a bridge loan. Those two names alone pulled the S&P and Nasdaq red.

3. Memory Is the Hottest Trade on the Board (still)

Micron climbed today as analysts stacked up price-target hikes ahead of Wednesday's earnings. Over in Korea, SK Hynix passed Samsung to become the country's most valuable company on AI memory demand. Apple is even blaming memory costs for new price hikes.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Super Micro $SMCI ( ▲ 15.38% )  
was the day's standout after shipping its data center blueprint built on Nvidia's new Vera Rubin platform. The pitch is faster AI buildouts for research labs.

Getty Images $GETY ( ▲ 92.53% )  
more than doubled on a display deal that feeds its image library into ChatGPT. Every other library owner now has to decide whether to license on these terms or hold out.

AbbVie $ABBV ( ▲ 6.1% )  
is buying Apogee Therapeutics $APGE for about $10.9 billion in cash to deepen its immunology pipeline. Apogee holders are having a very good day.

Big Name Updates

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.34% )  
took a downgrade to hold from KGI Securities. I think the market is finally waking up to how tight memory supply could squeeze device margins.

Intel $INTC ( ▲ 5.11% )  
is spinning out advanced packaging into its own business unit with dedicated leadership.

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▼ 2.06% )  
is selling convertible notes due 2029, using part of the cash to buy back shares and offset dilution.

Other Notable Company News

Chevron $CVX ( ▲ 0.82% )  
signed a 20-year deal to supply natural gas power to a Microsoft $MSFT data center in West Texas.

Estee Lauder $EL ( ▼ 0.14% )  
picked up a buy rating from Goldman Sachs on its new strategy and leadership team.

Eli Lilly $LLY ( ▲ 0.32% )  
saw oral obesity prescriptions tick up last week while injectable volumes slipped.

AeroVironment $AVAV ( ▼ 11.18% )  
fell hard after saying it has to restate earnings over how it valued its Space unit. Restatements always raise the question of what else was off.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields climbed as traders came back from the long weekend and repriced for a more hawkish Fed. The 2-year hit 4.04%, its highest since early 2025, and the 10-year pushed to 4.50%.

Policy Watch

The Fed

Bank of America made the boldest call on the Street and now sees three hikes this year.

• Rates to 4.50% by December

• No cuts penciled in until 2028

Prediction markets are leaning the same way, with Polymarket pricing better-than-even odds of at least one hike next year. A week ago, a hold was the base case.

Greenspan

Alan Greenspan died at 100. He ran the Fed for almost two decades through the 90s boom and the dot-com bust. New chair Kevin Warsh, fresh off his first hawkish meeting, has called Greenspan his model.

Across the Pond

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned, with Andy Burnham the expected successor.

• The pound slipped near a 2026 low

• Gilt markets stayed calm, since the move was largely priced after Burnham's by-election win Friday

What to Watch

The AI company quietly automating every Walmart distribution center. 
23 billion in orders on the book.

It's just one of seven names in this free MarketBeat report.

PCE Inflation Data (Thursday)

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Core is expected to tick up from April. After a hawkish Fed and rising yields, this is the print that decides whether hikes are really back on the table.

Micron Earnings (Wednesday)

The clearest read this week on AI memory demand. The price targets assume the boom has legs. Watch the guidance more than the headline number.

Strait of Hormuz Traffic

Oil flows are still below pre-war levels even with the peace progress. Watch vessel counts over the next few days. A clean reopening keeps crude calm. A snag puts the war premium right back in.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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