June 1st Market Overview

Happy Monday

New month, new records, and Nvidia did the heavy lifting again with a fresh chip built for AI laptops. Oil tried to spook everyone on the Iran headlines this morning, then Trump waved it off and crude cooled down.

The market keeps shrugging off scary headlines like it's got better places to be, and honestly I'm not stepping in front of it, just keeping one eye on the oil and any hints of rate hikes.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Nvidia's New Chip Lifts Tech to Records

Nvidia unveiled the RTX Spark, a chip built for AI laptops, at the Computex show in Taiwan. Dell, HP, and Microsoft rose as its build partners. Intel, Qualcomm, and AMD fell because the move lands in their backyard. I think Nvidia just planted a flag in the one big computing market it didn't already own.

2. Oil Climbs on Iran, Then Cools Off 

Iran's state media said it was done negotiating with the US and would close the Strait of Hormuz over Israel's fighting in Lebanon. Crude ran higher on the threat. Then Trump brushed it off on CNBC, posted a productive call with Netanyahu, and oil gave back most of the gain. Higher oil revived inflation worries, and traders have flipped from betting on Fed cuts to pricing in a possible hike.

3. Dealmaking Picks Up 

Berkshire Hathaway agreed to buy homebuilder Taylor Morrison for $6.8 billion in cash, one of Greg Abel's first big swings since taking over for Buffett. Separately, Barry Diller's People Inc. offered to buy the rest of MGM Resorts in a deal valuing it near $18 billion. I'm watching whether this kicks off more consolidation.

Market Overview

Index Performance (Software stocks for today)

Stock Spotlight

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 6.36% )  
called the RTX Spark the most efficient PC chip ever built and rolled out new robotics gear at the same Taiwan show. CEO Jensen Huang said its next data-center platform, Vera Rubin, is in full production.

Dell $DELL ( ▲ 10.81% )  
rose as one of the manufacturers building laptops around the new Nvidia chip.

Intel $INTC ( ▼ 5.28% )  
fell as the new chip lands right in its core PC market. Qualcomm and AMD slid for the same reason.

Big Name Updates

ServiceNow $NOW ( ▲ 8.9% )  
rose with other software names after Huang said AI agents will use more software, not replace it.

SoftBank $SFTBY ( ▲ 22.28% )  
passed Toyota to become Japan's most valuable company, riding its Arm stake and a plan to spend at least $50 billion on data centers in France.

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 1.85% )  
got a fresh Overweight from Morgan Stanley ahead of this week's developer conference, with the analyst framing new Siri features as a possible AI win.

McDonald's $MCD ( ▼ 1.02% )  
is testing hand-breaded chicken in some Chicago stores as it chases Chick-fil-A and Raising Cane's.

Other Notable Company News

Strategy $MSTR ( ▼ 4.72% )  
sold bitcoin for the first time since 2022, about $2.5 million worth, to fund preferred dividends.

Bloom Energy $BE ( ▼ 4.53% )  
went from the small-cap index straight to megacap territory, a first since 2008, on its data-center power story.

Wise $WISE ( ▲ 2.48% )  
fell on a Belgian money-laundering probe into about $583 million of suspicious transactions.

easyJet $EZJ ( ▼ 0.72% )  
rose after US firm Castlelake said it's weighing a bid worth more than $4 billion.

IBM $IBM ( ▲ 6.93% )  
rose after Trump said it's going to go up a lot more.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed early, then pared the move to sit near 4.47. The dollar edged higher. Both tracked the oil story more than anything coming out of the Fed. Friday's jobs report is the next real test.

Policy Watch

Fed Kevin Warsh runs his first meeting this month. The oil spike flipped the market's read on him, from likely cuts to a real shot at a hike by year end.

Fiscal & Trade

• ISM manufacturing hit 54 in May, a four-year high, on stronger new orders and production.

• Morningstar pushed back on a Labor Department plan to put private equity into 401(k) accounts, warning it lowers the standard plan sponsors owe to savers.

International

• US forces intercepted two Iranian ballistic missiles aimed at American troops in Kuwait overnight.

• Trump said he had a productive call with Netanyahu: no Israeli troops to Beirut, and Hezbollah agreed to stop shooting.

• Iran's foreign minister said the ceasefire covers all fronts, including Lebanon.

What to Watch

Friday Jobs Report 
May payrolls land Friday morning, the first big read for the Fed under Warsh. A strong number pushes the hike bet further. Watch wage growth.

Broadcom Earnings
Broadcom reports Wednesday, the last big chipmaker this quarter. It's a clean tell on whether AI spending is still building.

Apple's WWDC 
Apple's developer conference starts Tuesday. The market wants proof that new Siri and Apple Intelligence features are finally ready to matter.

The Strait of Hormuz 
Oil is the swing factor for inflation right now. Watch whether ships keep moving through the strait and whether the Israel and Hezbollah pause holds.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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