June 17th Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning

It's Warsh's first day running a Fed meeting.
Trump picked him to cut rates, and he's inherited a room that's whispering hikes.

The thing I care about today is 2:30, his first press conference, where we find out how much he actually wants to change. Chips are green and the Dow's at record highs this AM.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. SpaceX Is About to Land in Your Index Funds.

Everyone's talking about it passing Amazon. The thing actually worth knowing is that the big index providers are adding it this summer, so it's about to show up in a lot of 401k accounts that never went looking for it. It's a volatile name, swinging about three times harder than bitcoin, and it's the only trillion-dollar company that doesn't turn a profit yet. Not a reason to panic, just worth knowing what you'll be holding.

2. The Chip Bounce Is Carrying the Market This Morning.

When semis sink the S&P tends to go with them, and Tuesday they had their second-worst day of the year. They're bouncing back today, and that's the whole reason Nasdaq futures are green. Intel's leading it after starting production on its most advanced chip, which moves it closer to a deal to make chips for Apple. The thing to watch is whether yesterday was real selling or just a one-day wobble.

3. The Consumer Is Still Spending, and the Fed Is Watching.

Retail sales came in this morning well above what economists expected, so people are still out there buying. Trump also called the Iran deal "not final," which nudged oil up a touch off its three-month low. Both lean the same way, a little more pressure on prices, just as the Fed weighs whether it's done cutting for a while. Worth keeping in the back of your mind into the 2 o'clock decision.

Market Overview

Today’s Sponsor

The Electrification of Heavy Machinery Has a Ground Floor

Tesla did it to cars. Now the same shift is coming for excavators, forklifts, cranes, and military equipment. The difference is that nobody has owned this moment yet — until RISE Robotics.

Their technology strips hydraulics out of heavy machinery entirely and replaces it with a patented electric actuator. No fluid. Full digital control. Built for the autonomous machines that are coming whether the industry is ready or not. The Pentagon is already a customer.

Last Round Oversubscribed. $9.7M in revenue already on the board. Dylan Jovine of ‘Behind the Markets’ spotted it early. The Wefunder community round lets anyone invest alongside institutional backers.

Limited Shares Allocation Available.

Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

CarMax $KMX ( ▼ 0.19% )  
Higher premarket after Q1 profit came in at $1.31 a share against the 95 cents Wall Street wanted. A strong consumer here gives the Fed's hawks one more reason to sit tight.

La-Z-Boy $LZB ( ▼ 7.2% )  
One of the morning's biggest movers after Q4 profit beat and retail sales rose double digits. Furniture is the first thing people stop buying when they get nervous.

Lionsgate Studios $LION ( ▲ 13.85% )  
Lower premarket after Netflix flatly denied any interest in buying the studio. The stock ran hard yesterday purely on those merger reports. Today is the air coming out of a deal that was never real.

Figma $FIG ( ▼ 2.86% )  
Up after Citi started coverage at buy, calling out a $25 billion market it thinks is barely tapped. First big bank buy ratings on a young stock tend to pull in money that was waiting for cover.

AST SpaceMobile $ASTS ( ▼ 6.08% )  
Higher after launching three more satellites to build out its space based cell network, riding a SpaceX Falcon 9 to orbit. The launch keeps it glued to the hottest name in the market right now. Progress on the network is what the bulls have been waiting to see.

Oracle $ORCL ( ▼ 2.24% )  
Slightly lower after a report that Microsoft walked away from a $3 billion deal to lease its cloud capacity over security worries. Oracle pushed back and says Microsoft is still a customer and partner.

What to Watch

IPO’s

MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide on IPO’s happening this year.

Fed Decision (2:00 PM ET)
No move today, that's locked. The action is the dot plot, the grid where each official marks where they see rates going. The Street expects it to show one hike by year-end, though Warsh may skip submitting his own dot entirely. Also watch if the Fed drops the line hinting its next move is a cut.

Warsh's First Presser (2:30 PM ET)
Warsh has spent years saying the Fed talks too much, so the news is what he changes. He may stop giving his own rate forecast and rework how the Fed communicates. The other thing to listen for is the balance sheet, the pile of bonds the Fed is still holding, and whether he wants to shrink it faster.

EIA Crude Inventories (10:30 AM ET)
Industry data last week showed stockpiles dropping much more than expected. If the official numbers confirm it, oil supply is still tight even with the Iran deal in play. A surprise build would push crude back toward its lows.

- John

Today’s Sponsor

Kalshi: Trade the 2028 nominations. Vance, Newsom, Rubio, AOC — markets are live now. Put your political instincts to work. Get $10 free. No house. Cash out anytime. Claim Your $10.