June 15th Pre-Market

Good Morning

Futures are up big this morning and this one feels earned. Oil is back below $80, the (4th?) Iran deal looks real, and there's a signing ceremony scheduled this Friday in Switzerland.

Good news is good news, and the market knows it. Wednesday's is the Fed meeting, and cheaper oil doesn't automatically mean lower rates. But let's enjoy this.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Markets Called Peace. The Signing is set for Friday.
The U.S. and Iran agreed to stop fighting, signing set for Friday in Switzerland, Hormuz reopening the same day. Oil is below $80 for the first time since March. The text hasn't been released and Iran's nuclear piece got deferred to 60 days of further talks. The market is pricing the outcome before the paperwork exists this A.M.

2. Fox Bought Roku. The Market Punished Fox.
Fox is buying Roku for $160 a share in a cash-and-stock deal worth $22 billion. Fox dropped -11% premarket, Roku barely moved. It closes in 2027, so the valuation argument has time to play out.

3. SpaceX: Are You Investing Or Just Trading It?
SpaceX is up in pre, holding its $2 trillion value from Friday's debut. It lost $4.94 billion last year on $18.7 billion in revenue. Vanda Research tracked $118 million in net retail buying Friday, the biggest single-stock retail buy-in they've recorded, funded by selling Micron, Marvell, and Robinhood.

Gina Rinehart disclosed a stake worth more than $1 billion this morning, the largest investment her firm has ever made outside of iron ore.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Micron Technology $MU ( ▼ 1.43% )  
got its target lifted to $1,500 at TD Cowen, which called memory demand structural, not just another up-cycle. But retail spent last week dumping Micron to fund the SpaceX buy, so you've got the institutional call and the retail flow pointing opposite ways.

United Airlines $UAL ( ▲ 2.58% )  
Higher because cheaper oil means cheaper jet fuel. Fuel bulls who shorted airlines on the war premium now have to cover.

Exxon Mobil $XOM ( ▲ 0.28% )  
Lower in pre as oil slides toward $80 on the prospect of Iranian barrels returning. Anyone who bought energy as a war or inflation hedge is now offside and has to decide whether to sell into the signing or ride it out.

Paramount Skydance $PSKY ( ▼ 0.19% )  
Higher after the DOJ cleared its $81 billion takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery on Friday. The federal risk that kept merger arb traders on the sidelines is gone, so they can finally step in, though a state challenge could still surface.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 0.16% )  
Higher on a Kazakhstan deal for a cluster running 100,000 of its newest GPUs. It's badly lagged the chip group all year with retail sentiment at extreme bearish, the exact setup where a real breakout forces the shorts and skeptics to chase.

Freeport-McMoRan $FCX ( ▲ 3.12% )  
Higher as gold catches a bid and the deal eases the case for more Fed hikes. It swings harder than gold itself, so anyone playing rate relief comes here for the leverage rather than the metal.

What to Watch

IPO’s

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The Fed (Wednesday, 2 PM ET)
The trade isn't the hold, it's the dot plot. If the dots show a hike as the base case, which Guggenheim and Capital Economics expect, yields climb and this rally gets capped. .

This Morning's Factory Data
Survey of New York manufacturers just showed new orders and shipments both falling, but prices still rising. That's the combination that makes the Fed's job hardest: a slowing economy where things still cost more. The market is celebrating cheaper oil this morning, but this data says the price problem isn't fixed yet.

Peace Signing Lands On A Closed Market (Friday)
The deal signs Friday and Hormuz is set to reopen the same day, but U.S. markets are closed for Juneteenth. So the reaction to the actual news compresses into Thursday's positioning and the following Monday.

- John

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