June 15th Market Overview

Happy Monday

Stocks ran higher to start the short week after the US and Iran reached a deal to stop fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil slid back near $80 and the Nasdaq had its best day since March (3% as of now). I'm watching Wednesday, because inflation is running a bit hot and the Fed has a real call to make.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. The Market Priced The Oil Relief Before The Oil Moved
Stocks held their gains and crude settled below $80 for the first time since March, all on a deal that isn't signed until Friday. The catch is physical. Reopening Hormuz isn't a switch, it's weeks of clearing tankers and rerouting ships, and traffic sat near zero all day. Crude coming down helps headline inflation, but refined products like jet fuel lag the move and are still well above pre-war levels.

2. Retail Is Selling AI To Buy SpaceX, Right Before Earnings
SpaceX $SPCX held its $2 trillion value into a second close, within range of Amazon. The part that matters for everyone else: retail funded the buying by dumping chip names, with Micron and Marvell among the heaviest sold, the biggest single-stock retail selling since late 2023. Both report into AI demand this week. So this isn't just enthusiasm for a new ticker, it's retail pulling money out of AI exposure right before the catalysts that have driven the whole market.

3. The Fed Hold Is Priced. The Risk Is What Warsh Signals.
Futures put a hold at better than 98%, so Wednesday isn't about the rate, it's about Warsh's first read on inflation as chair. Here's the setup nobody loves: CPI is at a three-year high and the live debate is a hike, not a cut. The market is leaning on the Iran deal to cool prices and let the Fed stay put.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

United Airlines $UAL ( ▲ 4.01% )  
is headed for a record close. Cheaper crude takes pressure off jet fuel, which brightens the profit outlook into the back half of the year.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 3.13% )  
pushed back above a $5 trillion value as the chip trade came alive again. Its new bond sale drew about $85 billion in orders against a $20 billion target.

Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( ▲ 7.02% )  
hit an all-time high as money rushed back into semiconductors on the deal news.

Madison Square Garden Sports $MSGS ( ▼ 1.27% )  
touched record highs after the Knicks won their first NBA title since 1973.

Big Name Updates

Coinbase $COIN ( ▲ 6.55% )  
and Robinhood $HOOD moved up as Bitcoin climbed back above $66,000 on the risk-on mood.

Tripadvisor $TRIP ( ▲ 2.98% )  
rose after agreeing to sell its restaurant booking platform, TheFork, to American Express for $700 million.

Yum Brands $YUM ( ▲ 0.16% )  
is reworking the KFC menu worldwide, pushing tenders and new sauces to move past the bucket.

Other Notable Company News

Delta Air Lines $DAL ( ▲ 1.55% )  
gained alongside United as the jet fuel worry eased.

Marathon Petroleum $MPC ( ▼ 4.58% )  
fell with the rest of the energy group as crude dropped.

Royal Caribbean $RCL ( ▲ 6.55% )  
rose with the cruise names on the cheaper fuel outlook.

Renault $RNO ( 0.0% )  
teamed up with French defense firm Thales to build a new armored vehicle for the military.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Yields slipped as cheaper oil cooled inflation fears, with the 10-year Treasury edging lower. The dollar softened against most major currencies. The week's two big events: a 20-year bond auction Tuesday and the Fed on Wednesday. Markets are closed Friday for Juneteenth.

Policy Watch

Fed
Kevin Warsh runs his first meeting as Fed chair Wednesday, and rates are widely expected to hold. Two soft data points landed Monday that give him something to weigh against hot inflation:

• Factory activity in the New York region slowed more than expected.

• National manufacturing output stalled for the first time this year.

Iran
The actual terms of the deal are still under wraps, expected within two days. One open question: Iran's state media says the toll-free passage may only last 60 days before fees kick in, which is not how the White House describes it.

Trade
Trump threatened tariffs on French wine and spirits unless Paris drops its tax on US tech companies. Shares of the French makers took it in stride.

What to Watch

The AI company quietly automating every Walmart distribution center. 
23 billion in orders on the book.

It's just one of seven names in this free MarketBeat report.

Fed Decision Wednesday
The rate call comes at 2 pm Eastern, then Warsh's first press conference as chair. He has spent years arguing the Fed should say less, so how much he chooses to say will set the tone.

Iran Signing Friday
The formal signing is set for Switzerland. The thing to watch is whether the toll dispute gets cleared up and whether ships actually start moving through the strait.

Retail Sales Wednesday
A fresh read on whether shoppers kept spending through higher prices last month.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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