June 13th Market Overview

Happy Friday, the 13th….

Risk-off ruled today as Israel-Iran tensions sent markets into defensive mode.

Oil posted its biggest one-day gain in years from fears of Iran cutting oil supply. Defense contractors up as the war dogs come out sniffing (sadly). Consumer sentiment data showing Americans are feeling better about the economy despite all the chaos.

Let's dig in...

Executive Summary

1. Risk-off reactions: Israel’s nuclear facility strikes and Iran’s drone retaliation sent markets into classic defensive mode with energy and gold leading safe-haven flows
   

2. Energy supply shock: Crude oil posted massive gains on Strait of Hormuz disruption fears while defense contractors Lockheed Martin $LMT ( ▲ 3.66% ) and RTX $RTX ( ▲ 3.34% ) capitalized on conflict escalation
   

3. Payments disruption: Visa $V ( ▼ 5.0% ) and Mastercard $MA ( ▼ 4.62% ) faced heavy selling after Walmart and Amazon reportedly explore proprietary stablecoins to bypass card networks
   

4. Economic resilience: Consumer sentiment jumped to 60.5 from 52.2, beating estimates and showing inflation expectations dropped despite geopolitical chaos
   

Market Overview

Key Market Drivers

1. Geopolitical risk premium returns: Israel-Iran military exchange triggered classic risk-off flows with energy and defense outperforming while travel and tech sold off
   

2. Oil supply shock concerns: Crude posted biggest single-day gain since 2022 on Strait of Hormuz disruption fears. Energy analysts targeting $120+ oil if shipping routes close
   

3. Fed policy implications shift: Oil price spike complicates rate cut timeline as inflation pressures compete with potential economic slowdown from conflict
   

4. Consumer sentiment beats expectations: University of Michigan index jumped to 60.5 from 52.2, well above 54.0 estimate, suggesting domestic resilience despite external shocks
   

Stock Spotlight

Lockheed Martin $LMT ( ▲ 3.66% ) gained as Israel’s reliance on F-35 fighter jets highlighted the defense contractor’s strategic importance in Middle East operations.

Exxon Mobil $XOM ( ▲ 2.18% ) and Chevron $CVX benefited directly from crude price gains across upstream operations as energy became the day’s winning sector.

Visa $V ( ▼ 5.0% ) and Mastercard $MA fell on reports that major retailers are exploring stablecoin alternatives that could eliminate billions in processing fees.

American Airlines $AAL ( ▼ 4.86% ) declined as oil price spikes threatened fuel cost margins while Middle East tensions raised travel safety concerns, forcing flight cancellations.

Whirlpool $WHR ( ▲ 3.06% ) gained after Bank of America upgrade to neutral, citing the company’s domestic manufacturing advantage for navigating tariff policies.

Big Name Updates

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 1.38% ) reclaimed the top smartphone spot in China for May with global iPhone sales up year-over-year across April and May. The company now targets spring 2026 for its major Siri upgrade featuring personal data integration.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 2.09% ) partnered with Deutsche Telekom to build the EU’s first industrial AI cloud for European manufacturers, expanding enterprise market reach.

Boeing $BA ( ▼ 1.68% ) faces potential fleet grounding in India after the Ahmedabad 787-8 crash killed 241 passengers, adding to ongoing safety challenges.

Adobe $ADBE ( ▼ 5.32% ) beat Q2 estimates with EPS of $5.06 versus $4.98 expected and raised full-year guidance, signaling confidence in Digital Media growth.

Other Notable Company News

Archer Aviation $ACHR ( ▼ 14.83% ) dropped after announcing an $850 million stock offering following recent air taxi program developments.

Zscaler $ZS ( ▲ 0.17% ) received Wells Fargo upgrade to overweight with price target raised to $385, citing potential for strong billings growth in fiscal 2026.

AST SpaceMobile $ASTS ( ▲ 3.93% ) secured an 80-year spectrum agreement covering US and Canada markets through settlements with Ligado, Viasat, and Inmarsat.

Palantir $PLTR ( ▲ 1.64% ) outperformed the broader market decline as investors viewed the data analytics platform as a geopolitical tension beneficiary.

AstraZeneca $AZN ( ▼ 0.77% ) announced a $5.2 billion partnership with Chinese biotech for chronic disease drug development.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields climbed despite the risk-off environment as oil price inflation concerns outweighed traditional safe-haven demand. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.413%

• Inflation fears from oil prices dominated geopolitical flight-to-quality
• Fed policy flexibility now questioned with energy costs rising

Policy Watch

Trump's Iran ultimatum expires
The President's 60-day nuclear deadline hit today as he told reporters he was "read in" on Israel's strike plans. Called the attack "excellent" while demanding Iran "make a deal before there is nothing left."

Escalation-as-negotiation strategy
Using military pressure to force diplomatic compliance rather than seeking immediate de-escalation. Markets treating this as oil-bullish until Iran capitulates or tensions ease.

Economic tightrope
Trump needs oil prices to moderate to avoid economic damage, but is using conflict to pressure Iran into nuclear concessions.

• Vehicle tariffs threatened: Additional increases beyond current levels to pressure automakers into US manufacturing investments

• Tax bill analysis released: Congressional Budget Office shows top 10% of households gain $12,000 annually while bottom 10% lose $1,600 under Trump's broader spending plan

• GENIUS Act advancing: Stablecoin regulatory framework enabling Walmart $WMT and Amazon $AMZN to explore payment alternatives threatening traditional processors

• Rare earth supply shift: India halted exports to Japan following China's restrictions, benefiting MP Materials $MP as US seeks domestic supply chains

• Fed pressure continues: Administration pushing for rate cuts despite pursuing policies that could stoke inflation through energy and trade channels

What to Watch

1. Strait of Hormuz developments: Any signs of Iranian shipping disruption could push crude toward $120 per barrel. Monitor vessel tracking and Iranian military positioning near the critical waterway.
   

2. Federal Reserve meeting response: Watch for acknowledgment of shifting inflation risks as oil price gains compete with labor market softening signals. Policy flexibility now constrained.
   

3. Defense spending announcements: Track potential military aid increases to Israel or broader NATO commitments. Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman remain key beneficiaries.
   

4. Stablecoin regulatory developments: Follow Congressional action on GENIUS Act as Walmart and Amazon exploration threatens traditional payment processors.
   

5. Oil technical levels: Brent’s hold above $70 and WTI above $65 determine whether energy inflation becomes persistent Fed concern or temporary geopolitical spike.
   
   
   Thanks for reading 🙂
   
   - John
   

Today’s Sponsor

A New Chapter in Home Construction

What if new-home construction were nearly as easy as opening a book? That’s the story with BOXABL.

How? By using assembly lines to condense homebuilding from 7+ months to hours, BOXABL ships readymade houses to their final destination. Then, they’re unfolded and immediately livable.

They’ve already built 700+. But the real transformation’s still coming.

BOXABL’s currently preparing for Phase 2 – combining modules into larger townhomes, single-family homes, and apartments. And until 6/24, you can join as an investor for just $0.80/share.

They already fully maxed out a $75M investment campaign once, so don’t wait around.

Invest in BOXABL Now

_{*This is a paid advertisement for Boxabl’s Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at https://invest.boxabl.com/#circular}