June 12th Market Overview

Happy Friday

SpaceX got its open, got its pop, and made Musk the first trillionaire. The rotation out of AI that everyone braced for this morning never really showed. Oil slid again, and the Iran deal is now down to a weekend signing.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. The Pop Happened, The Rotation Didn't
SpaceX opened above its IPO price and kept climbing past $2 trillion, making it worth more than Musk's other company, Tesla, on its first day. The morning worry was that investors would sell Nvidia and the other AI names to free up cash for SpaceX. That selling mostly didn't show.

2. The Iran Deal Is Down To The Signing
Pakistan, the country mediating this, says both sides now have a final agreed text, with a signing floated for Sunday in Switzerland. Oil has been carrying an extra cost for months on the risk this conflict spreads, and that cost kept bleeding out today, leaving crude near the low eighties.

3. Consumer Sentiment Came Off The Floor
The University of Michigan's confidence survey climbed in early June after two straight record lows. Cheaper gas did most of the work, and lower income households felt it most since fuel eats more of their budget. When people feel better, they spend, and spending is what drives the economy.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Goldman Sachs $GS ( ▲ 2.93% )  
led the banks higher as lead-left bookrunner on the SpaceX deal. It splits the top fee with Morgan Stanley, around $100 million apiece out of a $500 million pool. The real signal is bigger than one paycheck. Wall Street just proved it will write huge checks to finance the AI buildout, and OpenAI and Anthropic are next in line.

SpaceX $SPCX ( ▲ 25.76% )  
opened at $150, ran past $170, and cleared a $2 trillion cap to become the sixth most valuable US company on day one. Analysts can't make the math work. Morningstar's fair value sits at $63 a share, and even one bull called the growth needed to justify the price "borderline comical."

EchoStar $SATS ( ▼ 11.07% )  
sold off hard despite owning an estimated 3% of SpaceX. That flips this morning's read completely. The pre-market thesis was that forced ETF buying would prop up the proxies. Instead cash went straight into SpaceX itself, and the proxy names got dumped.

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▲ 1.17% )  
buckled under record traffic around the open, with users reporting outages for about a half hour starting near 11:40 a.m. The company says essential systems recovered by midday. Brokers had braced for this wave, and it still strained the pipes, which tells you how lopsided retail demand was.

Big Name Updates

Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 0.62% )  
did not get abandoned. The fear was Musk's retail crowd dumping it to chase SpaceX. Shares ended higher, though still down on the year.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.26% )  
sat roughly flat on the day. The AI trade held its leadership even with all the SpaceX noise pulling attention.

AMD $AMD ( ▲ 5.38% )  
caught a bid after Citi moved it to buy with a $575 target. The thesis is Meta becoming a far bigger chip customer than the street expects.

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▲ 1.04% )  
finished green and helped steady the tech tape after spooking the market earlier this month with its big equity raise.

Other Notable Company News

Rocket Lab $RKLB ( ▼ 9.37% )  
fell with the rest of the space group as money skipped the proxies and went into SpaceX direct.

AST SpaceMobile $ASTS ( ▼ 14.5% )  
dropped on the same dynamic, down with the smaller space names.

Adobe $ADBE ( ▼ 7.39% )  
stayed weak after the CFO exit, the second executive departure in three months, even with an earnings beat and AI revenue past $500 million.

Carnival $CCL ( ▲ 3.36% )  
held its gain as oil slid, since fuel is a cruise line's biggest swing cost.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields barely moved, with the 10-year sitting near 4.48%. The dollar was flat while gold ran higher on the day.

Policy Watch

International
The G7 runs June 15 to 17 in the French Alps, right after the expected Iran signing, so the weekend deal feeds straight into those meetings. Trump spent the morning warning Iran to get its act together even with the text agreed, a reminder the signing isn't fully in the bag.

The UK economy shrank in April, down a tenth of a percent, with the war's drag showing up in the numbers.

What to Watch

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23 billion in orders on the book.

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The Weekend Signing
A deal could be inked Sunday in Switzerland. Markets are closed when it lands. Sign it clean and oil gaps down with risk up Monday. Stall it and the war premium snaps back.

OpenAI And Anthropic Are Next
SpaceX was the test, and a strong open clears the runway for the other mega IPOs. The flip side is supply. A wave of new stock plus slower buybacks could cap the market until it digests.

SpaceX Options And ETFs
Cboe expects to list SpaceX options as soon as Tuesday, with more than two dozen ETFs already filed. Next week's moves get driven by index buying and lockups as much as the business.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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