June 11th Pre-Market

Good Morning

Yesterday was a nasty day in the market, this morning everyone's acting like it never happened.

Futures are green, chips are bouncing, maybe the dip-buyers are out? I think today is really about tomorrow. SpaceX goes public Friday at $1.75 trillion, the biggest listing ever, and some of this week's chip selling was probably just people raising cash to buy in. I’m not overthinking today or even this week. Most of it is everyone clearing the decks before the main event.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Oracle Beat. Got Punished Anyway. 
   Oracle beat and raised its profit outlook, and the stock is down hard. The market stopped caring about profits and started caring about the AI bill: $70 billion in capex guided this year, funded with $40 billion in new debt and equity. The real sin was holding the 2027 revenue target flat instead of raising it. That's the second name in a week to get hit for it, after Broadcom. Starting to look like a pattern.
   

2. Iran Just Got Bigger. So Did Oil. 
   This isn't a winding-down story. Trump posted this morning that the US will hit Iran "very hard tonight" and move to seize its oil infrastructure, including Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran's crude exports. Oil flipped higher toward $90 on the threat, the opposite of yesterday's read. The market wanted a ceasefire trade.
   

3. Inflation Ran Hot. The Core Stayed Calm. Again. 
   Wholesale prices jumped 1.1% in May against the 0.7% expected, the hottest annual rate since 2022. Everyone's going to point at that headline and flinch. Don't. Strip out food and energy and the core came in at 0.4%, below forecast, the same split we saw in CPI yesterday. The headline is just the gas pump again. Take energy out and there's barely a story here.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Intel $INTC ( ▼ 0.82% )  
is higher premarket after Bank of America double-upgraded it straight to buy from underperform, betting agentic AI sparks a wave of CPU demand. That's a rare bull call on a name most of the Street had left for dead.

Navan $NAVN ( ▲ 0.92% )  
is the biggest premarket mover after raising full-year revenue and profit guidance. The read-through is bigger than the stock: corporate travel budgets are holding.

Applied Materials $AMAT ( ▼ 0.44% )  
is up premarket as the other side of the Oracle trade. Oracle's massive capex guide is bad for Oracle but good for the companies selling the picks and shovels. The bigger the hyperscaler spend, the longer Applied Materials' order book runs, and the harder it is to stay bearish on chip equipment.

Alcoa $AA ( ▼ 9.47% )  
is bouncing after a brutal Wednesday. Morgan Stanley called the drop overdone, kept its buy rating, and pinned the selloff on temporary pressure in the alumina business.

Lennar $LEN ( ▼ 2.93% )  
reports today, the cleanest housing read of the week. With the rate story flipping from cuts to maybe-hikes, the number that matters is demand: are buyers still showing up, and how much is Lennar paying in incentives to drag them in.

Adobe $ADBE ( ▼ 1.89% )  
reports after the close, the day's test of whether AI features turn into real revenue. The Street wants proof, not promises, so the guidance matters more than the print.

What to Watch

IPO’s

MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide.

ECB Rate Decision (Today) 

The European Central Bank is expected to hike, possibly kicking off a wave of increases from major central banks. The tone is how hard global policymakers lean on inflation sets the backdrop for next week's Fed.

10-Year Treasury Auction (1:00 PM ET) 
Rates are the whole story today. This is a live test of who'll lend at these yields with inflation this hot. Weak demand, yields up, stocks down into the close.

SpaceX IPO (Friday) T
he biggest listing ever, near $1.75 trillion, priced at $135. Oppenheimer's already out at outperform, $190 target. Forget the rocket, watch the cash loop. If traders sold chips this week to fund the buy-in, a strong debut sends that money back into the AI names. A weak one strands it. One curveball: Iran says it now treats Musk's regional assets as military targets, including a Starlink ground station. Pricing a record IPO into that is its own risk.

- John

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