June 10th Market Overview

Happy Wednesday

Ugly close. Like I said this morning, the inflation print was an oil problem wearing an inflation costume, and the market agreed and moved on by lunch. What pulled us to the lows this afternoon was war escalation, not the CPI. Trump said he would hit Iran hard today, oil closed higher, and the tape bled into the bell. The rotation I flagged at the open held all day.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

The Afternoon Was the War, Not the Inflation Print
By midday the CPI was old news. The leg lower came when Trump said Iran took too long and he would strike hard today. Oil closed up, with WTI back near 90 dollars and Brent above 93. Stocks finished near their lows. The Fed's next move now hangs on a war, not on the data.

The Rotation Held, and You Could See Where the Money Went 
Chips fell for a fourth day in five, but the cash did not leave the building. It moved into the boring stuff. Coca-Cola, TJX and even chip-equipment maker Applied Materials all closed at record highs on a red day. That is a rotation, like I said this morning, not a breakdown.

Amazon Knocked the Freight Stocks Down
Amazon said it will open its trucking arm to any business, not just sellers shipping into its warehouses. The carriers got hit fast. Old Dominion, Saia and XPO all closed lower on the news. When Amazon enters your pricing, your margins become the product.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Citigroup $C ( ▼ 1.01% )  
held up while the rest of the big banks fell, after Trump praised the firm for ranking first in US M&A advisory by value last quarter. Worth noting it sits seventh for the full year, so this is a quarter, not a trend.

Chewy $CHWY ( ▼ 2.06% )  
closed lower after cutting its full-year sales forecast. The CEO says they are still taking market share, which is the line every retailer uses when the top line slips.

Super Micro $SMCI ( ▼ 27.98% )  
finished as the worst AI name on the board after this morning's 7 billion dollar raise. The read across matters more than the stock. When an AI hardware name has to raise cash just to fill orders, the rest of the group starts wondering who is next.

SharkNinja $SN ( ▼ 0.2% )  
got a fresh overweight from Piper Sandler with a 150 dollar target. The pitch is the beauty and home push, which went from a sliver of sales to a real chunk in three years.

Big Name Updates

Trump Media $DJT ( ▼ 4.53% )  
paused its plan to spin off Truth Social. It still wants the nuclear fusion merger with TAE done this year. The stock is down hard on the year and the strategy keeps changing.

SoftBank $SFTBY ( ▼ 3.82% )  
slid in Tokyo after a margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake stalled. They are hunting for other funding now. When the most aggressive AI bull has to scramble for cash, pay attention.

Other Notable Company News

Starbucks $SBUX ( ▲ 1.39% )  
is weighing options for its Japan business, including a stake sale, per Bloomberg. Japan is one of its biggest markets at roughly 2,100 stores.

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▼ 2.16% )  
and Meta $META stayed under pressure, both tied to the same fear that hit Super Micro: big equity raises that dilute holders.

Today’s Sponsor

5 Zacks experts scan thousands of publicly traded companies.

 Then selected one apiece →  See them now.

Every company also carries a strong Zacks Rank, meaning earnings estimates are already trending upward. These aren't companies you simply hold and hope.

These are positioned to start moving.

Download “5 Stocks Set to Double now”.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

10-year auction I flagged this morning. It went off fine. The government sold 39 billion dollars in notes and yields barely moved all day, even with the hot CPI in the mix. The bond market clearly did not flinch, with the 10-year sitting around 4.53 percent.

The dollar firmed, and gold closed below its 200-day average, a line big institutions watch and a big reason the selling there picked up speed.

Policy Watch

Fed 
New chair Kevin Warsh runs his first meeting next week. The hot headline keeps the rate-hike argument alive, though a hold is still the base case. The real question is the one I asked this morning: does oil keep the headline hot into the fall. Separately, Trump's pick to run the labor statistics bureau told the Senate he would protect the data from political pressure.

Fiscal and Trade 
The government collected 22 billion dollars in tariffs last month and refunded the exact same amount, so net tariff revenue for May was zero. That is the Supreme Court ruling against Trump's tariffs showing up in the books.

International 
The Bank of Canada held its rate at 2.25 percent for a fifth straight meeting, blaming the oil shock and US trade uncertainty. The European Central Bank meets today and tomorrow and is expected to lift by a quarter point. In Japan, central bank chief Kazuo Ueda was hospitalized and will miss the June 15 meeting, and the yen weakened on the news.

What to Watch

The AI company quietly automating every Walmart distribution center. 
23 billion in orders on the book.

It's just one of seven names in this free MarketBeat report.

The SpaceX Valuation Fight 
The Friday listing is set to price near 135 dollars a share. The real story is how far apart the smart money is. Morningstar values the company at 780 billion, while ARK sees 2.5 trillion by 2030. Pre-IPO futures already knocked about 300 billion off the projected value this week.

PCE Later This Month 
This is the inflation gauge the Fed actually targets, so it carries more weight than today's CPI. Watch whether the energy shock is leaking into core prices.

The Strait of Hormuz 
Every Gulf headline is now an oil headline, and oil is the inflation story. Watch for talks restarting or the strikes getting worse.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

What happens when you throw out the GTM playbook

That investor was wrong. Gamma is now worth $2B, with 50M users and more than half their growth driven by word of mouth.

They're one of 6 AI-native startups in HubSpot for Startups' free Bold Bets Playbook. Replit grew revenue 50x after half the team pushed back on the strategy. Ramp generated 100M+ views from a single stunt. Clay's co-founder wouldn't hang up a sales call until the prospect DMed him in Slack.

Each one took a GTM risk most founders would never greenlight. Each one paid off.

Get the free Bold Bets playbook