July 9th Market Overview

Happy Thursday

Stocks rose and oil slipped, even as the US and Iran traded fire again. Chips did the heavy lifting, with Micron out front ahead of tomorrow's SK Hynix debut.

War headlines get a shrug and a chips are getting all the attention.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Chips Pop, But Big Tech Owns July so Far
Semis got a one-day lift, led by Micron on its $3 billion plan and building hype for tomorrow's SK Hynix debut. Zoom out though: the real move this month has been money heading back into Big Tech after chips cooled off from June highs. Apple's climbing again, and even Nvidia is outrunning the rest of the chip group. Today was a bounce, not a trend change.

2. Markets Ignore The Middle East
The US struck 90 targets in Iran, and Iran hit back at US-allied countries. Stocks advanced anyway. Oil fell after Trump said Iran called wanting a deal. Traders look more numb to the fighting by the day.

3. Wall Street Eyes AI Cash Flows 
Apollo's Torsten Slok flagged the huge spending going into cloud data centers. His point is simple: this whole AI rally leans on that cash flow showing up on schedule. It's the one thing worth watching while the rest of the market keeps climbing.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Micron $MU ( ▲ 4.56% )  
said it will put up to $3 billion into the US chip supply chain, including money to help GlobalWafers expand a wafer plant in Texas. Shares led the chip group higher.

Mara Holdings $MARA ( ▲ 10.11% )  
bought a big powered land site in Matagorda County, Texas. The deal roughly doubles its potential power capacity to about 4.8 gigawatts for data centers and Bitcoin mining.

AstraZeneca $AZN ( ▼ 5.09% )  
dropped after its heart disease drug Wainua failed a late-stage trial. The drug missed its main goal of cutting deaths and heart emergencies versus a placebo.

Paramount $PARAA ( ▼ 5.93% )  
traded lower on worries about its Warner Bros. Discovery merger. A group of state attorneys general is expected to file an antitrust suit against the deal soon.

Big Name Updates

Meta $META ( ▲ 4.04% )  
plans to double its computing power by 2027 and start making its own AI chip, called Iris, in September. It's also spending about $10 billion on its first Canadian data center, in Alberta.

PepsiCo $PEP ( ▼ 3.24% )  
beat on revenue but came up short on profit. North American shoppers pulled back at the grocery store, and the CEO tied it straight to gas prices.

Costco $COST ( ▼ 4.04% )  
slipped after June sales grew slower than May. Executives said May got a lift from high gas prices, which pull bargain hunters into the warehouse.

Netflix $NFLX ( ▼ 0.12% )  
got a price target cut from Citi, which kept its buy rating. The firm pointed to soft viewership and money chasing chips instead.

Other Notable Company News

Five Below $FIVE ( ▲ 2.04% )  
got an upgrade to outperform at Mizuho, which likes how well new customers are sticking around.

Palantir $PLTR ( ▼ 2.47% )  
signed a deal with Rackspace to run its software for regulated and mid-market customers.

Bloom Energy $BE ( ▲ 1.32% )  
rejected a short-seller report from Hunterbrook, calling its accounting claims false and misleading.

Wall Street Is Crowded Into The Wrong AI Stocks

The ones supplying the chips, the cloud capacity, and the data tools everything else runs on.

Stockearnings put together a free report on 9 AI stocks I am watching. 

No eBook, no homework. Just the list and the reason each one made it.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 30-year bond auction cleared today without much drama. Treasury yields cooled across the board as investors looked past the worst of the war fears. The dollar drifted lower too.

Policy Watch

The Federal Reserve 
A few strategists are floating a rate hike later this year, something that looked off the table just months ago. The thinking:

• The oil premium from the Middle East keeps energy costs high.

• Heavy AI spending keeps demand up for power and metals.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh argues AI will bring prices down over time. That thesis is about to get a real test.

International 
China's consumer inflation stayed weak in June, while producer prices rose at their fastest pace in nearly four years. Soft demand at home is still keeping a lid on prices.

What to Watch

The AI company quietly automating every Walmart distribution center. 
23 billion in orders on the book.

It's just one of seven names in this free MarketBeat report.

SK Hynix Listing 
The South Korean memory giant starts trading in the US tomorrow. Demand ran more than seven times the shares available, the second hottest debut behind SpaceX this year. Real test for the AI memory trade.

Strait of Hormuz Traffic 
Crossings through the waterway slowed to a near standstill today. The world has adapted so far and prices are holding. A real physical disruption would change that fast.

- John

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