July 8th Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning

Well, the ceasefire lasted about three weeks. Trump called it over this morning, oil's back up, and futures are red across the board.

Gold actually fell this morning. On a war headline.

To me this says traders aren't scared of the war, they're scared of paying more for oil. This pushes the Fed toward raising rates instead of cutting them, which is why I care way more about what's in those Fed minutes at 2 today than anything happening at the open.

Let’s dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil Is The Headline. The Fear Trade Isn't Buying It.

Everyone sees Brent near $78. Fewer see that hike odds for this month went from roughly one in four to better than one in three overnight, and a Fed forced hawkish by energy does not fade the way oil headlines do.

Now watch what isn't moving: gold is down again this morning, its fourth straight decline, and the VIX is barely up. This is being priced as a supply problem, not a war.

2. The Chip Selloff Is About Crowding, Not Earnings

The Kospi entered a bear market overnight with Samsung and SK Hynix making up half the index, and that concentration is the tell. Nvidia has lost about a trillion in value since May while analysts raised estimates the whole way down.

3. Apple Just Made The Opposite Bet

While the market pushes chips aside, Apple locked in $30 billion of Broadcom supply through 2031, its biggest U.S. manufacturing deal ever. Nobody commits five years of silicon spend into demand they doubt. The people with the best view of the order book are extending, not trimming.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

SpaceX $SPCX ( ▼ 6.83% )  

trying to hold its $150 IPO opening price while Bezos raises $10 billion for Blue Origin at a $130 billion valuation. Private money is paying up for space exposure the public market just spent two days selling.

Diamondback Energy $FANG ( ▲ 3.93% )  

Leading energy higher with Occidental and APA on the oil spike. Funds that spent weeks positioning for de escalation are underweight and forced to chase.

United Airlines $UAL ( ▼ 3.16% )  

Falling with Carnival and Norwegian as crude near $75 rewrites the fuel bill. Airlines that didn't hedge fuel now have to eat the cost or raise fares into a softening consumer.

Rivian Automotive $RIVN ( ▼ 18.12% )  

Down again after its worst day since early 2024. The 75 million share offering forces existing holders to either average down into dilution or step aside.

Estee Lauder $EL ( ▼ 0.54% )  

Lower after its restructuring estimate grew to $1.75 billion from $1.55 billion. Holders who bought the turnaround story now have to decide if a plan that keeps getting pricier is still a plan.

Bath & Body Works $BBWI ( ▼ 5.93% )  

Cut to sell at Goldman on fears third party distribution cannibalizes its own stores. Funds benchmarked against sell ratings have to trim, and the premarket tape shows it.

What to Watch

IPO’s

MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide on IPO’s happening this year.

FOMC June Minutes (2:00 PM ET)
Warsh said almost nothing at his first press conference, so these minutes carry unusual weight. If the internal debate reads hawkish with oil already moving, September hike pricing hardens and rate-sensitive names take the hit. If the language is scrubbed clean, that's your preview of a Fed that says less on purpose.

Levi Strauss Earnings And Costco June Sales (After The Bell)
A clean consumer read landing just as energy costs climb again. Soft Costco numbers and the higher oil weaker consumer narrative owns tomorrow's tape.

- John

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^{The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period.}