July 7th Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning

Samsung posted the best quarter in its history and got sold off, so basically the good news was already priced in. The crowd is rotating into cheaper value funds to dodge the AI selloff, but the biggest value ETF is up four times the S&P this year mostly because Micron was in it and is up 670% since January.

Let’s dig in…

Today's Big Picture

A Record Quarter Wasn't Enough For Samsung
Samsung forecast its best quarter ever, near nineteen times last year's profit, and the stock still got sold in Korea. Chips are red worldwide this morning, with Micron leading the slide here. The lesson is that the good news is already in these prices. Every chip name reporting this season now faces that same bar.

SpaceX Joins The Nasdaq-100 Before The Open
Every fund tracking the index is forced to buy SpaceX starting today. The IPO banks also just got cleared to publish, and their targets run from $63 at Morningstar to $800 at Raymond James. When Wall Street disagrees by that much, nobody actually knows what this company is worth. Expect heavy volume today.

The Dow Is Green While Chips Fall
Dow futures point up this morning even as the Nasdaq points down. That split says money is moving into software and steadier names, not leaving the market. The Dow closed above 53,000 for the first time on yesterday.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 0.61% )  
green as it launches a $25 billion bond sale this morning. Borrowing that big to fund AI buildout, on the day the market is questioning AI spend, is a statement.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 0.37% )  

Slipped premarket after Reuters reported China's DeepSeek is designing its own inference chip to lean less on Nvidia.

Crinetics $CRNX ( ▼ 0.47% )  

Roughly doubled after Vertex $VRTX agreed to buy it for about $10 billion in cash, $85 a share, for its hormone-disorder drugs.

Fiserv $FISV ( ▼ 1.05% )  

Moved higher after the Wall Street Journal reported talks to sell its debit card network to big banks including JPMorgan and Bank of America. The banks want a route around federal caps on debit fees, so both sides have reason to keep this alive.

Rivian $RIVN ( ▲ 8.11% )  

Fell premarket even though delivery and revenue guidance beat estimates. It plans to sell 75 million new shares, and holders care more about that dilution than the beat.

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▼ 0.96% )  

Held green even as it cut 4,800 jobs and admitted its game studios lost money on past deals. The market reads the cuts as cleanup while AI and cloud spending climbs, so buyers stay in.

What to Watch

IPO’s

MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide on IPO’s happening this year.

Fed Minutes (Wednesday, 2:00 PM ET)
The first minutes under new chair Kevin Warsh land tomorrow, and Governor Waller just said risks have flipped toward inflation.

SK Hynix U.S. Listing (Friday)
SK Hynix, Samsung's main memory rival, begins trading on the Nasdaq Friday in a listing worth around $28 billion. Landing days after this selloff, it is a clean read on whether investors still want fresh chip exposure.

Oil And The Strait Of Hormuz
Iran fired missiles at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, the channel that carries close to a fifth of the world's seaborne oil. Crude bounced off its lowest level since late February, and US-Iran talks are going nowhere. Cheap oil has quietly pushed the Dow's run, so any real disruption works against it.

- John

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