July 29th Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning

Iran fired missiles at a US base in Jordan overnight, all intercepted, and oil is right back up pushing 6% this AM. A short lived three days of cheaper gas, on the morning the Fed decides our fate of course.

Dow carried the market past couple days but its not looking great today.

Fed at 2, Warsh takes questions at 2:30. Microsoft and Meta earnings after the close.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil Moved Before The Fed Could
Iran fired missiles at U.S. troops in Jordan, all intercepted, and Trump told Fox News this morning the U.S. will hit back hard. Crude added to its overnight move and sits in the mid-eighties. June's inflation reading came down almost entirely because gas got cheaper, and that reading is the case for holding rates today. The committee votes at 2 on a gasoline number that no longer matches the pump.

2. SK Hynix Missed, And Samsung Is Why
SK Hynix grew operating profit more than sixfold and kept seventy six cents of every sales dollar, up from forty one a year ago. It still came in under estimates on both revenue and profit, and Jefferies pointed at Samsung pricing memory more aggressively. Korea's index paused twenty minutes and closed down six, its second halt in two days, and it's still up a third for the year. A price fight between two suppliers is a different thing than AI demand slowing, and this tape is treating them as the same thing.

3. The Dow Hasn't Led A Year Since 2016
The Dow is up about ten percent this year against roughly eight and a half for the S&P and seven for the Nasdaq, and it sits within one percent of a record. When the Dow and Nasdaq split directions this year, the Dow was the one higher more often than not, a flip from last year. The Nasdaq spent yesterday flirting with a ten percent drop from its high. P&G is the drag this morning, so that lead gets tested today.

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Procter & Gamble $PG ( ▲ 0.17% )  
Down on a revenue miss with volume flat across every segment, plus fiscal 2027 guidance under consensus and a $1 billion cost headwind attached. Every consumer name reporting behind it, Starbucks and Chipotle tonight, now gets asked whether their volume is flat too.

Ford $F ( ▲ 1.91% )  
Up on a second guidance raise this year, not the quarter itself, since automotive revenue missed. Analysts who modeled tariffs and input costs eating Ford's year now have to rebuild those estimates twice in six months.

Generac $GNRC ( ▼ 0.98% )  
Up on a $2.91 print against $2.01 expected, plus a second hyperscale supply deal and roughly $1 billion in new orders. Anyone selling the AI buildout through chips has to explain why the power suppliers keep booking more of it.

Vertiv $VRT ( ▼ 6.27% )  
Down despite beating on earnings and revenue, because organic growth near eighteen missed a consensus closer to twenty four. Every AI infrastructure holder now has to decide whether they own the beat or the growth rate, and today the growth rate is setting the price.

Seagate $STX ( ▼ 8.53% )  
Up on guidance of roughly $7.30 a share against the $5.80 the Street carried, and Western Digital $WDC ( ▼ 6.91% )  is riding along.

Visa $V ( ▲ 1.12% )  
Down on fiscal 2026 guidance that matched what analysts already had, paired with 2,600 job cuts, about seven percent of headcount. Holders now have to decide if the cuts are margin discipline or management bracing for slower volume, because in line guidance doesn't answer that.

What to Watch

Upcoming IPO’s?
MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide on IPO’s happening this year.

Microsoft's Capex Line (After The Close)
Microsoft guided to roughly $190 billion of capital spending this calendar year and had deployed about $30 billion of it through March. BofA says Azure needs growth near forty percent for the stock to hold. Alphabet raised its own spending number last week and got sold for it, so the thing to watch is whether Microsoft confirms $190 billion or quietly walks it back.

Hormuz
Iran rejected Oman's plan for an even split of the strait and wants the entire inbound lane. Roughly a fifth of the world's oil moved through there before the war. Every day this stays open, the war premium stays inside the inflation numbers the Fed reads in September.

- John

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