July 28th Market Overview

Happy Monday

Mixed day as the market is kinda looking past the EU trade deal solidified over the weekend and focused on what really matters this week → big tech earnings. The Fed meets Wednesday but its practically “mag7” earnings week with Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple rolling our earning reports this week.

Let's dig in...

Summary

Trade Deal Reality Check 
The U.S.-EU agreement sets 15% tariffs on European goods, up from 2.5% but avoiding Trump's threatened 30%. The euro dropped as EU officials walked back the $600 billion investment pledge, calling it "intentions" rather than commitments. European critics are calling it capitulation.

Tesla's Chip Strategy 
Tesla secured a $16.5 billion deal with Samsung to manufacture next-gen AI6 chips in Texas. The move signals Tesla's push to control its autonomous driving supply chain and represents this year's largest semiconductor partnership.

Earnings Week Setup 
Over 150 S&P 500 companies report this week, led by Microsoft $MSFT, Meta $META, Amazon, and Apple. Investors want proof that massive AI spending is paying off given current tech valuations.

Technical Pause Signal 
After five straight record closes, historical data suggests caution. Only 41% of similar streaks extend to six days, with average returns turning negative in the following month.

Market Overview

U.S. Stock Indexes, This Week so Far

Stock Spotlight

Coinbase Global $COIN ( ▼ 2.26% ) hit six straight down days after Monness Crespi downgraded to neutral. The firm warned valuations rely too heavily on sentiment rather than actual trading volumes, with crypto's bull run now 31 months old.

Nike $NKE ( ▲ 0.76% ) got upgraded to overweight by JPMorgan, citing a multi-year recovery plan expected to drive strong earnings growth through 2030. The 2026 World Cup could provide a major boost.

GE Vernova $GEV ( ▼ 0.54% ) took downgrades from both Guggenheim and Mizuho to neutral. Both firms called valuations stretched after the power equipment maker's big rally this year.

Big Name Updates

Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( ▼ 1.9% ) raised its MI350 AI chip price by $10,000 to $25,000, showing confidence in demand despite competition from Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.86% ).

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▲ 0.47% ) faces more antitrust heat as the DOJ targets its search payments to Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.51% ). That revenue stream generates billions annually.

Alibaba Group $BABA ( ▼ 0.83% ) launched Quark Smart Glasses with live translation, payments, and hands-free calling powered by its Qwen AI model.

MongoDB $MDB ( ▲ 6.8% ) got an overweight rating from BMO Capital, citing leadership in databases and AI workload growth potential.

Other Notable Company News

Cheniere Energy $LNG ( ▼ 1.07% ) gained modestly on the EU's $750 billion energy purchase commitment, though investors remain skeptical about delivery timelines.

EVgo $EVGO ( ▲ 1.06% ) secured $225 million from five banks to add over 1,500 charging stations, including autonomous vehicle hubs.

WeRide $WRD ( ▲ 2.8% ) became the first company to get robotaxi permits in Saudi Arabia, expanding to six countries total.

McDonald's $MCD ( ▼ 0.01% ) is selling eight Hong Kong properties for $153 million in leaseback deals as commercial real estate stays weak.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.42%, reflecting expectations for continued elevated rates despite trade agreements. The dollar strengthened across major currency pairs, with the euro bearing the largest decline.

Policy Watch

The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting Wednesday with rates expected to remain at 4.25%-4.5%. Market focus centers on guidance regarding potential September rate cuts, particularly given Friday's jobs report expectations of just 102,000 additions versus June's 147,000.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent continues negotiations in Stockholm to extend the August 12 China tariff truce by 90 days

• President Trump confirmed the global baseline tariff for non-negotiated countries will range between 15%-20%

• A federal judge rejected attempts to open Fed interest rate meetings to the public

• China unveiled its global AI action plan while injecting 495.8 billion yuan through reverse repos
  

Today’s Sponsor

Finally, a powerful CRM—made simple.

Attio is the AI-native CRM built to scale your company from seed stage to category leader. Powerful, flexible, and intuitive to use, Attio is the CRM for the next-generation of teams.

Sync your email and calendar, and Attio instantly builds your CRM—enriching every company, contact, and interaction with actionable insights in seconds.

With Attio, AI isn’t just a feature—it’s the foundation.

• Instantly find and route leads with research agents

• Get real-time AI insights during customer conversations

• Build AI automations for your most complex workflows

• Join fast growing teams like Flatfile, Replicate, Modal, and more.

Start for free today.

What to Watch

Magnificent Seven Earnings Cascade

Meta and Microsoft report Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Apple Thursday. These results will determine whether AI infrastructure investments justify current market valuations. Watch for Microsoft's Azure growth rates, Meta's Reality Labs losses versus AI advertising gains, Amazon's AWS margins, and Apple's China iPhone sales trajectory.

Federal Reserve Communication Strategy

Chair Jerome Powell's Wednesday press conference will move markets more than the rate decision itself. Look for shifts in "data-dependent" messaging and acknowledgment of labor market cooling, particularly given Friday's expected jobs slowdown.

July Jobs Report Friday

The consensus expects 102,000 job additions, down from June's 147,000. A weaker number could give the Fed more reason to consider September rate cuts, while strength could push expectations back.

China Trade Extension Talks

The August 12 deadline for US-China tariff discussions creates binary outcomes. Extension would provide market relief, while escalation could trigger risk-off positioning. These negotiations are expected to prove far more contentious than the European agreement.


Thanks for reading 🙂

- John