July 22nd Market Overview

Happy Wednesday

Market finished a bit lower today with tech leading the way down. Brent settled above $94 after an 11th straight night of U.S. strikes on Iran, and of course bets on a Fed rate hike next week climbed right alongside it.

Tesla missed earnings after the bell. I think oil is the thread to follow this week, more than any single earnings report.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Oil Puts Rate Hikes Back On The Table

Brent crude settled at $94.07 after the 11th straight day of U.S. strikes on Iran. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is down to a trickle, with nine ship crossings yesterday. Futures traders spent the week raising the odds that the Fed hikes at next Wednesday's meeting. Cheap energy was doing quiet work for inflation all year, and that help is on pause.

2. Super Micro Has The Orders And Now The Margins

Super Micro Computer $SMCI booked more than $60 billion of new orders in its fiscal fourth quarter and guided gross margins to roughly double its earlier target. Backlog ended the year at a record. Order books were never the question in AI hardware. Whether anyone makes real money filling them was, and this is the first clean answer we've gotten.

3. Tesla Misses On Earnings, Beats On Revenue

Tesla $TSLA came up short on profit even though sales came in ahead. One quarter was always going to matter less than the roadmap here: robotaxi timing, the Cybercab, Optimus, and where the $25 billion capital plan actually goes. Specific answers on the call move this stock more than the miss does.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

GE Vernova $GEV ( ▼ 8.16% )  
missed on earnings but raised its full-year revenue outlook to $45.5 billion to $46.5 billion. Backlog is at $176 billion, and some customers are now ordering equipment for delivery in 2029 and beyond.

Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( ▲ 1.43% )  
will supply Anthropic with up to two gigawatts of graphics processors starting in 2027. AMD is also putting $5 billion into the AI lab as part of the deal.

AT&T $T ( ▲ 3.01% )  
earned 65 cents a share against a 59-cent estimate, with revenue of $31.6 billion coming in slightly light. Customer adds carried the quarter.

Big Name Updates

Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 1.1% )  
cut jobs inside its AI research group and said it is moving people and money toward its highest-priority work.

Reddit $RDDT ( ▼ 8.18% )  
fell on a report it may block Google from using its content for AI training. That licensing deal is a real piece of the revenue story.

Nike $NKE ( ▼ 1.76% )  
will cut most third-party online sellers in China starting in 2027, routing sales through about a dozen platforms and its own app. The company wants the customer relationship in-house.

Other Notable Company News

Rocket Lab $RKLB ( ▲ 0.94% )  
won a $266 million Air Force contract for 12 suborbital launches, due for completion by the end of 2028.

Airbus $AIR ( ▼ 10.13% )  
set a 2029 operating profit target of 12 billion to 13 billion euros and approved a 5 billion euro buyback.

Equinor $EQNR ( ▲ 6.6% )  
reported $11.48 billion in adjusted earnings before tax. Its finance chief warned Europe's gas market is fragile heading into winter.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year closed at 4.664, a hair under its high for the year. The 30-year held above 5.1, and adjusted for inflation that's the highest since 2008.

Bonds are tracking crude right now, not economic data. Next Wednesday's Fed meeting is the next real test.

Policy Watch

Fed

Next week's meeting got a lot more interesting, and oil did that. Thomas Martin at Globalt Investments said the honest part out loud: inflation is elevated and there isn't much the Fed can do about a supply shock. Rates don't reopen a shipping lane.

Fiscal & Trade

• The current global tariff expires Friday. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer won't say what replaces it or when, only that we should stay tuned.

• A new tariff on Brazilian imports took effect today.

• Imported generic drugs face tariffs starting in August 2028.

• The U.S.-Mexico-Canada review could run into 2027. The administration wants interim deals with both countries by year end.

International

The yen touched 163 to the dollar, a four-decade low, and Japan's finance minister said the country is ready to act on it. UK inflation came in cooler than forecast for June, below both the euro zone and the U.S. Two reminders that the inflation picture isn't the same everywhere.

What to Watch

The AI company quietly automating every Walmart distribution center. 
23 billion in orders on the book.

It's just one of seven names in this free MarketBeat report.

The Global Tariff Deadline

The current tariff expires Friday. The thing to watch is whether replacement duties arrive immediately or the rate simply lapses for a stretch.

Pump Prices

The national average is above $4 a gallon. Gas hits inflation data faster than almost anything else, and it's the number the Fed will be looking at next week.

Amazon Earnings, July 30

Amazon $AMZN reports next Thursday after the close. Cloud growth and capital spending are the numbers, plus any detail on the AI job cuts.

- John

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