July 17th Market Overview

Happy Thursday

Red screens again with a decent bounce off morning lows…. chips doing the dragging and the Nasdaq closing out a losing week.

Apple taking the crown as the world's most valuable company, and it got there by being the AI laggard for the most part.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Apple Takes The Top Spot By Doing Less AI

Apple passed Nvidia as the world's most valuable company this morning, up double digits over the past month while Nvidia bleeds. Investors spent two years calling Apple the AI laggard. Today that low exposure is exactly why money is hiding in it.

Chips Are One Close Away From An Official Bear Market

Global chip stocks have erased about $3.3 trillion in value since June 22. The semiconductor index needs to close below 11,708 today to make the bear market official, and it has been hugging that line all afternoon. JPMorgan's cross-asset desk calls it profit taking in a crowded trade. For perspective, Goldman notes the S&P has nearly doubled since the end of 2022, putting this bull market among the strongest since 1928, and pullbacks inside runs like that are normal.

The Fed Hawks Are Getting Louder

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said businesses are now telling her the Fed needs to act on inflation, a first in her tenure. Dallas's Lorie Logan called for modestly higher rates a day earlier. Import prices just posted their biggest annual gain in almost three years, and the only reason consumers feel better is cheap gas. Gas is already climbing again.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Netflix $NFLX ( ▼ 7.22% )  
traded at its lowest level since fall 2024, on pace for its worst single day in more than four years. Beyond the light guidance, the company will now publish its viewership report once a year instead of twice. Slower growth and less transparency is a rough combination.

SpaceX $SPCX ( ▼ 3.53% )  
fell again after Thursday's aborted Starship launch. Musk says two Raptor engines get replaced and the next attempt comes early next week. The stock has now shed more than $1 trillion in value from its mid-June peak and trades below its IPO price.

Intuitive Surgical $ISRG ( ▼ 12.92% )  
is heading for its worst day since early 2022 despite beating on earnings and revenue. Management said expired health insurance subsidies dented US robotic procedure growth last quarter. It won't be the last device maker to say that.

Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B ( ▼ 0.36% )  
is up on a red day as money rotates into defensives. Barron's estimates Buffett bought back somewhere between $5 billion and $11 billion of stock last quarter, based on his own filings.

Big Name Updates

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▼ 2.68% )  
fell for a second straight day after Bloomberg reported its next Gemini model is months behind schedule. The July 22 earnings call just got a lot more important.

Micron $MU ( ▲ 1.51% )  
is now down about a third from its June record high as traders back away from this year's most explosive memory trade.

TSMC $TSM ( ▼ 3.34% )  
shares in Taiwan sold off hard a day after the company committed another $100 billion to US investment. The market is asking whether this gear stays competitive long enough to earn the money back.

Other Notable Company News

Alcoa $AA ( ▼ 4.23% )  
beat estimates but cut its 2026 alumina production outlook.

GSK $GSK ( ▼ 1.83% )  
halted its chronic cough drug after failed late-stage trials, a program it picked up in the $2 billion Bellus deal.

Volvo Cars 
said China deteriorated faster than expected, with sales there falling by more than a third and quarterly profit cut in half.

Yum Brands $YUM ( ▼ 1.95% )  
is pulling Taylor Farms lettuce from Taco Bell nationwide after a parasite outbreak sickened more than 1,600 people across five states.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasurys caught the safety bid today, with the 10-year yield easing toward 4.5 even after a hot import price number. Gold snapped its losing streak but is still down about a quarter from January's high and heading for a weekly loss.

Policy Watch

Iran War

The US completed a sixth straight night of strikes, hitting bridges and targets near Bushehr, home to Iran's only nuclear plant. Iran fired back at US bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, and Kuwait reported hits on a power and water desalination plant.

• A vessel was forcibly boarded in the Gulf of Aden, raising fears the Houthis re-enter the fight and choke Red Sea shipping.

• Brent is back above $86 and oil is on track for a double-digit weekly gain.

• The Strait of Hormuz handles about a fifth of the world's oil traffic. That is the number that matters if this keeps escalating.

International

Xi used a Shanghai speech to pitch China as the open-source AI provider for the developing world. The strategy is access, not secrecy, and it is aimed straight at US dominance.

What to Watch

The AI company quietly automating every Walmart distribution center. 
23 billion in orders on the book.

It's just one of seven names in this free MarketBeat report.

Today's Chip Close

11,708 on the semiconductor index is the bear market line. Where it settles at 4pm tells you whether the technical damage is official or the dip buyers showed up.

Alphabet Earnings, July 22

Two down days on the Gemini delay report means the market wants answers on the call, not just cloud numbers.

Gas Prices

The entire sentiment rebound rests on cheap gas, and pump prices are turning higher with diesel at $5. If that holds, next month's reading gives it all back.

- John

Today’s Sponsor

Manufacturing Legend Backs Greenfield Robotics

Howard Dahl spent decades building the machines that feed America. His family invented the Bobcat skid steer. The air drills planting nearly every commodity crop globally? Those too. Now Dahl is manufacturing weed-cutting robots for Greenfield Robotics out of his Fargo factory, and he wrote his own check on top of it. 

Greenfield's current fleet is sold out, with over $1 million in total revenue and robots in the field since 2020. Chipotle’s venture arm and KingsCrowd Capital are also on board. The robots slice weeds with centimeter precision, replacing herbicides linked to environmental damage and rising health concerns among farmers. 

Greenfield is now in Test the Waters under Reg A+. Reserving shares today locks in a 5% bonus that can grow to 20% the week the round opens to the public.

Reserve Your Shares

_{Greenfield Robotics is Testing The Waters under tier 2 of Regulation A. No money or other consideration is being solicited, and if sent in response will not be accepted. No offer to buy the securities can be accepted and no part of the purchase price can be received until the offering statement filed by the company with the SEC has been qualified by the SEC. Any such offer may be withdrawn or revoked, without obligation or commitment of any kind, at any time before notice of acceptance given after the date of qualification. An indication of interest involves no obligation or commitment of any kind. “Reserving” shares is simply an indication of interest. There is no binding commitment for investors that reserve shares in this manner to ultimately invest and purchase the shares reserved of the company, or to purchase any shares of the company whatsoever.}