July 13th Market Overview

Happy Monday

Oil went up $80. Gold went down 2.5%.

That should not happen on a day the US and Iran are trading strikes. It really means the market is pricing an inflation bill, not a war.

Then Waller went and said earlier today that a rate hike is back on the table. Core inflation started climbing in December, months before oil moved.

CPI lands tomorrow.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Waller Brings A Rate Hike Back Into View

Fed governor Christopher Waller said a rate increase belongs on the table if this week's inflation data stays hot. His key point: core inflation started climbing in December, months before the war lifted energy prices. That takes away the easy excuse. Traders now put July hike odds at better than one in three.

The Memory Trade Shakes

SK Hynix had its worst day ever in Seoul, three trading days after a hot Nasdaq debut. The Kospi fell hard enough to trigger a trading halt. Raymond James said it was positioning, not fundamentals, and I agree. Nothing changed about memory demand over the weekend. What changed is that everyone owned the same thing.

Gold Missed Its Moment

Oil ran toward $80 on the blockade news and gold went the other way, dropping under $4,050. Treasuries sold off too. Safe havens are supposed to work on a day like this. When they don't, the market is telling you it fears the inflation bill more than the war itself.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

SK Hynix $SKHYV ( ▼ 9.36% )  
posted its steepest one day drop on record in Seoul, and the new U.S. listing followed it down. There was no trigger. That is the part worth sitting with.

Sandisk $SNDK ( ▼ 13.57% )  
took the worst of the memory selling, giving back a chunk of a monster year.

Micron $MU ( ▼ 4.86% )  
went with it. The stock is still one of the best performers on the board in 2026.

SpaceX $SPCX ( ▼ 4.21% )  
traded lower, within a few bucks of its $135 offering price. Bank of America started coverage last week at Buy with a $235 target.

Big Name Updates

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 3.36% )  
fell with the group as investors trimmed AI exposure across the board.

Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM ( ▼ 2.56% )  
reported record June revenue and a record quarter. The stock still finished lower. That is what a crowded trade looks like.

JPMorgan $JPM ( ▼ 0.47% )  
drifted lower into Tuesday's report. Analysts expect one of the strongest quarters the big banks have ever printed.

Paramount Skydance $PSKY ( ▲ 1.59% )  
rose after 12 states led by California sued to block its Warner Bros. Discovery deal. The suit was expected, and traders treated it as one less unknown.

Other Notable Company News

Walt Disney $DIS ( ▲ 0.42% )  
picked up a new Buy rating from Benchmark with a $115 target, built on streaming and the cruise fleet.

CCC Intelligent Solutions $CCCS ( ▲ 3.8% )  
moved up after Bloomberg reported Elliott Management built a stake before sale talks started.

Intel $INTC ( ▼ 6.89% )  
fell with the chips even after announcing a 5.7 billion dollar expansion at its Ireland campus.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Yields rose with oil. The ten year climbed to about 4.61 and the two year to roughly 4.27, with the thirty year holding above 5.

The dollar firmed. Bonds selling off into a war headline is not normal behavior, and it lines up perfectly with what gold did today.

Tuesday's inflation report is the next real test.

Policy Watch

Fed

Waller gave the market two things to hold onto. The labor market is not driving prices, and market based inflation expectations are still anchored. He also said that is not a reason to sit still, because once expectations break, the Fed has to move much harder to catch up.

His line of the day: sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option.

Economists expect June inflation to cool to roughly 3.8 on the year, down from 4.2 in May.

Hormuz

• Trump said the U.S. will act as guardian of the strait and be reimbursed at a rate of 20 cents on every dollar of cargo shipped.

• He also reinstated the blockade on Iranian shipping.

• Iran rejected any U.S. role in running the waterway. Both sides struck targets again Monday.

• The White House has not explained how the charge would actually be collected.

Confirmed traffic through the strait fell to 19 ships over the weekend, less than half the week before, per Kpler. Forget the rhetoric. That is the number that moves oil.

Energy

OPEC cut its demand growth forecast again, to 780,000 barrels a day. The International Energy Agency thinks demand actually shrinks this year.

Goldman Sachs says seven Gulf pipeline projects could route a big share of prewar exports around Hormuz by the end of next year. The chokepoint gets less scary over time. Just not this week.

What to Watch

The AI company quietly automating every Walmart distribution center. 
23 billion in orders on the book.

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Bank Earnings Tuesday

JPMorgan $JPM, Goldman Sachs $GS, Bank of America $BAC, Wells Fargo $WFC and Citigroup $C all report. Watch loan growth and trading revenue, not the headline beat.

Kevin Warsh's First Testimony

The new Fed chair goes in front of the House Tuesday morning. This is our first look at whether he lines up with Waller or pushes back.

Producer Prices Wednesday

Consumer prices get the attention. Producer prices tell you what is still in the pipe from energy and tariffs.

- John

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