July 10th Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning

Quiet calendar, loud IPO.

SK Hynix opens today as the biggest foreign listing this market has ever seen, and somehow that's the only thing on the schedule today. Chips are red across the board in front of it. My guess is that's temporary, money ready to rotate into the new listing before it comes back to Micron and the rest once the dust settles.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1.The Analyst Cushion Companies Usually Get Is Gone
Analysts normally trim estimates during a quarter so companies clear a lower bar. This time they raised them, because earnings have been strong enough to justify it, with profit growth tracking above 20% for a second straight quarter. That confidence removes the cushion. Delta just paid for it: beat on revenue, beat on earnings, kept a strong full-year outlook, and the stock is down anyway. Beating is now the minimum, and banks walk into that same setup Tuesday.

2. War Is Hurting Oil Demand, Not Lifting Prices
The IEA says global oil demand shrinks this year, the first drop since 2020. Blocking Hormuz didn't just cut supply, it stranded the Gulf barrels that would have been burned, so consumption falls with the exports. Only 13 tankers moved through the strait Wednesday against a normal 33, and oil still went nowhere. The IEA sees a surplus by year-end once traffic recovers, and that looming glut is capping prices even now. The rate-hike case leans on war-driven oil inflation, and that inflation keeps not showing up.

3. SK Hynix Didn't Need The Money, It Needed You
SK Hynix throws off more cash in two years than this whole $26.5 billion raise, so it wasn't after the money. It wanted American buyers who could never easily reach the stock before. The order book proved that before a single share even traded, pulling in almost $200 billion in demand, with heavyweights like Baillie Gifford and Coatue reaching for billions. So why is Micron red this morning, ahead of a debut everyone wanted in on? Because that money has to come from somewhere, and some of it is getting pulled out of the old memory names to fund the new one.

Market Overview

Today’s Sponsor

7 Stocks to Ride The A.I. Megaboom

The next A.I. boom could create massive winners just like the 1990s tech surge.

We identified 7 small tech companies positioned to benefit from the next phase of A.I. growth.

See them inside this free report 7 Stocks to Ride The A.I. Megaboom.

View the 7 Stocks

Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Delta Air Lines $DAL ( ▲ 2.21% )  

Trading higher after guiding third-quarter profit above the Street and raising its dividend. CEO Ed Bastian says the pricing power airlines gained from expensive jet fuel should stick even as oil cools.

Circle $CRCL ( ▼ 1.65% )  

Up sharply after federal banking regulators approved its crypto focused bank. Stablecoin plumbing now sits inside the regulated banking system, which is the part that changes the competitive map for payments.

Vodafone $VOD ( ▼ 0.08% )  

US shares climbing after French billionaire Xavier Niel bought a stake worth about $6 billion, making him the largest shareholder. Niel built Iliad by starting price wars, so every European telecom board just got a new problem.

Apollo Global Management $APO ( ▲ 1.44% )  

Put in a $7.7 billion bid for easyJet, topping Castlelake and turning the airline into a private equity bidding war. EasyJet's board said this morning it is no longer minded to back the Castlelake deal.

Netflix $NFLX ( ▼ 0.16% )  

Ticking higher on a WSJ report that it's exploring live TV channels and streaming bundles. The subtext is engagement is slipping, and the company reports next week.

Strategy $MSTR ( ▲ 0.02% )  

Up in premarket with Bitcoin pushing back toward $65,000. Crypto is the only green corner of premarket tech, which tells you today's selling is chip specific, not risk off.

What to Watch

IPO’s

MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide on IPO’s happening this year.

JPMorgan And Goldman Report (Tuesday Morning)
Skip the trading revenue and go straight to credit card delinquencies and loan loss reserves. That is the cleanest live read on the consumer that exists. Clean credit books feed the broadening story. Rising reserves would be the first domino against it.

Warsh Testifies Before Congress (Next Week)
His first monetary policy testimony as Fed chair, after a first meeting that read hawkish. He wants the Fed giving less forward guidance, which T. Rowe Price argues means bigger swings in short-term yields regardless of what the data says. Anything he says about oil pass-through moves rate bets in real time.

- John

Today’s Sponsor

The 1,700%+ Lesson From SpaceX’s IPO

SpaceX IPO’d at a $1.75T valuation. Three business days later, they were the sixth-most valuable public company.

Those who bought at the opening bell saw a 40% gain. Andreessen Horowitz, who invested back in 2023? 1,700%+. The lesson? Today’s biggest growth comes at the private stage.

It’s why institutions love private-stage opportunities. A similar dynamic’s playing out in lithium, where General Motors backed $1B+ private unicorn EnergyX. Except this time, you can join them.

EnergyX’s patented tech can recover up to 3X more lithium than traditional methods. And with lithium prices up 75% this year and demand projected to grow 5X by 2040, they’re perfectly positioned.

After opening America’s largest lithium production facility of its kind, EnergyX is preparing to unlock up to 13M tons. Become a private-stage EnergyX before the 7/16 deadline.

Invest in EnergyX

^{Energy Exploration Technologies, Inc. (“EnergyX”) has engaged Beehiiv to publish this communication in connection with EnergyX’s ongoing Regulation A offering. Beehiiv has been paid in cash and may receive additional compensation. Beehiiv and/or its affiliates do not currently hold securities of EnergyX.}

^{This compensation and any current or future ownership interest could create a conflict of interest. Please consider this disclosure alongside EnergyX’s offering materials. EnergyX’s Regulation A offering has been qualified by the SEC. Offers and sales may be made only by means of the qualified offering circular. Before investing, carefully review the offering circular, including the risk factors. The offering circular is available at invest.energyx.com/.}

^{Comparisons to other companies are for informational purposes only and should not imply similar results. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market shortfall are forward‑looking estimates and are subject to substantial uncertainty.}