January 9th Market Overview

Happy Friday

Alrighty, jobs came in at 50,000…below the 73,000 expected. Unemployment fell to 4.4% and Stocks rallied.

Hiring is slow but layoffs aren't spiking. That's enough for markets right now. On housing, Trump ordered $200 billion in mortgage bond purchases to push rates down. Mortgages have been stuck near 6.2% for two years. Buyers are frozen.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Jobs Miss But Unemployment Drops

The economy added 50,000 jobs in December versus 73,000 expected. Unemployment fell to 4.4%. This is the first clean BLS data since the shutdown ended. The Fed has room to hold steady at the January meeting.

2. Trump Orders $200B Mortgage Bond Purchase

The president directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds. The goal is to force rates lower and make housing more affordable. If executed, this could shave 25 basis points off mortgage rates almost immediately.

3. Meta Signs Nuclear Deals for AI Power

Meta $META inked agreements with Oklo $OKLO and Vistra $VST to supply nuclear power for data centers. Big Tech has realized the grid can't handle AI growth. This is the sector moving from speculation to signed contracts.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Intel $INTC ( ▲ 10.8% ) 
got public praise from Trump after a meeting with CEO Lip-Bu Tan. The government converted $9 billion in grants to a 10% equity stake last year and is now Intel's largest shareholder.

Rocket Companies $RKT ( ▲ 9.65% ) 
hit a high not seen since 2021 on the mortgage bond news.

Oklo $OKLO ( ▲ 7.9% ) 
signed a deal with Meta for power from a planned 1.2 gigawatt reactor in Ohio starting 2030. Meta can prepay for the electricity.

Vistra $VST ( ▲ 10.47% ) 
inked 20-year agreements with Meta totaling 2.6 gigawatts from three existing nuclear plants in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Deliveries start late 2026.

Big Name Updates

General Motors $GM ( ▼ 2.66% ) 
is taking a $6 billion charge on its EV pullback and China restructuring. The Orion plant shifts back to internal combustion. Detroit's EV pivot is getting expensive.

Netflix $NFLX ( ▼ 1.18% ) 
saw Goldman cut its price target to $112 ahead of earnings. They want clarity on the Warner Bros. deal before turning bullish.

Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 0.44% ) 
was named Stifel's top eCommerce pick for 2026. The thesis is AWS growth and custom silicon, not retail.

Southwest Airlines $LUV ( ▲ 3.73% ) 
got upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan with a $60 target. JPM thinks they could guide to $5 EPS versus consensus under $3.

Other Notable Company News

Insmed $INSM ( ▲ 3.35% ) 
pre-announced Q4 launch revenue of $145M for BRINSUPRI. Consensus was $67M.

Generac $GNRC ( ▲ 2.68% ) 
was upgraded at Baird on the C&I diesel generator opportunity. Data center backup power is real demand.

TSMC $TSM ( ▲ 1.77% ) 
reported Q4 revenue of $33B, beating estimates by roughly $300M.

Rio Tinto $RIO ( ▼ 3.64% ) 
is back in merger talks with Glencore $GLEN about creating the world's largest miner.

Today’s Sponsor (Me)

This bounce pattern has become disturbingly consistent

-6 signals. 6 bounces.
-100% hit rate in 2025.

The Market Health Dashboard caught every single one.

Why is this edge? Most folks don’t track breadth (how many stocks are up vs down), or the patterns within breadth.

I coded this for myself, something I’m very proud of and stand behind and use everyday.

Here's how I’m catching bounces

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields barely moved on the jobs data. The 10-year sits at 4.17%. The real action is in mortgage-backed securities after the White House directive. Dollar index edged up to 96.46.

Policy Watch

Supreme Court

The Supreme Court didn't rule on Trump's tariffs today. They might announce Wednesday. The big question: can the president impose tariffs without Congress? If the Court says no, most of Trump's second-term tariffs become illegal.

The White House says they have other laws they can use to keep tariffs in place if they lose. Markets are stuck waiting.

Housing Intervention

The $200B mortgage bond directive is a direct intervention into housing finance. If Fannie and Freddie execute, rates could drop 25 basis points or more. This hasn't been done at scale since the 2008 crisis.

Fiscal Reality Check

Tariff revenue exceeded corporate tax revenue in Q4 2025. The government collected $91 billion in tariffs versus $81 billion in corporate taxes. A year ago those numbers were $21 billion and $109 billion. The tax burden has shifted dramatically.

Manufacturing Watch

• Manufacturing jobs fell for the eighth straight month since Liberation Day

• The US has shed roughly 200,000 manufacturing jobs since 2023

• Federal workforce down 274,000 year-over-year, the biggest annual drop since 1953

What to Watch

Bank Earnings

JPMorgan Tuesday. Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citi Wednesday. Goldman, Morgan Stanley Thursday. This is the first real test of 2026 earnings season.

Inflation Data

CPI Tuesday. PPI Wednesday. Any surprise changes the Fed calculus. The market is pricing very few cuts this year.

TSMC Earnings Thursday

Q4 revenue already beat. Now we get forward guidance on AI chip demand. Everything in semis flows through here.

SCOTUS Tariff Decision

Could come Wednesday. Could come in June. The uncertainty is affecting business planning across the board.
Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

Here’s an un-boring way to invest that billionaires have quietly leveraged for decades

If you have enough money that you think about buckets for your capital…

Ever invest in something you know will have low returns—just for the sake of diversifying?

CDs… Bonds… REITs… :(

Sure, these “boring” investments have some merits. But you probably overlooked one historically exclusive asset class:

It’s been famously leveraged by billionaires like Bezos and Gates, but just never been widely accessible until now.

It outpaced the S&P 500 (!) overall WITH low correlation to stocks, 1995 to 2025.*

It’s not private equity or real estate. Surprisingly, it’s postwar and contemporary art.

And since 2019, over 70,000 people have started investing in SHARES of artworks featuring legends like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso through a platform called Masterworks.

• 23 exits to date

• $1,245,000,000+ invested

• Annualized net returns like 17.6%, 17.8%, and 21.5%

My subscribers can SKIP their waitlist and invest in blue-chip art.

Just click this link

_{Investing involves risk. Past performance not indicative of future returns. Reg A disclosures at masterworks.com/cd}