January 5th Market Overview

Happy Monday

U.S. captured Maduro over the weekend and by market open everyone had already moved on to betting which oil companies win the rebuild contracts. Chevron led the day, defense names hit new highs, gold w/ a strong bid too.

We skipped the "what does this mean" phase and went straight to "who benefits."

I'm a little skeptical we've priced in all the implications here but hey, that's Wall Street for you.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Venezuela Regime Change Moves Energy 
U.S. forces took Maduro on Saturday. Trump called for American drillers to rebuild the country's broken infrastructure. Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves but facilities are in terrible shape.
Chevron $CVX is the immediate winner. Energy Aspects says it will take two years and $10 billion just to add 500,000 barrels per day.

Tech Leaders Kick Off CES
Nvidia and AMD CEOs are speaking today at the CES trade show in Las Vegas. Investors are looking for concrete updates on AI product demand to justify current valuations. The market needs to see if the "AI revolution" is translating into sustained hardware orders for 2026.

Global Defense Stocks Rally
Defense contractors hit new highs following the military action in South America. The market sees this intervention as a signal that the administration will be active globally, not isolationist. Order books for weapons makers usually grow in this kind of environment.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Chevron $CVX ( ▼ 0.88% ) 
is the only U.S. oil major still operating in Venezuela. It stands to benefit most from lifting sanctions and ramping up local production.

Valero $VLO ( ▲ 3.25% ) 
climbed because its refineries are designed to process the heavy, sour crude Venezuela produces. That supply has been in short supply for years.

Canadian Natural Resources $CNQ ( ▼ 3.04% ) 
fell on the same news. Venezuelan heavy oil competes directly with Canadian crude, and more supply on the market hurts their pricing power.

Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▲ 0.62% ) 
launched its Wegovy weight-loss pill in the U.S. today. Cash price is $149 a month. Available at Costco and CVS. First oral GLP-1 approved specifically for weight loss.

Big Name Updates

Toyota $TM ( ▼ 0.75% ) 
posted an annual sales gain but warned its North American division lost money. Executives said the industry isn't priced for tariffs yet.

Eli Lilly $LLY ( ▲ 3.93% ) 
slipped as Novo rolled out its oral weight-loss drug. The market is watching to see if Lilly can match pricing and distribution speed.

Lockheed Martin $LMT ( ▼ 2.88% ) 
hit a new high. The aggressive U.S. posture suggests sustained demand for military hardware. Northrop Grumman $NOC also touched records.

Strategy $MSTR ( ▲ 1.98% ) 
rose alongside Bitcoin despite posting a $17 billion paper loss. They bought another $116 million in Bitcoin last week. Saylor isn't changing course.

Other Notable Company News

Halliburton $HAL ( ▼ 1.41% ) 
rallied as investors bet the company wins contracts to fix Venezuela's oil infrastructure.

Coinbase $COIN ( ▼ 1.58% ) 
rose after Goldman upgraded the stock, citing market share gains and improving product suite.

L3Harris $LHX ( ▼ 0.96% ) 
agreed to sell its rocket-engine business to AE Industrial Partners for $845 million.

Equinor $EQNR ( ▼ 0.45% ) 
is seeking an injunction against the White House order halting U.S. offshore wind projects.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Yields pulled back slightly despite risk-on equities. The 10-year dipped to 4.17 as some investors sought safety.

• Bond market is more skeptical of geopolitical stability than stocks right now

• Friday's jobs report is the next major catalyst

Policy Watch

Venezuela Transition 
The White House says it will "run" Venezuela until a transition happens. Rubio walked that back Sunday, emphasizing an oil quarantine rather than direct governance.

• Goal: force debt and energy restructuring

• Near-term uncertainty for global oil flows

Greenland 
Trump renewed his push to buy Greenland hours after the Venezuela strike.

Denmark controls the territory and is now dealing with acquisition pressure from a president who just demonstrated he'll use force to get what he wants.

Prediction markets ticked higher but remain a long shot.

Global Tax Deal 

The OECD announced an updated minimum tax agreement across 145 jurisdictions.

• Protects U.S. multinationals from double taxation abroad

• Prevents retaliatory measures

• Quiet win for corporate earnings

Today’s Sponsor

Could Our Top AI Pick Surpass 18 Nvidias in Value?

Learn more and join Stock Advisor for 50% off!

What to Watch

CES Keynotes 
Jensen Huang and Lisa Su both speak today. Wedbush called this the most important CES in decades. Watch for Blackwell supply chain comments. If Huang sounds cautious, the sector wobbles.

December Jobs Report 
Friday brings the main economic data of the week. ISM Manufacturing showed contraction today. A weak jobs number could reignite recession talk.

Venezuelan Debt 
Sovereign and PdVSA bonds rallied hard. Investors are betting Maduro's removal clears the path for restructuring debt that's been in default since 2017.

Thanks for reading. 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

Earn a master's in AI for under $2,500

AI skills are no longer optional—they’re essential for staying competitive in today’s workforce. Now you can earn a fully accredited Master of Science in Artificial Intelligence from the Udacity Institute of AI and Technology, awarded by Woolf, an accredited higher education institution.

This 100% online, flexible program is designed for working professionals and can be completed for under $5,000. You’ll build deep, practical expertise in modern AI, machine learning, generative models, and production deployment through real-world projects that demonstrate job-ready skills.

Learn on your schedule, apply what you build immediately, and graduate with a credential that signals serious AI capability. This is one of the most accessible ways to earn a graduate-level AI degree and accelerate your career.

Learn More