January 30th Pre-Market

Good morning.

Trump named Kevin Warsh to run the Fed. Dollar is up, gold is down and investors are betting Warsh won't just print money whenever Trump asks. After months of wondering if we'd get a yes-man, markets got someone with credibility. Whether he keeps it under pressure is another question.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Warsh Gets the Fed Job

Trump named Kevin Warsh to replace Powell this morning and bond yields rose on the news. Warsh has been clear about what he wants: smaller Fed balance sheet, lower rates to help small businesses borrow, and he believes AI will keep inflation contained on its own. Real question is whether he sticks to that once Trump starts pushing for aggressive cuts.

Metals Get Crushed

Gold and silver dropped hard on the Warsh news. Silver fell below $100 just a week after hitting that level for the first time. Gold had its widest intraday swing since 2013 yesterday. Investors betting against the dollar are getting out. The guy running the Fed might actually defend the currency, that trade stops working.

Apple Beats, China Rebounds

iPhone 17 sales beat expectations. China revenue grew, the number everyone was watching after months of headlines about local competition. Stock barely moved but demand is there.

Market Overview

Today’s Sponsor

How Mitt Romney Turned $450K Into Up to $100 Million (Tax-Free)

It wasn't stocks. It wasn't real estate. It was a little-known investment vehicle that turned Mitt Romney's $450,000 into as much as $100 million and Peter Thiel used to turn $2,000 into $5 billion within two decades.

Now, thanks to a new executive order, regular Americans can access the same type of investment.

Get more details here

Stock Spotlight

Sandisk $SNDK ( ▼ 0.47% ) 
guided fiscal Q3 earnings between $12-14 per share. Street was at $5.11. Memory demand is real.

Chevron $CVX ( ▲ 0.71% ) 
hit record oil production but revenue came in light. Nat gas prices and refining margins are squeezing the majors.

Deckers Outdoor $DECK ( ▼ 1.9% ) 
raised guidance again. Hoka keeps eating into Nike's running share.

Visa $V ( ▼ 1.81% ) 
beat on earnings as cross-border payment volume accelerated. International travel recovery has legs.

Exxon Mobil $XOM ( ▼ 0.26% ) 
posted its smallest annual profit since 2021. Production is up, but prices aren't cooperating.

Bombardier $BBD.B.TSX ( ▼ 1.63% ) 
got caught in a trade spat. Trump threatened to decertify Canadian jets over Gulfstream certification disputes.

CK Hutchison $CKHUY ( ▲ 0.37% ) 
lost its Panama Canal port contracts after a court ruling. Hands Trump a win against Chinese influence in the region.

What to Watch

December PPI This Morning

Wholesale inflation data drops before the open. This tells us what Warsh inherits. A hot number means less room to cut rates even if he wants to.

American Express Before the Bell

Visa showed cross-border spending is strong. AmEx will tell us if the high-end consumer is still confident or pulling back. Watch guidance more than the quarter.

Bowman on Regulation Tonight

Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman speaks at 5 PM ET on bank oversight. Warsh wants easier rules for smaller banks. Her tone will hint at how much internal pushback he faces.

Shutdown Deadline Midnight Saturday

Government funding expires. There's a deal but the House is away. Could see a brief technical shutdown before they clean it up. More noise than signal.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

What if saving felt as easy as your morning routine?

With Cash App, it can.

Round up your spare change from your coffee runs, save part of every paycheck with direct deposit, and make your savings work for you with up to 3.5% interest. Plus, there are no monthly or hidden fees, or minimum balances.

Save and transfer money whenever you want, and know your money is safe with 24/7 fraud monitoring and proactive security features.

Reach your goals faster with a better way to save that fits into your everyday life.

Start saving

_{Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Prepaid debit cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. See Terms & Conditions.  Eligibility restrictions apply to some benefits. See Terms and Conditions for more information.}