January 30th Market Overview

Happy Friday

Silver dropped 30% today. Gold had its worst day since 1980. Trump picked Warsh for Fed and the dollar ripped.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Worst Day for Metals Since 1980

Silver dropped over thirty dollars. Gold had its biggest single-day drop since the Hunt brothers' corner blew up in 1980. Retail traders piled into leveraged metals positions betting the dollar would tank. Today they got margin called. Warsh's nomination helped kill the debasement trade. The silver short worked out.

Apple Posts Record Quarter

Apple $AAPL hit an all-time EPS record on iPhone 17 demand. Tim Cook called it "simply staggering." China sales came in well above expectations - the fears about losing that market look overblown. One issue: memory costs are rising and that's already built into margin guidance for next quarter.

Warsh Gets the Tap

Trump picked Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair. The dollar rallied because Warsh has credibility with bond markets - he's not a yes-man. But Senator Tillis says he'll block confirmation until the DOJ drops its probe into Powell. Powell's term ends mid-May. If Tillis holds firm, the seat could sit empty.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Sandisk $SNDK ( ▼ 0.47% ) 
guided fiscal Q3 EPS to $12-14 versus the $5.11 consensus. Morgan Stanley called this "the strongest upcycle we have seen in our 30 years covering the memory industry."

Verizon $VZ ( ▼ 0.45% ) 
had its best day since 2008 after beating subscriber targets and raising free cash flow guidance.

Bombardier $BDRBF ( ▼ 2.86% ) 
sold off after Trump threatened to decertify Canadian aircraft and slap them with tariffs until Canada certifies US-made Gulfstream jets.

Big Name Updates

Chevron $CVX ( ▲ 0.33% ) 
beat earnings on record production of 4.7 million barrels per day—highest in over 40 years.

Visa $V ( ▼ 1.81% ) 
beat on strong cross-border travel spending. Stock dipped anyway.

GameStop $GME ( ▲ 1.15% ) 
CEO Ryan Cohen reportedly eyeing a major acquisition to take the company from $11 billion market cap to $100 billion. That's the plan anyway.

Other Notable Company News

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▲ 7.26% ) 
is being considered to manage proposed "Trump Accounts" for children.

Adidas $ADDYY ( ▲ 0.95% ) 
announced a €1 billion buyback after solid quarterly sales.

AstraZeneca $AZN ( ▲ 0.37% ) 
signed an obesity drug deal worth up to $18.5 billion with a Chinese pharma partner.

SoFi $SOFI ( ▲ 2.44% ) 
beat revenue and hit record member count at 13.7 million. Stock got crushed regardless.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Ten-year yield ticked up but held near 4.24%.

Dollar hit its highest level since August on the Warsh news.

December PPI came in at 0.5% versus 0.3% expected. But the annual rate fell to 3% from 3.5% last year, so the trend is still moving the right direction.

Policy Watch

Fed Confirmation Fight

Tillis says he'll oppose any Fed nominee until the DOJ drops its probe into Powell. If he votes no in committee, Warsh's confirmation deadlocks. Could get messy.

Shutdown Watch

Senate close to a deal on five of six spending bills. Homeland Security gets a two-week extension while they fight over immigration enforcement funding.

Iran

Reports Thursday suggested the administration is weighing strikes. Oil moved on the headlines. Worth watching over the weekend.

What to Watch

Metals Monday

Silver went from $114 to $78 in one session. When leverage unwinds this fast, margin calls often keep coming over the weekend. If silver holds above $75-80 Monday, the flush is probably done. If it breaks lower, there's more forced selling ahead. Gold miners like Newmont got crushed today - watch if they find buyers or keep bleeding.

Jobs Report Friday

Nonfarm payrolls drop next week. Fed Governor Waller dissented this week because he thinks the labor market is weaker than the headline numbers suggest. A soft print validates his view and rate cut odds go up. A strong print means the Fed stays put longer. This is the next real catalyst for rates.

Tech Rotation

Microsoft dropped 10% Thursday. Apple dipped today despite a blowout quarter. Nasdaq is lagging. Meanwhile the Russell 2000 is up 5% in January - best month since August. Money is rotating out of mega-cap into small caps. Watch if that continues or snaps back.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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