January 28th Market Overview

Happy Wednesday

The Fed did exactly what we thought they would: nothing. The S&P touched 7,000 for the first time, then gave it back. Gold had its biggest single day dollar gain in history (sound familiar? lol).

The dollar strengthened the same day. That's not “supposed” to happen.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Fed Holds, Two Dissenters Wanted Cuts 
Powell kept rates at 3.5%-3.75%. Two governors voted to cut, making it 10-2. Powell says the economy is solid and policy isn't restrictive. They're sitting tight until the data changes.

Microsoft Beats, Stock Drops 
Microsoft posted $81.3 billion in revenue and $4.14 EPS, both above estimates. Azure grew 39%. None of it mattered. The stock fell 4% after hours as investors focused on the $100 billion annual AI spending run-rate. The market wants proof these investments will pay off.

The Dollar's Biggest Backer is Buying Gold 
The dollar had its worst day since April yesterday. Trump's take: "I think it's great." Tether—whose entire business is dollar-denominated—now holds 140 metric tons of physical gold worth $24 billion. More than Sweden or Mexico's central banks. They're buying 1-2 tons per week.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Carvana $CVNA ( ▲ 0.24% ) 
got hit by a short report from Gotham City Research. They allege earnings are overstated by $1 billion through transactions with companies the CEO's father controls.

Starbucks $SBUX ( ▼ 0.82% ) 
traffic grew for the first time in two years. CEO Niccol says they're ahead of schedule on the turnaround.

Seagate $STX ( ▼ 2.98% ) 
beat on earnings. Cloud customers need storage for AI data. Management says they're fully booked through 2026 and already fielding questions about 2028.

ASML $ASML ( ▲ 1.52% ) 
booked record orders. Foundries are buying advanced equipment regardless of macro conditions.

Big Name Updates

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▼ 0.54% ) 
beat on everything and still sold off 4% after hours. Revenue hit $81.3 billion. Azure grew 39%. But AI capex is running at $100 billion annually and investors want to see returns.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 1.59% ) 
rose on the Beijing approval. Tencent and ByteDance are lining up orders.

Texas Instruments $TXN ( ▲ 0.48% ) 
guided higher. Data center revenue hit $1.5 billion in 2025. Industrial inventory is finally clearing.

Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 0.25% ) 
is cutting 16,000 corporate jobs. Still printing cash, still trimming headcount.

AT&T $T ( ▼ 1.08% ) 
beat expectations. Focused on telecom, ignored the noise.

Other Notable Company News

GE Vernova $GEV ( ▼ 0.89% ) 
could lose $250 million if Vineyard Wind stays frozen by regulators.

Fidelity is launching a stablecoin. Going after Tether and Circle's turf.

Coupang $CPNG ( ▲ 1.99% ) 
rose after the White House told South Korea to back off U.S. tech companies.

PPG Industries $PPG ( ▲ 0.43% ) 
says lower car insurance rates mean more repairs are getting done.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields held steady after the Fed decision. The 10-year barely moved as investors digested Powell's "neutral" stance. Markets are waiting for clearer data before pricing in the next cut.

Policy Watch

Fed Independence
Powell refused to comment on the DOJ probe into Fed renovation spending. He defended attending a Supreme Court hearing on the Lisa Cook case, calling it "perhaps the most important legal case in the Fed's 113 year history."

Dollar Policy 
Treasury Secretary Bessent clarified the U.S. has a "strong dollar" policy and explicitly denied intervening in currency markets. Trump backed this up, saying the dollar is "doing great."

Fed Chair Succession

• Trump has four finalists: Rick Rieder (43% on Polymarket), Kevin Warsh (28%), Christopher Waller (10%), Kevin Hassett (7%)

• Powell has two meetings left as chair before his term ends May 15

• His advice to his successor: "Stay out of elected politics"

Geopolitics 
Trump posted that a "massive Armada" is heading toward Iran. He warned them to make a nuclear deal or face consequences.

What to Watch

Tech Fallout 
Microsoft beat and dropped 4%. Tesla posted its first revenue decline ever. Meta guided above consensus but is spending $70 billion+ on AI. Watch how these names trade tomorrow.

Apple Earnings Thursday 
Services growth and China sales are the numbers that matter.

Fed Chair Announcement
Trump could name his pick any day. Powell has two meetings left. The market will reprice rate expectations based on who gets the nod.

Shutdown Deadline Saturday
Government runs out of funding early Saturday morning. Political theater until it isn't.

Gold Momentum 
Seven straight days of gains. Up nearly $1,000 this month. Central banks and Tether keep buying.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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